Armchair Warlord Profile picture
May 17 24 tweets 12 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Let's talk about Russian small-unit tactics on the offensive. With Russian troops stepping up attacks across the front in Ukraine, I suspect this will be very relevant in the near future.

A video came out recently which I will use to illustrate: t.me/DDGeopolitics/…
This video was produced by journalists embedded with Russian troops near Spornoe, which I understand are a former LPR unit filled out by Russian reservists. These are ordinary motorized riflemen, not elite troops, equipped with BMP-1s and T-80BVs. Image
The producers do little to sugarcoat things, although they avoid showing anyone being killed on camera. They freely admit multiple vehicles were hit and at least one Russian tanker was killed during the attack. Image
They also have no problem showing moments that might be unflattering for the Russians, including two occasions where reversing vehicles collide with following vehicles.

What's one more dent on a tank? ImageImage
The mission here was to seize a series of Ukrainian positions west of the Russian-held (but very much front-line) gas compressor station at Spornoye. I've marked them on the map as Strongpoints 1, 2 and 3. ImageImageImage
The Russians attacked with a rather small company, apparently some 50 men in three platoons with one tank and two personnel carriers with infantry each. There seems to have been roughly the same number of Ukrainian defenders with at least one tank in support. Image
Russian troops in the area had made a habit of operating late in the day and at night rather than in the morning, and surprised the defenders by attacking at dawn. ImageImage
The Russians attacked Strongpoint 1 first. It appears they moved infantry into the compressor station under darkness and launched the initial attack on foot, securing a foothold on the north side after suppressing the defenders.

Armor moved up in support after the first attack. ImageImageImage
The infantry broke into two groups, one clearing the trenches while the other covered them against counterattacks coming from outside the trench system.

This was all done after the Ukrainians called down indirect fire on their own positions. ImageImageImage
After the initial wave secured the north side of Strongpoint 1 a second platoon attacked to clear the south half.

This platoon moved up mounted on BMPs and led by a tank, avoiding Ukrainian mortar fire. ImageImageImage
The tank pushed into position to fire directly into the Ukrainian-held ravine while the infantry dismounted, initially using a nearby ditch for cover. ImageImageImageImage
The infantry directed the tank onto remaining pockets of resistance as they assaulted through the position.

With the strongpoint secure and the infantry established in place, the armored vehicles - which attract enemy fire - withdrew. ImageImage
Another platoon was engaged as they moved up to attack Strongpoint 3, with at least one tank hit and disabled with the gunner killed.

A second tank was also hit, with the crew concussed, but pressed on to continue the attack. ImageImageImageImage
To get to Strongpoint 3 they had to deal with Strongpoint 2, a bunker built into a collapsed building on the edge of the compressor station. The damaged tank approached and demolished it at point-blank range.

Russian infantry occupied the ruin shortly after. ImageImageImage
That platoon then pushed on Strongpoint 3, suppressing the trenches with fire from tanks and BMPs and reducing the defenders to holding their rifles overhead to fire back. ImageImage
Two Russian BMPs approached the south side of Strongpoint 3 and dismounted infantry practically on top of the trench, who immediately assaulted. The BMPs withdrew quickly after delivering their troops.

An abandoned Ukrainian tank is visible just past the BMPs. ImageImage
Ukrainian troops fled the strongpoint across open ground as the assault began. The Russians called in artillery to harass them and consolidated on the newly-seized position. ImageImageImage
This was hardly some grand, sweeping offensive - it was a limited attack by a single company to take three strongpoints and move the front line 200m forwards. You can, however, see the intricacy of even this small fight.
The company made one dismounted attack with infantry moving up on foot and two mounted attacks with infantry dismounting close to enemy positions.

Throughout, the infantry cooperated closely with their armored support to suppress the enemy so they could move into close combat.
On the other hand, the tanks led the way across open terrain and blasted their way past exposed positions like Strongpoint 2.

