Ryan Burge 📊 Profile picture
May 16 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
For all the talk about how conservative Christians are the most involved in the political process, let me share some data.

Atheists engage in many political activities at 2x the rate of white evangelicals.

🧵 with graphs!

graphsaboutreligion.com/p/no-one-parti…
In political activities of every type, atheists are the most active or tied for the most active.

Most likely to donate money, contact a public official, put up a political yard sign.

But also score high on attending political meetings and volunteering for a campaign. Image
I took all six acts, added them up, and calculated the mean political activity score.

Guess who is at the top? Atheists, followed closely by Jews.

Then a huge gap.

Average atheist: 1.52 political acts.
Average American: .91.

Atheists are ~65% more politically engaged. Image
But maybe this is because atheists typically have higher education and higher income, right?

So I tested that in a regression.

At every level of education, atheists are at the very top end of political engagement. Jews are a little lower.

Christians are nowhere close. Image
This is crystal clear when it comes to making a political donation. This every election year from 2012 through 2022.

In every recent election cycle an atheist is TWICE as likely to donate compared to a white evangelical.

The narrative needs to change a bit. Image
But there are a lot more white evangelicals than atheists, obviously.

However, the gap is not as big as most people would guess.

In the 2020 data, 4.7% of the entire sample were white evangelicals who made a political donation.

But! 3.1% were atheist donors. Image
The Religious Right was easily the most important religion and politics story of the last 50 years.

What will more than likely dominate this part of the political world in the next 50 years will be growing importance of non-religious Americans.

They are activated and engaged. Image

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More from @ryanburge

May 14
I'm in @politico this morning, talking about how data from the @ReligionCensus, can tell us a lot about how the American political landscape has changed over the last 10 years and what that means for both parties in the 2024 election and beyond.

🧵

politico.com/news/magazine/…
Here's the map that drives the discussion.

I calculated the share of each county that was part of a religious group in 2010 and 2020.

You can clearly see what religion is on the decline and where it is gaining strength.

Here are a few case studies of important counties: Image
A lot suburban counties in the industrial Midwest (states like WI, MI, and PA) are losing religion at an incredibly rapid rate.

Bucks County, PA is a prime example.

Religion is down EIGHTEEN points from 2010 and 2020.

Biden gained ~5 points on election day vs Obama in 2012. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 13
So, the Southern Baptist Convention has lost 1.3 million members in the last 3 years.

In an article for @TGC, I lay out my thinking for why this is happening.

1. Trust
2. Demography
3. The Nones and the Nons

🧵w/some graphs.

thegospelcoalition.org/article/sbc-me…
The first is an absolute collapse in trust, broadly, but organized religion specifically.

Every birth cohort is less trusting of religion today than they were in early adulthood.

Look at the youngest cohorts.
Trust was >40% when they were college aged.
~15% now. Image
It's also really hard to outrun demography. And that's certainly the case for the SBC.

60% of adult Southern Baptists have seen their 55th birthday. 33% have seen their 65th.

25% are under the age of 45.

Every death has to be offset with a new member. That's hard. Image
Read 6 tweets
May 10
The Southern Baptist Convention just released its membership statistics from 2022.

The news is bad. Very bad.

The largest single year decline ever.

A deep dive here, with some other indicators of a really bleak future.

graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-2022-dat…
The rise of the SBC through the post WW2 period is just unbelievably strong.

They were adding a million members every four years from 1946 through 1982.

Then it took 8 yrs to go from 14M to 15M.
Then 11 years to go from 15M to 16M.

Then, the wheels came off. Image
If you track year over year membership changes, the decline of the SBC began much earlier.

There was still growth in the 1960s and 1970s, but it began to slow noticeably.

Then, the declines came. They were most at first: .1% or .2%.

The last three years: -3%, -3%, -3.5%. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 9
Everyone knows that religion is declining, but what does that actually mean for a specific denomination?

I did a deep dive into the PCUSA to provide a sense of how fast their membership has dropped and when they may cease to exist.

Short🧵.

graphsaboutreligion.com/p/what-does-de…
This is the official membership of the PCUSA from it's founding in 1983 through 2022.

3.1M in 1984 -> 1.1M members in 2022.

There's not been a single year in which reported membership has done up. Image
And, here's what's even worse news for the PCUSA - the year over year drop in membership has accelerated significantly in the last ten years.

Used to be ~1.5% per year.

Now, its >4%. Several years saw annual drops of nearly 6%. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 7
The Catholic Church offers an incredibly interesting puzzle about how (and why) religion has changed so dramatically over the last fifty years.

I did a deep dive into the woes facing American Catholicism.

Some graphs in a 🧵.

graphsaboutreligion.com/p/catholic-mas…
The Catholic Church, at the highest level of data, is doing pretty okay given the rise of the nones.

26% of Americans were Catholic in 1972.
25% of Americans were Catholic in 2010.

There has been a noticeable dip in the last 10 years. Down to 21% in 2021. Image
But that glosses over an even more consequential shift in the American Catholic Church.

Mass attendance has fallen dramatically.

50% of Catholics attended weekly in 1972.
It's less than 25% now.

Other traditions have seen stability, if not small increases. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
New @RNS - another data entry in the debate over online worship services and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The data comes from Pew and was collected in July of 2020.

There's one staggering stat in here that pastors need to see in the next tweet.

(1/6)

religionnews.com/2023/03/24/cov…
I excluded people who said that they didn't attend services before COVID and don't plan to attend after.

That was 43% of the sample.

But, among those who planned to go back after COVID:

39% were not attending AT ALL (either online or in-person) in July of 2020.

(2/6)
Were folks who were only attending online during the pandemic less likely to come back to face-to-face worship after COVID was over?

Nah, not really.

Only 10% said they would attend in person less often.

20% said that they would attend more often.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets

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