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Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian
@SubramanianKri
Exec Director @IMFNews, 17th Chief Economic Adviser (2018-21), Prof @ISBedu (on leave), @IITKanpur @IIM_Calcutta @UChicago. Views are personal + RT≠Endorsement.
6 subscribers
Jun 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Having covered why @AshokaMody focuses only on -ves w.r.t. India (), this thread shows how incorrect his conclusions are.
He uses (only!) 2 pieces of evidence. As is the fate of attempts to peddle incorrect narratives, both miss the wood for the trees! 1/n
@AshokaMody provides only 2 pieces of evidence: (1) stock of household debt is ~40% GDP in March 2023. (2) Personal loans have ↑ by 25-30%. As I show below, both are selectively sampled to peddle his fear-mongering narrative. 2/n
May 31 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
India's GDP growth at 8.2% for FY23-24. An analytical thread:
1. Post Covid, India's growth rate is 9.7%, 7.0% & 8.2%. Feel gratified as in Sep-21, when few believed it, I'd said in many interactions that I expect India to have 7%+ GDP growth (). 1/ntinyurl.com/56dpsh3b 2. This high growth is with moderate inflation of about 5%. At a time when advanced economies have faced 2.5-4x their avg inflation, India's inflation has been lower than avg. Govt. of India under PM @narendramodi deserves max credit for this wonderful performance. 2/n
Jun 16, 2023 • 20 tweets • 20 min read
As India pitches for ratings upgrade, reminding @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar using evidence from #EcoSurvey2021 why India's sovereign rating must be upgraded several notches🧵1/20
For details, see indiabudget.gov.in/budget2021-22/…
business-standard.com/economy/news/i… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1. 5th largest eco has never been ranked as low as India is👇
Rating=Probability of Default =f(Ability2Repay + Intent2Repay)
GDP best reflects Ability2Repay=> ratings criteria used by @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar is conceptually FLAWED. 2/20 Image
May 27, 2023 • 22 tweets • 12 min read
🧵#9YearsOfPMModi #PhenomenalEconomicChanges
Jefferies, a Global Investment Bank, notes in its periodic report GREED&FEAR that “the dramatic changes wrought by Modi after 10yrs in power have been phenomenal.” 🧵using Jefferies' report 1/22 #9YearsOfPMModi #PositiveEconomicOutlier Combine Jefferies' observation w/ this fact: For the 1st time since independence, India is a +ve outlier on both macro-fundamentals and economic growth. That itself is testimony to #PhenomenalEconomicChanges in #9YearsOfPMModi. 2/22
May 12, 2023 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #3 Image Image
May 12, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #2 Image Image
May 12, 2023 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #1 Image Image
May 1, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
🧵employing rigorous analysis to show "Why CMIE's Employment (& other Survey) Data is unreliable" from a working paper of mine (Singh & Subramanian, 2023) that will be released in a few days. Sharing pages from the relevant subsection:
Page 1: Image Page 2: Image
Apr 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🧵As I have consistently said before, my son was in Class 11 in 2021 & I wanted to be there for him in his crucial 2 yrs (11&12) the way my Appa was there for me at a similar stage in life. One of my biggest strengths is clarity of thought, esp w/ priorities in life. 1/5 Clarity of thought comes for me from minimising regret. If my son were to not do well academically bcos I was not there for him when he needed me (& I cudn’t hv handling the CEA responsibility which is 24x7), I would have regretted that my entire life. Can’t afford that. 2/5
Apr 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🧵I’d the privilege to see 1st hand soo many difficult decisions Hon’ble PM @narendramodi took during Covid under TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. India is lucky that he led us brilliantly during the once-in-a-century pandemic. 1/5 Of course those who lost loved ones during the Delta wave will feel strong emotions & I respect that. But, we’ve to concede we are a population of 1.4 billion with a poor health infrastructure bcos of decades of neglect. And it takes time to fix such neglect. 2/5
Mar 19, 2023 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
.@PChidambaram_IN This🧵uses your OWN Oped articles to expose your HYPOCRISY.
@INCIndia take note of your 4-time FM's hypocrisy using his OWN Oped articles.
Start with his statement 👇& read how often he contradicts them in his OWN oped articles. 1/n
For reference, he says 👇
"In UPA years, b/w 2009-11, inflation was indeed high. And the reason is obvious. It was bcos Mr. Mukherjee following other FMs believed in stimulus packages. We spent money we didn't have & so inflation went out of control." 2/n
Mar 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
🧵on why Silicon Valley Bank fiasco could be the Canary in the Coal Mine (despite the program that the Fed brought out). See graphic👇explaining the phenomenon. The nature of deposits (specifically startups putting their deposits in SVB) is not as material to the phenomenon. /1 Image Any bank that has gotten much more deposits than it could lend, & so invested heavily in securities faces unrealized losses on its securities portfolio & is therefore v vulnerable.
