Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

I have not written an update for a long time, so here is an update. This update is not for any given day but for the general news and developments over the past few weeks as of 2023-05-14, May 14th. (1/38)

View the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

There has been limited movement around Kupyansk. Ukrainian artillery has done an excellent job suppressing Russian artillery, as a result limiting their capabilities offensively. Russia has brought in significant electronic warfare assets to counter Ukrainian artillery. (2/38)

On May 14th, Russia claimed to have captured Masyutivka (1). I have not seen any evidence to support this claim, but even if it is true, it doesn’t matter much because they, by their admission, have not captured the Ukrainian strongholds on the outskirts of the settlement. (3/38)

A week ago, Russia published drone footage of shelling Ukrainian positions near Vilshana, which indicated a Ukrainian advance in the area (2). This advance is opportunistic due to Ukrainian artillery success. Russia has been trying to dislodge Ukraine from here (3). (4/38)

South of Kupyansk, Russia has been attempting to attack Novoselivske (4). However, over the past 6-7 months, Russia has suffered significant casualties from Ukrainian artillery in Novoselivske, forcing them to withdraw from positions gradually. (5/38)

Russia is also attacking Stelmakhivka (5), and they have been suffering significant casualties here for the same reasons as Novoselivske. Ukraine expected a strong Russian offensive in this area and prepared for it. That attack never came, but the defenses have seen use. (6/38)

Russians have been on the attack around Kreminna, attacking Yampolivka (6), Torske (7), and the Serebranka Forestry (8). They have had very little success in any of these assaults. On the other hand, the fighting in the forest has been relatively intense. (7/38)

There is an industrial area south of Bilohorivka. Ukraine is slowly advancing into this industrial area, and in the recent past, they established, at least temporarily, some control over part, but not all, of this area (9). (8/38)

However, Russia attacked this industrial area repeatedly, trying to push Ukrainian forces out and seize control for themselves (10). These attacks have failed, and I believe this industrial area is currently a gray zone. (9/38)

Northest of Verkhnokamyanske Ukraine and Russia have been trading attacks (11,12) around “Cyclops.” The 54th brigade posted videos depicting some of the fighting in this area. (10/38)

Russian forces have been attempting to capture Spirne for months (13). However, in recent weeks they have managed to push Ukrainian troops out of an industrial area east of Spirne. This industrial area consisted of bunkers and various underground facilities. (11/38)

Russia took significant casualties moving into this location, and they have taken many casualties trying to push further west from this position. They have lost BTRs, BMPs, and T-90M, among other things. (12/38)

More recently, over the past few days, there have been reports of Russians abandoning positions around Spirne due to heavy losses. (13/38)

Near Bilohorivka (a different one), Ukrainian forces recently successfully advanced, capturing a significant Russian position in the area (14). However, Russia successfully recaptured this position two days ago (15). (14/38)

Ukrainian forces have gone on a localized counteroffensive north of Bakhmut. First, Ukrainians attacked north from Bodanivka (16) and Khromove (17). These attacks yielded significant results, moving about 2km north toward Berkhivka and Yahidne. (15/38)

Next, they attacked toward Dubovo-Vasylivka (18). Here they moved 3 or 4 hundred meters. Next, Russia attacked Orikhovo-Vasylivkla (19) and tried to recapture lost positions near Hryhorivka (20), but both failed. (16/38)

After that, Russians counterattacked near Berkhivka (21) and Yahidne (22) and may have stabilized the line in these areas. Finally, Ukraine advanced south from Minkivka, clearing a large forest strip (23). (17/38)

There is extremely heavy fighting in Bakhmut; the city is hell. There is fighting in the northern part of Bakhmut (24), where Russia is progressing slowly but steadily. (18/38)

Russia made significant progress on May 14th in the middle of the Ukrainian line (25,26), and there is heavy ongoing fighting in the southern part of the Ukrainian line (27,28). (19/38)

