If you've ever played a certain Falklands War wargame in an academic or other setting, you are probably familiar with the style of wargame where the two sides do not see each other and work in different rooms. A deciding factor I've found, in any wargame setup this way, is not
the tactical choices you make. It's not the broader strategic approach or leadership style you bring to the fight. It's not the randomness of the dice fucking you over/helping you out. It's not the brilliance of your teammates.

You know who wins these wargames? The side with CoC
experience. The side with data management skills.

The side that fills every white board in the room with every piece of data they can get. The side that is tracking not just enemy losses but clearly displaying their remaining strength, force allocations, logistics constraints
etc etc. You don't need to come up with PIR/CCIRs for a wargame that's a bit much & they'll always be in the room with you. But you can write down the rules, any known victory/loss conditions so no one forgets. Spam that shit everywhere the way you would in a ToC/CoC. When my
class played the Falklands Game i was the J2 for the Argentine forces. We handily sunk the British aircraft carriers, most of their amphibs, & stalled the assault long enough to meet victory conditions. (& This is where my Falklands war jokes come from). Not because we made
brilliant tactical decisions. But because myself & a former soldier had both worked in a battalion ops center. And just asked that each role in the wargame (air/ground/naval commanders and subordinate commanders, logistics, intel & command) maintain a tracking board for their
piece of the pie. As one of the planes got shot down/incap'd we tracked it, clearly in a way we could all read. Doubly so if we destroyed an enemy unit. Keeping the total number of enemy aircraft known to us at the start & the total number remaining, opened flexibility for the
commander to take risks he could not have without fast access to the data. The game ended & we swapped rooms. We were stunned to see they had written almost nothing on their white boards and were not tracking our losses at all. Their randomness made a lot more sense when we
realized they had no data from which to form a plan beyond where they had physically spotted our ships/planes and their guestimate to how much we had left.

Anyway, my point being, I've participated in a lot of war games where the teams are separated/can't see the other's pieces.
The winner is super frequently whomever battle tracks better. And I'm super thankful to my Master Guns and Ops Chief for forcing us to undergo frequent battle drill training that almost entirely consisted of battle tracking invisible armies & keeping massive amounts of data up to
date for the commander. It's made every subsequent war game infinitely more rewarding and I learn more from them.

If you work ops, battalion staff, academic settings that wargame, intel etc etc, make your staffs/teammates battle track during their wargames. See the impact.

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More from @LivFaustDieJung

May 12
Weather happens. Task saturation happens. Unexpected enemy air defense happens. 10 minutes until they can get to you happens.

The idea we'll always have instant air support is an air force fantasy in any conflict, even COIN. Forces need to be able to kill every threat if & when
friendly air can't arrive. Does that mean every Specialist or Lance Corporal needs to be able to smoke a tank from 2000m? No (ok maybe actually). But it does mean the infantry squad either needs something organic to it or one echelon away that can deal with the sudden appearance
of enemy armor, drones, and to a lesser extent, enemy air. This bizarre assumption we'd never ever get into a war where we don't have air superiority before ground troops ever arrived only works if the US gets to choose every war we're involved in & prep for it. Most of the prep
Read 9 tweets
May 11
Excellent thread and it ties together my recent comments on why I think the decision to send (western- bear in mind hundreds of T-72s were sent before this decision) tanks was best served when it could be a whole of NATO. Approach. January saw a ton of announcements from tank
donors, with very vague timelines. That would gradually reveal itself as training nations began publishing video of Ukraine training on their tanks. And Western partners like Gen Milley commented on them being formed into actual battalions & brigades not just being sent back as
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Read 8 tweets
May 11
T-55s, T-62s, older T-72s all deserve mockery that Russia can't field enough modern armor.

All will still kill you. Tank duels are super rare in Ukraine & if you don't have friendly armor or an ATGM all those tanks have to do to survive is stay a few hundred meters past your
RPG/SMAW/CG/LAW etc effective range. And even with those, it usually takes multiple shots to land an effect kill/disable shot. All whilst a 100-125mm cannon and multiple machine guns are aimed at you.

Please do mock Russia for using ancient tanks. But recognize the troops facing
it don't really care if it's T-54 circa 1961 or a T-90M if they can't hurt it & it sits far enough away to dump HE and machine gun fire on them.

A fucking Sherman tank at 1000m away is going to be hell for modern infantry with nothing but handheld AT rockets to defend themselves
Read 14 tweets
May 6
Realistically Russia will *never* be back to where it was militarily in Jan 2022. They had *50* + years of accumulated military equipment they've burned through in barely a year. You don't rebuild that as a struggling economy. Only the Soviets could.

defenseone.com/threats/2023/0…
Russia has lost, per @oryxspioenkop and @Rebel44CZ documented losses *alone*, over TEN THOUSAND pieces of military equipment. This is like wiping out 3/4 of NATOs available combat power. This equipment was amassed over more than half a century, most of which was pre-1991. There Image
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Read 9 tweets
May 5
Hand in hand with my comments about the west needing to adopt sUAS as attritable strike platforms, I think the various articles & think tank pieces on the role of drones as strike platforms in Ukraine is missing the forest for the trees. The articles focus on how novel it is,
almost treating it like "wow the future is crazy" and "what an interesting sideshow" instead of the reality that the war in Ukraine is undeniably altered at a strategic level because of COTS & craft built small UAS that are providing tactical impact that adds up to strategic
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Read 18 tweets
Apr 10
"How do we stop X weapon" is a useful question only if there is an answer that involves "here is the system that can kill that weapon". Missile strikes on Ukrainian cities have an answer- anti-aircraft systems that can down the missiles. That answer comes at a cost though- there
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"Who is more important to protect? Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure away from the front, or Ukrainian military units at the front." There is no "correct" answer here. Both need defending. But Ukrainian cities can't retake ground, Ukrainian military can. And with a limited
Read 22 tweets

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