Lewis Goodall Profile picture
May 14 5 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Turkish media suggesting neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu have likely reached 50%. So we’re looking at a run off. #Turkey2023
Speaks to the strength of Erdogan core vote that despite rampant inflation, deep economic problems (admittedly after many years of growth) and poor earthquake response that, he is still so competitive.
That said Erdogan has not faced a run off before.

Good news for him on the parliamentary front though. With 89.5% of votes counted, Erdogan's alliance looks set for a majority with 323 seats in the 600-seat Turkish parliament. Better than polls suggested for his bloc.
Opposition is alleging irregularities and suggesting Erdogan’s campaign is slowing the system by objecting to ballot boxes repeatedly and without justification.
Turkish lira is weakening against the dollar and euro on the markets.

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More from @lewis_goodall

May 15
Home Secretary Suella Braverman addressing the National Conservatism Conference in central London

Interrupted by two protesters who are escorted out

“Anyone else” she says

“It’s audition day for the Shadow Cabinet.”
It was a good line but one with more meaning than she intended. So much of what she’s doing right now, so much of these conferences, are with half an eye on the heart and soul of an opposition Conservative Party.
Braverman: “I understand the goal of conservatism is to protect fundamental rights…the left sees the purpose of politics to eradicate the existence of inequality even if this is at the expense of individual liberty and flourishing.”
Read 24 tweets
May 15
Remarkable admission from Jacob Rees Mogg that the govt was trying to “gerrymander” when it introduced voter ID.

Also worth saying he was a minister when the proposal was going through Parliament. Image
The govt will doubtless deny this- though as has been obvious throughout, put charitably, they would hardly have been unaware of potential party advantage.
Rees Mogg suggests Labour’s proposals on extending franchise to under 18s and EU citizens is also “gerrymandering”. However, we need to scrutinise such claims. Can extensions of the franchise be considered gerrymandering in the same way as any restrictions to it?
Read 9 tweets
May 13
NEW: Weekend @TheNewsAgents

Today eyes of Europe on Liverpool for #Eurovision2023 

But it’s only there because the war still rages. So we ask, 443 days in, as 🇺🇦 counter-offensive begins, what is the state of play? Is this a frozen war, once more? podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
With @shashj @kiraincongress @scottygb

PLUS Latest in our extended political interviews, this time with @jessphillips

And yes, forget the Liverpool chat, we talked a lot about England’s true greatest city Image
Read 5 tweets
May 5
Where are we?

Firstly MOST RESULTS ARE NOT IN.

Too early to draw firm conclusions.

But Conservatives look set for a v bad night.

Labour gain Plymouth. Gain Stoke. Gain Medway.

Lib Dems gain Windsor & Maidenhead.

Tories lose control Brentwood, Tamworth, NW Leic
Plymouth, Stoke and Medway all comprise key targets for Labour at the next election. Medway in particular is a council the party has never controlled. They're pleased too about Middlesbrough mayor.

Lib Dems are expecting further substantial gains in the south of England.
Essentially the results so far are about as bad as expected for the Conservatives (and expectations were bad). Labour results are good but how good we'll need to wait for more results for the full picture. They're confirming what we already knew- govt is facing a pincer movement.
Read 6 tweets
May 4
Health warning- we get plenty of results tonight but local elections are basically a two day cycle now and the “narrative” as of 6am on Friday morning can be quite different to 6pm on Friday evening. No-one really knows anything proper yet and won’t for some time.
A few councils can achieve outsize importance just because they report early. They’re not necessarily (or even probably) representative.
Last year for example overnight the Conservative losses weren’t so bad. Narrative set in. End of evening was much worse picture. But the “narrative” had already been largely set.
Read 4 tweets
May 4
LOCAL ELECTIONS DAY (for some) 🗳️

A) Remember to vote

B) Remember to take your ID to vote

C) And if you or someone you know has difficulty voting because of (B) let me know (DMs open)
Most wonderful day of the year of course
Also want to hear from those of you on the doorstep for GOTV. How is it looking for your party where you are…
Read 7 tweets

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