#Belarus One of the most odious propagandists, Aliaksandr Shpakouski, wrote that "in the coming years the era of Lukashenka will end", so the continuity of power must be ensured.
What a curious change of rhetoric. The end of Lukashenka's rule is becoming a mainstream topic.
In an outburst of "honesty", Shpakouski also wrote that the "war in Ukraine is not going well for our Russian allies". His goal is to provoke fear by saying that the conflict will affect the territory of Belarus if Russia loses. Yet nobody wants to be on the side of losers.
Finally, he wrote that Lukashenka got a cold. Oddly, he immediately added that a "man is mortal", and this mortality can be sudden "but not this time". Nevertheless, the "task is to be able to defend our country even without the president."
Such a courageous piece of writing.
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#Belarus The current Consitution offers these two scenarios:
First, if Lukashenka suddenly dies, the chairperson of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kachanava, will perform his duties until the new elections. The Council of the Republic is the upper house of the parliament.
Secondly, if Lukashenka is killed, a state of emergency or martial law will be declared, while state institutions and officials will follow the decisions of the Security Council. At the same time, the same Kachanava will preside over the meetings of the Security Council.
Both scenarios can create a crisis. The chairperson of the Council of the Republic has no real power to influence the government and the lower house of the parliament. She became the "second" person due to the recent changes in the Constitution. Lukashenka might trust her.
#Belarus On May 5, Lukashenka already had problems with his health. Listen to his voice when he addressed the room. There was no bandage on his hand, so we can assume that it appeared later, as it was seen on May 9 in Moscow. Perhaps his health got worse by then.
Later on May 5, prime minister Raman Halouchanka gave a speech at the ceremony dedicated to Victory Day at the Palace of the Republic. On May 9, Lukashenka travelled to Moscow but felt too weak to walk with other rulers and had to leave immediately after the parade.
If he had a cold or a virus, how would the usually very cautious Putin shake hands with Lukashenka, who felt unwell? Showing that he has so many allies was more critical for Putin than potentially getting an infection from Lukashenka? What about other leaders in Moscow?
I'm grateful to @ZelenskyyUa for mentioning the support for #Ukraine among Belarusians & that they keep fighting against the regime. I want to address one thing: the Ukrainian President said there were no victims. Not true. Security forces shot peaceful protesters on the streets.
Aliaksandr Taraikouski was shot dead on August 10, 2020. I was not far away from Pushkin Square. All of us heard the shooting. What a cynical & deliberate murder of a man who wanted to show the police that he was unarmed & went out to protest against the rigged election.
On August 11, 2020, Hienadz Shutau was shot in Brest. He ended up in a coma and died later.
On August 9, Aliaksandr Vikhor was detained in Homiel. He was beaten at a police station and died soon afterwards. The investigator said he got overdosed even though his blood was clean.
This is sickening but can't be ignored. I'm sharing excerpts from the @UNHumanRights report on violence in #Belarus during mass protests in 2020:
OHCHR documented 6 cases of rape committed in police vehicles and in police stations throughout Minsk against four men and two boys.
In one case, a man was raped in the Okrestino detention centre /.../. Using a baton, officers ruptured the victim’s rectum, causing heavy bleeding, and were laughing at him instead of providing first aid, covering his mouth as he was screaming from the excruciating pain.
In another case, security officials, while beating a 16-year-old boy /.../ inserted a stun gun into his mouth and later in a police station a police baton into his mouth, badly injuring the victim, resulting in his being sent for intensive care hospitalization.
#Belarus The sudden visit of the Russian MoD Sergei Shoigu caused another round of threads about Russia's immense pressure on Lukashenka who refuses to obey. I’ll be boring and stick to facts because there is little evidence of such pressure. Instead, we see an opposite trend ⬇️
First, Putin and Lukashenka hold regular & quite friendly meetings. They are very important for Lukashenka to show his elites that he has Putin’s support. Putin doesn’t seem to refuse a chance to meet.
Second, Russia supports Belarus financially & by providing various benefits.
Recently, the Russian Duma approved the bill law allowing Belarus to postpone debt payments for $1.4 billion. Russia also issued a new $1.74 billion loan. Belarus has access to the Russian market, infrastructure and especially ports, which is crucial because of Western sanctions.
#Belarus When I read comments that Belarusians gave up and are doing nothing, I want to share the facts and data. In November alone, at least 354 people were arrested for political reasons. It gives us 11 people every day arrested for their opposition to the regime and the war
These figures come from @viasna96 human rights defenders. Just a reminder: their director Ales Bialatski is in jail.
The regime's list of "extremists" now includes 2117 people. Among them are journalists, bloggers, priests, pensioners and many others. Every month, it grows.
Political prisoner and brilliant lawyer Maksim Znak was sent to a cell-type facility, which is another form of pressure and isolation. Before that, he was sent to punishment cells at least 3 times. Maria Kalesnikava recently ended up in an intensive care after a punishment cell.