BMP crews seemed quite aware of their vehicles' thin skin and withdrew quickly after dropping off infantry.
The attack was made under persistent Ukrainian artillery fire and against a well-equipped enemy who abandoned at least one tank on the battlefield. The Russians obviously suffered several casualties and at least one tanker KIA.
This is very standard combined arms stuff and hews closely to Soviet doctrine, with combined-arms platoons, tanks leading the way, and infantry dismounting almost on top of enemy positions to immediately assault. The main innovation here is the observing drone.
It's also a very far cry from the nonsensical propaganda we commonly see about Russian operations in Ukraine. There were no "meat waves" here, nor any crushing barrage of artillery fire. Just a dawn attack with Soviet-style combined arms from a modest motor rifle unit.
Addendum: According to @tretter50001 , the Russians also lost three infantrymen KIA.

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More from @ArmchairW

May 16
Wild video from Kiev just now - a Patriot battery apparently emptying its launchers (I counted 30 missile launches in two minutes) before being struck and probably destroyed by an incoming Russian missile.

t.me/DDGeopolitics/…
I am told there was a second impact and fire after this clip cuts. Judging by the fact there's only one flash in the sky during the clip, these 30 launches appear to have resulted in only one interception out of a likely three missiles fired at the battery.
According to Fennec, this entire production cost north of $160 million US taxpayer dollars.

Read 9 tweets
May 14
We're now on D+5 of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was predictably launched into the Bakhmut flanks after Prigozhin spent months losing his mind on social media.

The modest gains shown have cost multiple AFU brigades and thousands of casualties to achieve. Image
It's also noteworthy that the only Ukrainian gains have been in highly contested areas that the Russians were likely unable to fortify properly. Large attacks further north near Soledar were complete failures.

The AFU will need to commit significant new forces to keep moving.
Russian troops remain on the offensive in Bakhmut proper and are on the verge of seizing the city outright, suggesting that - despite Prigozhin's remarks - they are not particularly concerned about their flanks. In fact they've sped up recently. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 6
Let's talk about defense in depth. Seems appropriate at the moment.

A thread: Image
Most field manuals will give you a map like this and talk in circles around how this tactic is actually supposed to work, probably because most soldiers (with good reason) don't particularly like admitting to trading lives for space and time. ImageImage
Regardless, it is simple, easy to execute, and works extremely well.

Everyone is all gung-ho to do a slick mobile defense until they find out that if they miss the counterattack timing by an hour the entire plan falls apart. Image
Read 23 tweets
May 5
Looks like events have once again confirmed my analysis two days after the fact.

Today a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drone seems to have malfunctioned and began circling aimlessly over Kiev. Apparently thinking it was Russian, they tried to shoot it down. ImageImage
Emphasis on "tried." Despite this engagement happening in broad daylight and at low altitude, it took them half an hour of firing with small arms, antiaircraft guns, and multiple MANPAD launches before they finally hit it and brought it down. ImageImage
Notably absent from this air defense effort were the IRIS-Ts and Patriots that supposedly cover Kiev from air attack. Maybe they've been stripped and sent forward for the counteroffensive as well.

In any event it's clear why the Russians can hit Kiev with Geran drones at will. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
Because Ukraine is enduring a large-scale missile strike right now (I thought Russia was out of missiles?) I think it's time to review their claims of how effective their air defenses are against these attacks.

We can do this because some key info came out today. Image
Specifically, the Russians launched a devastating strike yesterday with Lancet kamikaze UAVs that destroyed four S-300 theater SAM launchers and, apparently, the Gepard AA gun that was supposed to be protecting the battery from drone attack.

They released footage and photos. ImageImageImageImage
Before the Russians proved their claim, the Ukrainians put out a statement claiming that they had shot down five Lancets and a surveillance UAV.

As we can see, this was done by ramming their irreplaceable heavy antiaircraft missile systems into them. Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
With all respect to the OP, this thread really begs the question: "What is this British Army supposed to be doing?"

OP lays out a concept for an eight-brigade British land force relevant both "locally" in Europe and "globally" in the Pacific. But how relevant is it really?
Well, the European threat to the UK is Russia. And contrary to the brave public line, the most likely result of the Ukrainian War at this point is the unconditional surrender of Ukraine and a 700,000-strong Russian army pointed squarely at Europe from 2025 onwards. Image
By my calculations on Russian postwar force structure this works out to something like 36 divisions. Not brigades. Divisions.

Under this plan the British will basically be able to field two divisions to Europe in response. This is of course entirely inadequate. Image
Read 9 tweets

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