While Russia is making progress in Bakhmut, especially considering the significant progress on May 14th, the Ukrainian successes on the northern and southern flanks of the city raise questions about Russia’s ability to capture and secure Bakhmut in the long run. (21/38)

Ukraine performed a significant counterattack south of Bakhmut. First, they broke through the Russian line to the west of the canal (29), which forced the Russians to partially withdraw to the eastern side of the canal. (21/38)

Next, Ukraine attacked the forest strip south of Ivanivske (30) and the Russian positions south of Ivanivske (31). Next, Ukraine forced the remaining Russian forces to withdraw across the canal (32). (22/38)

Then Ukraine squeezed the Russian troops out of the rest of the forest strip south of Ivanivske (33). As a result, Russian forces retreat to a line of defense west of Klishchiivka (34), where presumably, they will attempt to maintain control of the hill over the town. (23/38)

If Ukraine can push Russia off of this hill, it would open up possibilities of further advances east, including potentially cutting off the southern approaches into Bakhmut. (24/38)

Near Kurdyumivka, Ukraine has managed to push all Russian forces east of the canal (35). Ukraine may have also launched small attacks toward Mayorsk (36). (25/38)

North of Avdiivka, several weeks ago, Russia took positions west of Novobakhmutivka (37), and they are pushing toward Novokalynove (38). However, there has been little movement here since. (26/38)

Around Avdiivka itself, Russian forces recently fully captured Kamyanka (39). The town was contested for a long while before this. South of Kamyanka near Kruta Balka, there has been some back-and-forth movement, but at the moment, it is between the two extremes. (27/38)

Southwest of Avdiivka, Russia is attempting, and I want to stress how suicidal and stupid this is, to advance north from Opytne toward Avdiivka (40). They’ve had no success. Avdiivka has been getting hit pretty regularly with large bombs dropped by planes. (28/38)

West of Avdiivka, in the recent past, Russia has tried to move north (41) and west (42) from Vodyane and try to capture Pervomaiske (43). They have failed. Likewise, Ukraine has tried to attack Vodyane from the north (44) and west (45), and these actions have also failed. (29/38)

Russians are still attacking in and around Marinka (46). Nothing much has changed. The city is gone, although the blooming flowers planted by the former inhabitants make it look slightly less like a hellscape. Nature always wins. (30/38)

South of Marinka several weeks ago, Ukraine pushed Russian forces away from Pobjeda and out of several fortified positions south of Marinka (47). Additionally, Russian forces occasionally attack Novomykhailivka without any success (48). (31/38)

Down near Vuhledar, Ukraine has been slowly advancing through the gray area toward Pavlivvka (49), Novomaiorske (50), and Novodonetske (51). I’ve also gone through and marked all the areas Ukraine and Russia have been shelling in this area, which is quite a few areas. (32/38)

Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has moved south from Velyka Novosilka (52) and south from Novosilka (53). As a result, they are claiming control of the gray area. (33/38)

Near Hulyaipole, Ukraine has advanced south over the past few weeks toward Marfopil (54) and Dorozhnyanka (55). Unfortunately, Hulyaipole has been getting heavily bombed by Russian aviation. (34/38)

Near Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces have advanced south over the past few weeks from Novodanylivka (56) and Novoandriivka (57). Again, Ukraine is claiming the gray area. Orikhiv is also getting heavily shelled by Russian aviation. (35/38)

Ukraine has been shelling the “Vasylivka District” of Zaporizhzhia. Depicted is not one day’s worth of shelling, mind you, but these are all locations Ukraine has been regularly shelling over the past week. (36/38)

Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has attacked and taken control over several islands in the Dnipro River (58,59). Russia has been trying to repel these actions with artillery fire and bombs dropped by aviation, but they have not been successful. (37/38)

Ukraine has been claiming more and more land in this area. I have marked the notable shelling in this area over the past four days. (38/38)