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Yardeni Research Profile picture
@yardeni
May 15 • 6 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
📊📅 Get ready for a data-packed week ahead!

In this thread we're breaking down the key coincident and leading economic indicators to watch out for this week.

Stay tuned for insights into May's economic activity.

#EconomicIndicators #DataAnalysis
The week ahead is jampacked with coincident and leading economic indicators.

Keep an eye on May 12 mortgage applications (Wed) and May 13 jobless claims (Thu). They provide up-to-the-minute insights and may impact April's housing starts and existing home sales. Image
On a four-week moving average basis, jobless claims have recently risen to 242,000. This could be a significant signal of a slowing labor market, despite high job openings.
Also, watch out for the regional business surveys compiled by the FRB-NY (Mon) and FRB-Philly (Thu).

They reflect the goods recession as consumer preferences shifted to services.

We expect signs of bottoming in these surveys and the three others released later this month.
April retail sales and April's composite cyclical indexes are also important this week.

Our full analysis is available for our premium QuickTakes members online below

yardeniquicktakes.com/the-economic-w…
Stay tuned for updates throughout the week as the data becomes available!

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More from @yardeni

Yardeni Research Profile picture
May 16
📉 New York's regional business survey shows lots of weakness...

Does this confirm that the economy is falling into a recession, as many economists have been predicting? 🧵⬇️
Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

It was released today: newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/m… Image
Brief summary (1/2):

- The headline general business conditions index dropped 43.0 points to -31.8
- New orders and shipments plunged
- Delivery times shortened somewhat, and inventories contracted
- Employment and hours worked edged lower for a fourth consecutive month
Read 5 tweets
Yardeni Research Profile picture
May 15
The MegaCap-8 are back in their saddles, leading the stock market higher again Image
They've regained much of the market cap share they lost during last year's bear market, especially in recent weeks

They currently account for 24.7% of the S&P 500 index and 46.5% of the S&P 500 Growth index
As a result, Growth has outperformed Value, LargeCaps has outperformed SMidCaps, and Stay Home has rebounded relative to Go Global
Read 4 tweets
Yardeni Research Profile picture
May 9
Do you know the bears' two favorite charts?

Bearish forecasters tend to focus on two charts to support a pessimistic outlook:

1. The S&P 500 versus Fed securities
2. M2 growth

It's easy to draw negative conclusions at first glance, but that's not how we see it 🧵
The S&P 500 versus the securities held by the Fed accounts for most of the Fed’s balance sheet

They contend the bull market from 2009 through 2021 was driven by the Fed’s various QE programs

The market peaked Jan 22 as investors started to anticipate QT
The Fed remains on its QT course, which suggests to these bears that the rally since October is within a bear market, but we think that the stock market’s trend is driven mostly by the trend in earnings Image
Read 7 tweets
Yardeni Research Profile picture
May 8
MARKET CALL 📢: Tug of War

The bulls and the bears continue their tug of war with the S&P 500 fluctuating around 4000 since last summer

Here's our latest analysis on what's next for the US stock market 🧵⬇️
The index rebounded off its 50-dma on Friday

The 200-dma has been crawling higher since the start of this year Image
In mid-March, when the banking crisis started, the breadth of the market narrowed as evidenced by the drop in the ratio of the S&P 500 equal-weighted to market-cap-weighted indexes Image
Read 5 tweets
Yardeni Research Profile picture
May 8
We’re looking at an important economic week ahead

The Fed will release the Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey (SLOOS) and we’ll get important April inflation stats along with the NFIB survey and federal budget deficit

What outlook can we expect from these indicators? 🧵⬇️
On Monday, the Fed will release the latest Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey (SLOOS)

It is likely to show a further sharp tightening in lending standards, especially for commercial real estate loans Image
It's also a big week ahead for April's inflation stats on inflationary expectations (Mon), the CPI (Wed), and the PPI (Thu)

The latter two should show that inflation continues to moderate on a y/y basis Image
Read 7 tweets
Yardeni Research Profile picture
Apr 27
📈📊 Real GDP during Q1 only rose 1.1% (saar), but don’t let that number fool you!

Let’s break down why economic growth wasn’t as weak as it seems and how inventories played a role in shaping the GDP 🧵
In Q1, the real GDP rose only 1.1% (saar), but there's more to the story. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers shifted from buying goods to services.

Goods producers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting orders and lowering prices, reducing inventories.
Excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.4% during Q1, led by a solid 3.7% increase in real consumer spending.

This helped reduce inventories, and the chart shows the increase in real consumer spending. Image
Read 8 tweets

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