Thread by @MassDara

How will Russian forces fare on the defensive? There are many factors in play. Even though they've constructed many layers of defensive positions and there are forces unaccounted for in recent weeks, the morale of Russian soldiers is variable, from tired to bad -it matters. 1/11

Russian forces built an extensive defensive network in Ukraine. But it is guarded by exhausted or maltreated/ inadequately trained personnel. How will it hold? Personnel maltreatment is their weakness that has only gotten worse since i wrote this a year ago👇2/

I wrote this last year about their professional enlisted army. What is left has been supplemented with the mobilized, who have less experience and training, and less tools to handle combat stress and unexpected situations./3 foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi… via @ForeignAffairs

The mobilized fare even worse. Trained for days or few months, their commanders are often absent (out of GMLRs range). Some are subordinated to Luhansk warlord proxies, bullied, used as 'storm troops.' Now they transition to the defense. /4 meduza.io/en/feature/202…

In just one example, for this group, they met their commander once. He threatened to shoot them and bury them in the forest. They deserted and are now charged. Desertion trials are on the rise; several hundred lately. 5/ en.zona.media/article/2023/0…

Some of these units are heavily attrited as a result of the winter offensive. If units have > 50-60% strength, they are considered non-mission capable in Russian mil thinking and need to be withdrawn and replenished. They could crack under pressure./6

Some elements of the VDV still seem to have combat capability, but it varies. Many are still fighting now only because they were withdrawn from Kherson last fall. They can be shifted around...to a point. They've taken heavy losses too. /7

The Russian network has defensive positions and minefields - a challenge for UAF. It's a large front though, and manned by those with little training and a lot of maltreatment. This is an unpredictable situation for attacker and defender./8

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1656343349983608838?s=46

This is another good look at Russian defensive positions /9

https://twitter.com/inkvisiit/status/1655584386601951238?s=46

Panic can set in quickly in these circumstances, especially w/o good local leaders. For this front line, demoralized and untrained as parts of it are, it is a wild card. The Russians will rely on the defender's advantage, prepared positions, and artillery. VKS = ?? /10

Treating their own as expendable is a critical vulnerability for the Russians in this war. This isn't the first time...it's a cycle of their machine at war, an unhealed trauma that passes down through the generations. /end

thanks @JominiW @bradyafr @Inkvisiit whose work i linked to here.