Thread by @TrentTelenko

To quote a message sent to me,

Russia tried a "...concerted planned effort with ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles in a multi axis attack to degrade and swamp and then destroy defences....and it failed"

1/5

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1658445345746038788

Saturation attacks on a 2.5 missile batteries with 200 ready to launch missiles are going to need a whole lot of attacking drones, missiles & planes to guarantee success.

Given a 90% hit rate, you need more than 180 attackers are required to get one through the defense.

2/5

And with 20 Patriot launchers, plus radars plus command centers, you are going to need 40(+) to get through.

And as for the assumption that those night pictures & videos are of Patriot launchers as opposed to a NASAM, SAMP-T or IRIS-T launchers known to be in the Kyiv area?
3/5

That is a real reach.

Ukraine's PSU SAM operators are the most combat experienced pros on the planet.

Nothing in the Kyiv night sky that can be downed by an AMRAAM, Aster-15 (pictured left) or IRIS-T (right) would have gotten a Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile.

4/5

The latest Patriot missiles would have been saved for ballistic missiles and Russia's used for land attack S-300 SAM's, for which see the PAC-3 below⬇️

Kyiv is defended, but PSU needs 5.5 more batties of Patriot to have the defense it had in Feb 2022

5/5

https://twitter.com/Roberto05246129/status/1658455977706901505