Lakshya Jain Profile picture
May 16 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Looking at the consistent Democratic overperformances via persuasion with swing voters (even when base turnout lags) makes me think that if the general election were today, Andy Beshear would hang on in #KYGov. Underlying signals suggest a decently pro-Dem environment.
We still have the race at a tossup over @SplitTicket_ — there's a lot of time for things to develop and change and it's a pretty red state, but it's hard to unseat a popular incumbent governor who's got great marks on his disaster response
@SplitTicket_ Would also be stunned, given the Jacksonville result today, if Dems actually lost the Biden +25 seat in the PA special today to replace Mike Zabel. These things often indicate *something* common about the national environment. But internals have it close so...*shrug*
Yeah, this isn’t likely to even be close.

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More from @lxeagle17

May 18
Twenty years ago, both parties came up with conflicting theories on how they were entering a new age of dominance.

Neither of them panned out, so now everyone is determined to ignore *any* signs of danger for either party because things always work themselves out automatically.
I have written many times about how I think the fact that there are only two parties means that neither the GOP nor the Dems are likely to ever really be locked out of power for too long — the vacuum created by dissatisfied voters is usually filled by someone eventually. But...
How is that filled? By one party pivoting their messaging to fill take in groups of dissatisfied voters. Rs haven't done that yet. Increasingly, what they've done is appeal to seniors at the cost of decreasing margins with Millennials/Gen-z. This is not a sustainable strategy.
Read 5 tweets
May 17
It is preposterous that arguably the biggest elections website in the world can create a misleading, multi-thousand word article on the Red Wave That Wasn't which simply says that the GOP ran decent candidates and was blindsided by Democratic money and mail-in ballot harvesting.
I'm sorry, I really do hate to be critical of any forecaster or analyst, because I know how hard elections analysis is. But we also have a duty to stay factual and honest, and all this article does is skirt around and wrongly dismiss things that we have obvious data.
What irritates me is that this is the same site that built a "poll unskewer" in 2022 despite having absolutely no factual or historical basis to suggest that this was a good or serious idea. Hundreds of thousands of people read them, and it's borderline misrepresentation of data.
Read 4 tweets
May 17
It’s flatly untrue that every indicator pointed to a big Republican wave. Democrats had overperformed in every single special election since the Dobbs decision was handed down, and we even noted this @SplitTicket_ when we told people to be aware of a possible Dem overperformance. Image
@SplitTicket_ "There’s a case to be made that this Democratic overperformance might then actually be what ends up happening [...] when was the last time a party had robust primary turnout and overperformed in a ton of August specials, only to get blown out in November?"…
@SplitTicket_ What is especially odd about that RealClearPolitics column is that it brushes over candidate quality, dismisses Dobbs outright, and discounts Trump as a factor. Then, it spins to the usual "Dems had amazing turnout because of mail-in voting in key states".

This is untrue!
Read 6 tweets
May 8
*Sighs deeply* Every time we write a piece like this, so many people somehow think we're forecasting the end of the Republican Party, when we actually devote *multiple paragraphs* to how the party might rebound and adjust to solve the problem.

Diagnosis does not equal demise. Image
The one thing that has consistently rung true in American politics is that people (including analysts) conflate a diagnosis with a death sentence. We've seen from things like "The Emerging Democratic Majority" and the "Permanent Republican Majority" that this is always dumb.
But somewhere along the lines, people took the failures of those prognostications to mean that the diagnosis of problems should never happen.

Parties face problems all the time, and it's good to point them out. Historically, they readjust, but history is a guide, not a panacea.
Read 4 tweets
May 8
How Democratic are young voters in swing states (at least by party registration)?

NC: D+11
PA, FL: D+17
AZ: D+22
NH: D+25
NV: D+28

For @SplitTicket_, our most detailed piece yet on a *potential* generational cliff.…
@SplitTicket_ There's only so many ways to tiptoe around the fact, but I'm finding very little to suggest that Republicans are going to be able to easily skirt around this huge and ahistoric generational chasm, because they've done nothing to try and address it up until this point.
Before I accidentally start a firestorm, *please read the piece*. I promise that the arguments about independent voters, young people potentially getting more conservative as they age, and statewide battleground splits have been touched upon. I've said all I wanted to in there.
Read 6 tweets
May 3
Another way to look at this is that the Democrats got abysmal minority turnout and unfavorable economic conditions (like 8% inflation), and the national environment was still only R+1.5 despite all that.

Not sure that's something for the GOP to crow about.
There are a lot of problems Democrats need to solve with Black turnout, but one contextualizing caveat is that this always plunges in midterms, and especially in midterms with a Dem in the White House, so the decline between 2018 and 2022 can be a bit overstated.
In midterms, the out-party is generally a shade less likely to show up. Black voters are 90% Democratic, so it makes sense that they would turn out less in a Biden midterm. These issues are magnified by other factors, like race and education, but partisan enthusiasm matters a lot
Read 4 tweets

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