Question then: What about the program that the Fed came up with /2 Image
Mar 12, 2023 • 7 tweets • 7 min read
Why @RahulGandhi is #PosterChildOfEntitlement? 🧵
Every prominent politician except @RahulGandhi - @narendramodi @ArvindKejriwal @myogiadityanath @MamataOfficial KCR (@TelanganaCMO) @NitishKumar @himantabiswa @Dev_Fadnavis @mieknathshinde - has come up on their political merit /1 Every prominent politician mentioned in /1 except @RahulGandhi had to work their way up. One may agree or disagree with their politics; one may like or dislike them. But it’s undeniable that they all - except @RahulGandhi - had to gain acceptability thru their political merit. /2
Mar 11, 2023 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
🧵Why 2004-14 is India's LOST DECADE. #1 See video👇 where Dr. @APanagariya questions Dr. Montek Ahluwalia "What has your govt done to spur growth in the last 10 yrs?" and asks a list of ONLY 5 measures. No response from Montek apart from a v weak point /1 #1 contd. : In the video, Montek says 10-yr growth can't be bcos of measures over 20-yrs! Such a weak defence... Truth is the growth was bcos of favourable global eco (=high tide lifting all boats) & reform measures by ABY govt /2
Feb 4, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Seeing trains,🧵on Appa whom I owe my ALL... he worked w/ Indian Railways. My best childhood memories r w/ trains. Holidays meant train travel. Crucially, Appa cudn't tell us to study😀Train travel & not being told to study by Appa correlated. Maybe, that's why I love trains. 1/n Must relate some (now, not then) fond memories of the "terror" that Appa was w/ studies & his leniency with everything else. Neither me nor my brother Prof. K Vaidyanathan (2 yrs my younger) wud've achieved what we did but for that "terror" that he was on our studies. 2/n
Feb 3, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Om Namah Shivaya! 🧵describing The Divine Experience of a devotee at #KailashMansarovar. See video👇. My brother & co-author Prof. K Vaidyanathan has himself gone & shared similar experience. Humble🙏to All to respect sacredness of this experience. 1/13 Following is translation into English of devotee's own words in Tamil:
What I’m showing in this video may be hard to believe for a lot of people. But, this is an actual incident – very miraculous – that happened during our visit to low to Kailash Mansarovar. I am going to 2/13
Sep 27, 2022 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
(1/16) 🧵on MUDRA loans. As a founding board member of Bandhan Bank till 2018, I've seen +ve impact of loans even of ₹25K on the poor. I’m quite surprised by @PChidambaram_IN questioning impact of loans of ₹3.73lakhs.🧵shows clearly +ve impact of MUDRA. (1a/16) MUDRA Growth
The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY), completed 7 years of its operations, extending a cumulative amount of 18.83 lakh crore to 34.93 crore loan accounts, primarily benefitting the borrowers of weaker sections of the society.
Sep 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A🧵on ₹ depreciation. See chart below. where ALL currencies have depreciated more year-to-date against the USD than ₹. While ₹ has depreciated 8% year-to-date, $ index has appreciated 18.8% over the same period. 1/n Two key questions arise: 1) Why is $ appreciating? 2) How should we see ₹ performance vis-à-vis other currencies? 2/n
Sep 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Be careful interpreting predictions of economists like Nouriel Roubini, who always makes doomsday predictions. If one predicts doomsday 10 times & once it fructifies, 9 incorrect predictions never gather attention. Confirmation bias + attention bias! 1/5
ndtv.com/world-news/he-… Quite possible that he or some entity connected to him takes bearish positions after such doomsday predictions. Even if 9 are wrong, he doesn't lose as much as he makes when the 1 doomsday prediction hits the jackpot. 2/5
Sep 13, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Imp🧵using high-quality research by Prof. Babones shows international rankings of India's democracy r BIASED. He is author of "Methods for Quantitative Macro-Comparative Research", std. source for statistical analysis of international comparisons. So, he is a QUALIFIED EXPERT 1/n Dear scholars & experts pathologically criticizing India, Prof. Babones's research focuses on political sociology of authoritarianism. I'm sharing relevant parts from his timely article "Indian Democracy at 75: Who Are the Barbarians at the Gate?" quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/20… 2/n
Sep 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Ur comment prompted me to write a 5-page note, which is on LinkedIn & images here. India's Covid policy response was based on a deep analysis of policy response to GFC & Asian Fin Crisis. The note makes clear why the GFC response was myopic & flawed. linkedin.com/posts/prof-k-v… 1/5 2/5