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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
May 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
If this is true, and it is plausible if terrible, then Ukrainian losses in the whole war on all fronts are a little less than US intelligence estimates of what Russia has lost trying to take just Bakhmut in the last 5 months
US has estimated that Russia has suffered more than 100000 casualties in the last 5 months, most of them around Bakhmut. reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Here is the story. It even has a reference to US estimates of Ukr losses which are higher with 17500 Ukr dead and more than 100k wounded or missing, etc. euractiv.com/section/defenc…
What the story says is that the European intelligence figures come from Ukrainian sources that say the US has got it wrong and overestimated Ukrainian losses. Image

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 13
via @YouTube This is the most remarkable interview that General Zaluzhny has given so far in the war. He delves into his emotions, the history of the war so far, Ukrainian strategy
Its worth a watch all the way through, to get some idea of how Ukrainian resistance has been so effective.
Around 18 minutes Zaluzhny talks about the initial Ukrainian strategy to resist the Russian invasion, how well planned their operations were, and why they were so successful. The first thing they did (which they drilled on a great deal before Feb 24) was to preserve
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 13
Interesting to see the most recent @washingtonpost story about Ukrainian strategy around Bakhmut. Prev the WP has been one of the most critical and pessimistic in its reporting of the Battle of Bakhmut for Ukraine. washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/…
Now, however there is an understanding that not retreating from Bakhmut might have been the right choice because of its impact on Russian forces (which the Ukrainians always said was the point) Image
It brings home the real problems that the reporting and some of the analysis of the war has revealed. There is a reliance on local impressions to try and draw a greater grand strategic vision of the battle. This never works. A small snapshot of a battle more likely distorts…
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 12
Ukrainian counteroffensive, does seem to be a shift in the tone from western and Ukrainian sources. CNN reporting one western source that the Ukrainians are in the ‘shaping’ operation phase (undertaking operations to set the stage for a larger offensive). Image
Ukrainian armed forces reporting an uptick in Russian casualties
Lots of chatter on Russian sources of numerous Ukrainian attacks. An example given by @TheStudyofWar
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 9
A pretty strong indicator of how much modern equipment Russia has left in stock.
Does seem true, only one tank in the entire parade, and that was a T-34.
Sort of hard to get one’s head about this. This Parade, from what I understand, is the ceremonial high point of Putin’s year and a showcase of Russian strength. This is all they can display?
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 8
A really interesting thread by @noclador about how many soldiers the Russians might need to hold their lines. Over the past few months the Russians have built more and more trench lines throughout occupied Ukraine.
The only problem is that at the same time they have squandered so many of the personnel and so much of the equipment needed to hold these lines with their bloodbath advances at Bakhmut and other places.
This will give the Ukrainian offensive a chance of real success. If they can identify parts of the Russian lines that will be lightly held, they should be able to penetrate those.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 6
Ukrainians taunting the Russians a little with the fact that they’ve shot down a Kinzhal almost immediately after they received Patriots. apnews.com/article/russia…
Surprised the Ukr air force spokesperson didn’t say ‘super duper hypersonic’ missile, but you can sense the satisfaction. Image
Also, confirms that the Ukrainians can learn pretty damn quick when they need to.
Read 4 tweets

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