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Steve Horn Profile picture
@SteveAHorn
May 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Okay, so, I got it wrong. 😬 Here’s a mathematical explainer. I calculated a baseline of 7974 US deaths/day. That’s from a data source I found online. Multiple by .04, the low end of “moderate,” and you get 318.96. Multiple by 7 and that’s 2232 deaths a week.
The high end you replace it w/ a .059 and the number is 470 using the same formula. Next, to get to the orange level, replace the .059 in the formula with .08 and you get 4465 deaths per week or 637 deaths per day per US capita in any given state that’s color graded at the upper
bound of “moderate.” I apologize for the error here! Never do math when both stretching and tired after running! With these new metrics in mind, curious to hear what people think. Obviously, it’s nowhere near as bad as I first parlayed.
And I think besides messing up some #s along the way, I also mixed up days for weeks along the way maybe in crunching the numbers. Again, sorry for the mistake! Will go slower and be more careful next time. Curious for others’ takes on these revised numbers!
Lastly, using CDC’s deaths per day data, a “moderate” number of deaths per week is state equivalent of 2655-3917, or 138,101 to 203,699 per year rate. For context, that would continue to make COVID one of the top 3 or 4 causes of death in the US cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/d… Image

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More from @SteveAHorn

Steve Horn Profile picture
May 15
We need to start repeating the message plain and clear: you’re only an infection away from disability and/or long-term serous health consequences from this disease. We can’t just make this a thing about “the vulnerable” because it otherizes and we are ultimately all vulnerable.
It’s also been, very sorry to say, a completely ineffective message. It makes the “strong and able-bodied” types feel bulletproof. There’s a reason universal message like “Smoking Kills” resonated for a whole generation of people & created breakthroughs in public health policy.
That said, we should certainly be talking about how it disproportionately impacts vulnerable populations. But it’s obviously not resonating as a message on its own in a deeply and morally abhorrent ableist society. Otherwise how could we possibly be where we are at this stage?
Read 6 tweets
Steve Horn Profile picture
May 15
Just did the math. For the new CDC map to even get to the yellow color on the map for deaths per day, 2,982 per US capita would have to be dying per day, 1 less than died on 9/11 not including 19 hijackers. 1.08M per year equivalent. That’s how to get to “moderate” on the map.
To get to “moderate” on the map you need nearly the official weekly per capita equivalent of deaths for the whole ongoing pandemic to take place. So, yeah, this is nothing less than science denial of the most obscene denial out of the Biden Administration. It’s an outrage.
Thanks to the 253K+ people who viewed the initial post and the thousands who liked and shared. Please keep spreading the word. We need to figure out a way to counter-message and fight back. This is a moral obscenity.
Read 7 tweets
Steve Horn Profile picture
May 14
Personally was planning on trying to make virtual low key time trials and even training groups more of a thing if anyone wants in. Road races are kind of a scam industry that turns running into a racket instead of something done for pure individual joy + self-challenge.
There’s the added element of it seeming incredibly stupid to risk getting COVID in the midst of a healthy activity. Another reason I won’t be doing road races for the foreseeable future besides costs, tied to doing it at the time organizers pick, etc.
That said, I’ve done nine marathons including 3x at Boston and think a cool challenge would be a solo marathon (no one cheering besides maybe my wife) maybe end of year or early next year. Gotta get in shape! Anyone interested in joining a virtual solo marathon challenge?
Read 4 tweets
Steve Horn Profile picture
May 12
Imagine working on a science agency and being like: “Yeah, I think we should collect less data + present it deceptively.” The banality of evil on full display, killing people quietly by concealing numbers and manipulating data. Seriously insidious stuff. Can’t sugarcoat it.
Okay, so why is this maybe worse then banally evil? Because it’s willfully misleading to assess risk. Without any explanation I’ve seen, CDC switched to completely arbitrary metric around percentage of deaths compared to everything else one could possibly die of is useless.
It’d be like living next to a toxic wasteland like Chernobyl or something (COVID still a top killer + compounds other top things that kill) and saying “Yeah, but as a trial percentage of what you can die of, it’s really only small. There’s 1,000 ways to die.”
Read 8 tweets
Steve Horn Profile picture
May 10
Are there actual volunteers who show up in any meaningful number at these YIMBY rallies? I'm not a NIMBY at all (people in my neighborhood are and I refused to join the group over their parochialism and BS about "changing community character"), but at least NIMBYs are volunteers
Might be wrong, but at least locally (never heard of "YIMBY" in the midwest) everyone I've seen identify as a YIMBY here is somehow on the payroll of developers who are gentrifying communities and making them unaffordable. Or, it's politicians seeking developer money lol.
It's just an additional thing here, but I've also dealt with this guy during my days as a reporter. He worked on behalf of either the Chamber or Lincoln Club (not much different, so kind of distinction sans difference lol) to try to defeat the more progressive candidate.
Read 4 tweets
Steve Horn Profile picture
Apr 2
So, Nathan Fletcher rose to the upper echelon of San Diego and California Democratic politics alongside Lorena Gonzalez without even basic things about his past being verified. Like, where he got a college degree or even if he has one. Same for his time in the GOP.
Apparently he also had a kid he hadn't disclosed from an out of marriage relationship who just "showed up" several years ago. It should go without saying, but basic facts about someone's background who oversees millions in budget money should be asked about incessantly.
May have sounded harsh when I said it yesterday, but Nathan Fletcher is the George Santos of San Diego. There are a lot of things about his background that just weren't fully vetted. See Trumpian explanation about transcripts. sandiegouniontribune.com/news/watchdog/…
Read 4 tweets

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