Since Disney's $DIS earnings were released, there has been a lot of talk about the stock price.
Which can be confusing bc the stock is down around 30% from April's high, even though Disney has released two record shattering films: Inside Out 2 and Deadpool vs Wolverine.
1/25 While Disney's stock is doing better than any other legacy media companies this year, Comcast/Universal and Sony are down TWICE as much as Disney and don't even talk about Warner Bros Disc or Paramount.
Netflix is way up, but they don't deal with linear tv or theaters.
2/25

1/🧵 DISNEY EARNINGS THREAD 👇👇
In just a few minutes Disney $DIS will be revealing their fiscal 2024 q1 earnings.
Remember, Disney's fiscal year starts on Oct 1st. So these earnings cover 10/1-12/31/23.
Stock is hovering around $98-99 ... this will change today.
(cont...) 2/ There are a lot of folks looking at the $100 mark for the stock price. If Disney $DIS can breach that, we could see that trigger a buying spree. Allowing for the stock to breakout.
If the earnings are soft, I think investors might begin to really sour.

Of course Disney wants their theatrical films to be huge box office successes.
However, Disney benefits more from post-theatrical revenue streams than any other media company. Meaning, a box office miss that finds life on streaming is still a HUGE win for TWDC. $DIS
Why?
1/9 Disney has the largest and most interconnected fly wheel of any company. Films bolster streaming services, theme parks bring characters and worlds to fans, cruise ships highlight franchises, musicals go to Broadway, television broadcasts films, etc etc.
2/9

It's been one year since $DIS changed CEOs and one thing is clear: Bob Chapek's most controversial change among park fans continues to actively save The Walt Disney Company.
In '21 Disney swapped out free fast passes for paid Genie+ lightning lanes. And thank God they did.
1/8 The response to Genie+ from Disney Park fans was swift and deafening. Something that happens so often, it has begun to lose its impact.
But the cries from Twitter, YouTube, and various blogs, were quickly drowned out by the boost in revenue.
2/8

Investments in Florida?
Looking at the environment and the changing climate, I can't understand why companies like Disney or Universal would heavily invest in multi-decade projects in Florida.
Heat waves and hurricanes are only going to get worse.
1/10 The Florida of the 70s, 80s, 90s, and even the 2000s thru 2010s, are no longer.
It's always been hot and humid and hurricanes have always been a threat, but extreme conditions are rapidly intensifying with NO sign of slowing (let alone reversing).
2/10

(THREAD) The Walt Disney Company announces Q3 '23 earnings tomorrow afternoon and there will be a lot to comb through.
Here is a preview of things we expect to see and questions that will likely arise.
This quarter could be pretty rough, but Disney often surprises.
1/21 Theme Park attendance will be down compared to last year. We know this bc Disney $DIS basically admitted this in the last earnings call and we can see the attendance dip for this time period at Universal theme parks, SeaWorld, and regional parks.
2/21

This weekend will be huge at the domestic box office:
- Barbie is looking to dominate
- Oppenheimer should do pretty good
- MI:7 will likely have a strong hold
- Elemental, Sound of Freedom, and Spider-Man should continue to leg out nicely.
BUT...
1/7 Remember, a few big hits:
- Super Mario
- Avatar 2
- Guardians 3
- Black Panther 2
... don't solely indicate a healthy box office.
Just like a few big misses:
- The Flash
- Shazam 2
- Strange World
- Ruby Gillman
- Black Adam
... don't solely indicate trouble.
2/7

DISNEY/APPLE Speculation
So I've avoided talking about this, but folks are asking me about it a lot today.
Privately I've been saying that some sort of sale to big tech seems increasingly likely. (Some of you can vouch that I've held this position privately for awhile).
1/20 From what I am hearing from folks both on Wall Street and those close on the Disney side is that some sale is not imminent, but VERY much on the table.
If you follow me you might've noticed my panic about the rapid decline in linear, it's an existential threat.
2/20

🧵DISNEY'S SCALE
There's A LOT of confusion about Disney's size, especially when it concerns theatrical box office performance.
How do films like "The Little Mermaid" compare to the entirety of Disney and what impact do box office hits & flops have? You'd be surprised
⬇️⬇️
1/15 Based on Disney's Q1 & Q2, '23 revenue should hit around $88B. (Nearly 3x Netflix's revenue.)
A large film released by Disney typically has a production budget of ~$200m plus $100m marketing, totaling $300m.
$300m represents 0.34% of $88B, 1/3rd of 1%.
2/15

🧵The favorite *hot take* from armchair media analysts is "studios need to lower film/show budgets."
Not only is the idea moronically simplistic (wikipedia is their only source), it actually runs COUNTER to every other suggestion from these idiots.
Let's dive in...
1/18 Sure 'idiots' seems harsh, but there are far too many folks with a wifi or cellular connection who think that makes them qualified to provide insight into this complex industry.
That alone isn't a problem, the issue is that their idiocy bleeds into and taints the discourse.
2/18

Disney's recent animated films are saving the Walt Disney Company.
The biggest move Disney has made in 25 yrs was shifting to streaming in late '19.
Since then, Disney's animated films have been the #1 streaming movie every year, making them Disney's most valuable assets.
[1/18] 2020 Most Streamed Movies
1. Frozen 2 (Dis)
2. Moana (Dis)
-
4. Onward (Dis/Pixar)

