Disney’s #thelittlemermaid is not just Disney’s best live-action remake, it is the best film they’ve released in years.
The original is precious and has been seared into our childhoods. So skepticism is natural, but all concerns quickly wash away once Halle hits the screen.
. @HalleBailey BECOMES Ariel. Like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman, Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump, and Robert Downey Jr in Ironman, Bailey personifies the character and you quickly realize that no one else could play the role but her. Sweet, strong, subtle, and charismatic. She soars.
The great @melissamccarthy as Ursula does the impossible. She takes enough from Pat Carroll's portrayal to make it familiar, but she heightens the humor and darkens the depths.
Every time she appeared the audience cheered. Just nasty and delicious.
Awkwafina and Daveed Diggs are the true comic relief and boy do they deliver. Their ‘true to life' designs have received mixed reactions from snippets, but they work in the film. They have distinct personalities and bring true, well-deserved laughter, plus a great new song!
I was especially taken with Jonah Hauer-King as Prince Eric. He gives the character much-needed life, a broader backstory, and his chemistry with Bailey is palpable.
You can feel them fall in love, you believe it, and that makes the ending even more satisfying. (Bring tissues)
The film has some intense sequences that remind me of classic Walt Disney animated films. Back when Walt would allow his villains to inhabit truly scary environments.
The film stays family friendly, but it does have an edge. An edge that gives the film real stakes.
Finally, the concerns about the film being visually too dark are ridiculous. The film POPS on screen. Vibrant and colorful. The trailer focuses on sequences that take place deep in the ocean or in a swamp at night.
The VAST majority of the film is bright and brilliant.
I am so excited for everyone to see this incredible film. Millions of children will have their own version of this story to grow up with. And those of us who grew up with the original, now have a version that respects, honors, and enhances the source material.
“The Little Mermaid" is peak Disney and will elicit the same strong emotional response as the most beloved Disney films from the last 100 years.
The world needs a film like this right now.
A film that teaches us to love one another, regardless of differences.
Disney+ and Genie+ provide Disney with enormous amounts of data regarding the true behavior of consumers.
Disney park fans (and some outdated Disney podcasts) obsess over guest surveys.
When in reality, the data gathered from actual activity is what guides decisions.
1/9
Surveys are subject to an endless barrage of biases.
- Type of folks who take survey aren't representative.
- Folks who take surveys tend to be those who have closer connections to Disney than the average consumer.
2/9
(Disney survey biases cont.)
- Respondent may want to answer only one type of question, so blindly say "yes" to all others.
- Social desirability bias. This one is big. People respond in a way that represents who they want to be, not who they actually are or what they do.
3/9
I am very positive on Disney moving forward. With the way the stock market is these days, I am not worried about a 8-9% drop following earnings.
Things are so swingy these days, it really doesn't mean much. Just hold tight and let things play out.
Where do we go from here?
1/11
The concern I referred to earlier was about the broader media market and Disney's shift to streaming. I think they need to super-charge that transition.
Linear is done. We've all known that, but it is very clear that it's happening faster than expected.
2/11
Those who hang out until it completely crashes will end up like Blockbuster. It's time for Disney to start cutting and transitioning faster than ever.
Disney's ties to linear are many: ABC, FX, ESPN, local affiliates in huge markets.
This is going to take time.
3/11
1/ Thread: DISNEY EARNINGS Fiscal Q2
Here we go, $DIS will report earnings in a matter of minutes.
Wall Street Expectations:
Rev: $21.8B
EPS: $0.93
Disney+ Subs: +2.21m
Parks Revenue: $7.67B
Parks Income: $2.14B
2/ As we wait, a reminder... after-hours trading is erratic and only reflects a small number of traders. Wait to see what happens with the stock price over a few days or weeks.
HERE WE GO... hang tight.
3/ DISNEY EARNINGS
Disney essentially in line with most estimates.
Rev: $21.82B (match)
EPS: 0.93 (match)
1/ DISNEY Fiscal Q2 Earnings PREVIEW (I'll post actuals and analysis on separate thread):
$DIS will report Jan-March '23 earnings at 4pm/1pm
Wall Street Estimates:
Revenue: $21.8B (range $20.85B-$22.57B)
Earnings Per Share EPS: .93 cents (range .96-1.14)
2/ Nearly every analyst views Disney as being undervalued right now.
Meaning, their stock price is lower than it should (or will) be.
$DIS currently sits around $101.39
All major trading firms have Disney at either a Buy or Hold, with none labeling it as a Sell
3/ Analysts expect Disney to add around 2.21 million new Disney+ subs after last quarters sub loss (due to the company losing the India cricket streaming rights).
The big streaming question will be ARPU as cost cutting begins and price hikes and ad tiers are added.
Inflation eases slightly, CPI coming in at 4.9%. Overall expectations were 5% (JP Morgan gets credit for calling 4.9%).
Market flat. Stocks have been pretty anemic.
A real mixed bag of earnings combined with a mixed bag of macro economic factors lead to a lot of stalling.
Bank failures, credit tightening, Fed rate hikes, and still-too-high inflation offset by record low unemployment, SLOWLY cooling inflation, lower gas prices, and (while slowing) a strong consumer.
The bad SLIGHTLY outweighs the good, which equals a stagnant market.
If a few of these depressing factors could be overcome (IE fed stops hikes, inflation sees substantial drops) the the market will take off. You can tell that it wants to, but it can't justify it yet.
If we don't get relief soon enough we will slip into a recession.
Disney $DIS is set to announce Q2 earnings tomorrow. After a string of mediocre to just plain BAD reports from competitors all eyes will be on Disney.
Investors are looking to the parks (once again) to buoy losses from streaming and slowing growth of linear.
(1/8)
This will be the first full qtr w/ price hikes and ad-tiers for D+. This should blunt losses and help them achieve profitability soon (still 2024?).
Disney is the only media company with a HUGE parks division that helps to right the ship as media landscape changes.
(2/8)
The big story will come early in the day as we get the April CPI reading which is not expected to show improvement in inflation.
Recent job's report shows a strong labor market which suggests inflation is still running hot. The market expects the CPI to remain at 5.0%
(3/8)