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Rich Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
May 13 • 7 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Astonishing how few pollsters and pundits are explaining to people the significance of a candidate being at or above 50%.

Yes, even this "early in the process".

We spent a lot of time on it on the show today, i.e. Historical & Polling Stats 101.

Omission is misleading people.
Yes, even this early in the process, at this point:

No candidate has lost the nomination with 60+ endorsements from NTL and Gov elected offices, in the modern era.

No candidate has lost the nomination polling at or above 50%, in the modern era. peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3986033/w…
For the lazy who reply to tweets without having the intellect or attention span to read the article outlining an argument in great detail, let's walk you through what you missed.

1. This is not 2016. The NeverTrump/Anti-Trump vote has never been a "majority". Meaning, the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2. DeSantis polling at around 20% at this point would historically give him the same (1/5) chance of winning the nomination. However, Trump's polling lead is not historically normal, even for a frontrunner, and yes, even "this early".

So, what, or who, is driving that lead and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The Republican primary electorate is NOT a general election electorate. Working class voters will play deciding roles in several key states (especially earlier states).

In our latest poll, Trump now enjoys his largest lead yet among non-college working class, an astonishing 54… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
What about educated voters?

The ONLY path to defeating Trump requires dominating among college educated primary voters, while also benefitting from a tightening among non-college voters.

Yet Trump's support among college educated REPs has steadily improved since January 2023.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
I specifically did NOT bring up Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton because they were both included in the original article and I wanted to watch people cite them because they were too lazy to read it.

Neither examples are comparable to Trump's current lead. Again, read the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Rich Baris
Apr 13
Ron DeSantis, who would have lost in 2018 if not for the president, had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Vote for whom you want, folks. Seriously. But I absolutely can’t tolerate bullshit.

Trump’s policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, coupled with his outreach, bonus… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The “Old Southern White Democrat” registration shift from DEM to REP was over before Barack Obama left office.

State-to-state migration, specifically from NE USA and California, sent Florida a ton of REP voters who settled in the Tampa Area, and South.

During his… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Those of you who have watched Inside The Numbers since before 2020 know full well what I am talking about and know this is a bullshit talking point.

Lastly, gubernatorial elections are the least predictive indicator for future presidential performance.

Everyone serious knows… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 28
Exactly right. This is a mental health issue and it's been known for decades how media play a contagion role. It used to be referred to as the "Columbine Effect". Sadly, the media-inspired events to follow are almost always more deadly.

They hate the Second Amendment and simply… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This might come as a surprise now, but @MotherJones did fabulous work covering the Columbine Effect, specifically @markfollman and @kbeccaandrews.

Absolutely fantastic work.
motherjones.com/politics/2015/…
Follman also has done great work on "How the Media Inspires Mass Shooters".

But unfortunately, as an industry, media care more about the anti-Second Amendment agenda than their own role in inspiring the mentally unstable to commit these acts. motherjones.com/politics/2015/…
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 28
Here's the @nypost doing an expose on how badly we polled in 2020. In the next thread, I'll include the link for another review via The Epoch Times re: 2016, who hired us to give them a Biden +4 even though we're garbage. nypost.com/article/the-re…
And here it is. It hurts to share this review of our 2016 record. Honestly, I cannot believe they hired us to do their national polling, which was final Biden +4, for 2020.

It was a miracle.
theepochtimes.com/young-polling-…
Wait, folks, wait... It's not fair to leave out that we also had a final poll for the Georgia runoff. Consider, it was December 11, 2020, so sorry, but it was the best we could do.

Here's what we got...

Ossoff: +2
Warnock: +5
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 6 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 21
Two Myths of Empire for Senator Cornyn in a single day!

@MZHemingway is right. You really need to read a few books. For starters, Chamberlain caved when Germany had the potential to make a run at hegemony.

Russia has no such advantage in either latent or military power.
Here is the first Myth of Empire Cornyn invoked earlier today. It's of course the same myth used to muster support for the Iraq Invasion, arguably the biggest foreign policy blunder in U.S. history.

We got Domino Theory and Offensive Advantage in one day!… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
For those who aren't familiar with Snyder and have no idea what the Hell I'm talking about, he identifies recurrent "myths of empire" that lead to overextension, and ultimately, demise.

By the way, myth-believing societies, which we are in the U.S., are dangerous and reckless.
Read 5 tweets
Rich Baris
Jan 31
There were acts of political violence before and after each of the instances @RepMattGaetz cited re: Democrats challenges to Trump and Bush in Congress after elections.

Violence in 2016 was widespread and in just about every major U.S. city.

Here's the real difference...
Real difference is that the ruling class finds it completely acceptable when political violence hurts and destroys the property of the non-ruling class.

They think D.C. belongs to them, not to the sovereign voter, and view it as a personal attack.

That's not acceptable to them.
They do not view the House as the "People's House", same goes for the upper chamber.

If either chamber were sacred to them, they would've cared when nutcase protestors pinned Jeff Flake in an elevator, etc.

They see it as their territor/property and frankly they value it more.
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Jan 22
Blind Lemon Jefferson.

As my grandfather used to tell me when I asked him what someone or something was...

Look it up...

You won't be disappointed.
Then... T-Bone...

He'll take Blind Lemon to another level...
Add the voice of Lightning Hopkins and eventually you'll get the style of this highly [raised player of Texas Blues?
Read 4 tweets

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