Thread by @RALee85

.@CentreAST wrote about the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on future Russian military-technical cooperation and international arms demand.
bmpd.livejournal.com/4689552.html

They think that, under the most optimistic conditions for Russia, Russian's international trade situation will not normalize until 2027-2028 at the earliest, which means Russian arms exports will remain constrained until then as long as sanctions are in place. 2/

They note that the ability of both sides to conduct maneuver became exhausted quickly, which led to a transition to positional combat. But they say it isn't clear if this was unique to this war or is representative of changes in warfare more broadly. 3/

They argue the war has shown the decisive role played by ground forces because only they are capable of occupying and holding territory. They also noted that large amount of equipment and ammo required, though PGMs are an alternative to the large number of unguided munitions. 4/

They emphasize the small, military tactical UAV as a new market (mostly COTS models now). They think there will be strong demand for C-UAS, 5th generation fighters, air defense, tactical PGMs (like NLOS), new tanks/armored vehicles, and coastal denial of access systems. 5/

Lastly, they conclude that any normalization is unlikely because the West will not agree to any serious settlement with Russia unless Russia withdraws (or is forced) back to the February 24 borders. 6/