2021
1. Luca (Dis/Pixar) No Theatrical
2. Moana (Dis)
3. Raya & Last Dragon (Dis) Dual Release
4. Frozen 2 (Dis)
-
6. Frozen (Dis)
7. Soul (Dis/Pixar) No Theatrical *released in 2020*
[2/18]

🧵There is A LOT of chatter about the most recent Donald Trump criminal indictment.
We live in a busy world and I would hate for folks to get confused, so here are...
⬇️🇺🇸‼️8 THINGS THAT ARE *NOT* PART OF THE *NEW* TRUMP INDICTMENT‼️🇺🇸⬇️ 1. 2016 Trump Foundation Misuse of Charitable Funds

🧵ENTERTAINMENT MEDIA RANT
The problem with Box Office numbers is that they are so readily available yet so misleading.
So everyone has access to them, but they're easily misunderstood and they truly only tell chapter 1 of a multi-part story.
(1/25) It is like watching the first 8 minutes of an NFL game and claiming victory or defeat.
Everyone is OBSESSED with "xyz film was a flop!" "zyx film didn't make back its budget!!!"
People are suddenly VERY interested in the financial success of films relative to the cost.
(2/25)

Disney+ and Genie+ provide Disney with enormous amounts of data regarding the true behavior of consumers.
Disney park fans (and some outdated Disney podcasts) obsess over guest surveys.
When in reality, the data gathered from actual activity is what guides decisions.
1/9 Surveys are subject to an endless barrage of biases.
- Type of folks who take survey aren't representative.
- Folks who take surveys tend to be those who have closer connections to Disney than the average consumer.
2/9

Disney’s #thelittlemermaid is not just Disney’s best live-action remake, it is the best film they’ve released in years.
The original is precious and has been seared into our childhoods. So skepticism is natural, but all concerns quickly wash away once Halle hits the screen. . @HalleBailey BECOMES Ariel. Like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman, Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump, and Robert Downey Jr in Ironman, Bailey personifies the character and you quickly realize that no one else could play the role but her. Sweet, strong, subtle, and charismatic. She soars.

I am very positive on Disney moving forward. With the way the stock market is these days, I am not worried about a 8-9% drop following earnings.
Things are so swingy these days, it really doesn't mean much. Just hold tight and let things play out.
Where do we go from here?
1/11 The concern I referred to earlier was about the broader media market and Disney's shift to streaming. I think they need to super-charge that transition.
Linear is done. We've all known that, but it is very clear that it's happening faster than expected.
2/11

1/ Thread: DISNEY EARNINGS Fiscal Q2
Here we go, $DIS will report earnings in a matter of minutes.
Wall Street Expectations:
Rev: $21.8B
EPS: $0.93
Disney+ Subs: +2.21m
Parks Revenue: $7.67B
Parks Income: $2.14B 2/ As we wait, a reminder... after-hours trading is erratic and only reflects a small number of traders. Wait to see what happens with the stock price over a few days or weeks.
HERE WE GO... hang tight.

1/ DISNEY Fiscal Q2 Earnings PREVIEW (I'll post actuals and analysis on separate thread):
$DIS will report Jan-March '23 earnings at 4pm/1pm
Wall Street Estimates:
Revenue: $21.8B (range $20.85B-$22.57B)
Earnings Per Share EPS: .93 cents (range .96-1.14) 2/ Nearly every analyst views Disney as being undervalued right now.
Meaning, their stock price is lower than it should (or will) be.
$DIS currently sits around $101.39
All major trading firms have Disney at either a Buy or Hold, with none labeling it as a Sell

Inflation eases slightly, CPI coming in at 4.9%. Overall expectations were 5% (JP Morgan gets credit for calling 4.9%).
Market flat. Stocks have been pretty anemic.
A real mixed bag of earnings combined with a mixed bag of macro economic factors lead to a lot of stalling. Bank failures, credit tightening, Fed rate hikes, and still-too-high inflation offset by record low unemployment, SLOWLY cooling inflation, lower gas prices, and (while slowing) a strong consumer.
The bad SLIGHTLY outweighs the good, which equals a stagnant market.

Disney $DIS is set to announce Q2 earnings tomorrow. After a string of mediocre to just plain BAD reports from competitors all eyes will be on Disney.
Investors are looking to the parks (once again) to buoy losses from streaming and slowing growth of linear.
(1/8) This will be the first full qtr w/ price hikes and ad-tiers for D+. This should blunt losses and help them achieve profitability soon (still 2024?).
Disney is the only media company with a HUGE parks division that helps to right the ship as media landscape changes.
(2/8)

The best analogy for the MCU is the NFL.
With preseason, regular season, playoffs, and the Super Bowl all mirroring a Marvel "saga."
It explains box office returns and helps put to rest the "marvel fatigue" nonsense.
Let me explain...
(1/12) Think of each class of MCU projects like this...
Disney+ shows = preseason games
Individual movies = regular season
First team up movies = playoffs
Final team up movie of saga = Super Bowl
How?? Why??
(2/12)