1/4 🧵 The S&P 500's surge to a record high, up 4% YTD, is largely driven by the powerhouse MegaCap-8, soaring 7.6% to outshine the rest. But peel back this layer, and the S&P's gain without them would stand at just 2.5%. A tale of two markets? 2/4 🚀 Diving deeper, the MegaCap-8 now command an astonishing 28.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap, influencing not just overall performance but setting benchmarks in earnings and revenue growth too.

What comes after a rolling recession? Possibly a rolling expansion.

Yesterday's housing starts report for May suggests a strong recovery. Housing starts jumped 21.6% to 1.63 million units last month, the largest gain since October 2016. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose above the midpoint mark of 50 in June for the first time since July 2022. A shortage of existing homes is boosting demand for new ones.

The index has rebounded by 77% since December.

📉 New York's regional business survey shows lots of weakness...

Does this confirm that the economy is falling into a recession, as many economists have been predicting? 🧵⬇️ Business activity fell sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

It was released today: newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/m…

The MegaCap-8 are back in their saddles, leading the stock market higher again They've regained much of the market cap share they lost during last year's bear market, especially in recent weeks

They currently account for 24.7% of the S&P 500 index and 46.5% of the S&P 500 Growth index

📊📅 Get ready for a data-packed week ahead!

In this thread we're breaking down the key coincident and leading economic indicators to watch out for this week.

Stay tuned for insights into May's economic activity.

#EconomicIndicators #DataAnalysis The week ahead is jampacked with coincident and leading economic indicators.

Keep an eye on May 12 mortgage applications (Wed) and May 13 jobless claims (Thu). They provide up-to-the-minute insights and may impact April's housing starts and existing home sales.

Do you know the bears' two favorite charts?

Bearish forecasters tend to focus on two charts to support a pessimistic outlook:

1. The S&P 500 versus Fed securities
2. M2 growth

It's easy to draw negative conclusions at first glance, but that's not how we see it 🧵 The S&P 500 versus the securities held by the Fed accounts for most of the Fed’s balance sheet

They contend the bull market from 2009 through 2021 was driven by the Fed’s various QE programs

The market peaked Jan 22 as investors started to anticipate QT

MARKET CALL 📢: Tug of War

The bulls and the bears continue their tug of war with the S&P 500 fluctuating around 4000 since last summer

Here's our latest analysis on what's next for the US stock market 🧵⬇️ The index rebounded off its 50-dma on Friday

The 200-dma has been crawling higher since the start of this year

We’re looking at an important economic week ahead

The Fed will release the Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey (SLOOS) and we’ll get important April inflation stats along with the NFIB survey and federal budget deficit

What outlook can we expect from these indicators? 🧵⬇️ On Monday, the Fed will release the latest Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey (SLOOS)

It is likely to show a further sharp tightening in lending standards, especially for commercial real estate loans

📈📊 Real GDP during Q1 only rose 1.1% (saar), but don’t let that number fool you!

Let’s break down why economic growth wasn’t as weak as it seems and how inventories played a role in shaping the GDP 🧵 In Q1, the real GDP rose only 1.1% (saar), but there's more to the story. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers shifted from buying goods to services.

Goods producers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting orders and lowering prices, reducing inventories.