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Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
@SubramanianKri
May 12, 2023 • 24 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #1 Image
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More from @SubramanianKri

Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
Jun 14
Having covered why @AshokaMody focuses only on -ves w.r.t. India (), this thread shows how incorrect his conclusions are.
He uses (only!) 2 pieces of evidence. As is the fate of attempts to peddle incorrect narratives, both miss the wood for the trees! 1/n
@AshokaMody provides only 2 pieces of evidence: (1) stock of household debt is ~40% GDP in March 2023. (2) Personal loans have ↑ by 25-30%. As I show below, both are selectively sampled to peddle his fear-mongering narrative. 2/n
On (1), i.e. stock of household debt is ~40% of GDP, @AshokaMody ignores that a balance sheet comprises both assets & liabilities + assets can service debt. Stock of debt (i.e. liability) is DWARFED by stock of financial assets at 103.1% of GDP (see ). 3/norfonline.org/research/busti…
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 31
India's GDP growth at 8.2% for FY23-24. An analytical thread:
1. Post Covid, India's growth rate is 9.7%, 7.0% & 8.2%. Feel gratified as in Sep-21, when few believed it, I'd said in many interactions that I expect India to have 7%+ GDP growth (). 1/ntinyurl.com/56dpsh3b
2. This high growth is with moderate inflation of about 5%. At a time when advanced economies have faced 2.5-4x their avg inflation, India's inflation has been lower than avg. Govt. of India under PM @narendramodi deserves max credit for this wonderful performance. 2/n
Pleasing part of growth this yr is mfg growth at ~10%. So, India can indeed grow its mfg by addressing policy failures. As I've said often, India didn't reform its factor markets till 2014. Attempts by PM @narendramodi in this direction r yielding fruit. Let's continue this. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
As India pitches for ratings upgrade, reminding @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar using evidence from #EcoSurvey2021 why India's sovereign rating must be upgraded several notches🧵1/20
For details, see indiabudget.gov.in/budget2021-22/…
business-standard.com/economy/news/i… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. 5th largest eco has never been ranked as low as India is👇
Rating=Probability of Default =f(Ability2Repay + Intent2Repay)
GDP best reflects Ability2Repay=> ratings criteria used by @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar is conceptually FLAWED. 2/20 Image
2. Rating=Probability of Default =f(Ability2Repay + Intent2Repay)
As forex reserves r used to repay external (i.e. foreign currency) debt & short-term debt is repayable over 1-yr, short-term external debt as % of reserves capture Ability2Repay.
India is CLEAR +ve outlier👇3/20 Image
Read 20 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 27, 2023
🧵#9YearsOfPMModi #PhenomenalEconomicChanges
Jefferies, a Global Investment Bank, notes in its periodic report GREED&FEAR that “the dramatic changes wrought by Modi after 10yrs in power have been phenomenal.” 🧵using Jefferies' report 1/22
#9YearsOfPMModi #PositiveEconomicOutlier Combine Jefferies' observation w/ this fact: For the 1st time since independence, India is a +ve outlier on both macro-fundamentals and economic growth. That itself is testimony to #PhenomenalEconomicChanges in #9YearsOfPMModi. 2/22
#9YearsOfPMModi #InflatioTrendsDown
CPI Inflation and Core Inflation are trending down. The expectation is that inflation should run around 5% for the rest of this year which is below the upper band of the RBI’s target, namely 6%. 3/22 Image
Read 22 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 12, 2023
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #3 Image
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Read 22 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 12, 2023
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #2 Image
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Read 19 tweets

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