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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
May 18 • 3 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I think this is what's happening, as does Rybar and Murz. Russia has moved a large amount of artillery and other reserves to the Bakhmut area, but it doesn't appear Ukraine has committed any of its new brigades to the area.
t.me/rybar/47193
t.me/wehearfromyani… ImageImage
VDV units were holding the flanks, but they were replaced with quite weak/poorly equipped units who were pushed back over the past week. Russia responded with a heavy use of artillery, but not clear if they'll commit better units to the flanks. 2/
Of the Russian units that were pushed back over the past week on the flanks of Bakhmut, the 4th brigade was previously on the Kreminna front, and the 72nd and and 200th MRB were previously in the Vuhledar area. 3/

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
May 16
.@CentreAST wrote about the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on future Russian military-technical cooperation and international arms demand.
bmpd.livejournal.com/4689552.html
They think that, under the most optimistic conditions for Russia, Russian's international trade situation will not normalize until 2027-2028 at the earliest, which means Russian arms exports will remain constrained until then as long as sanctions are in place. 2/
They note that the ability of both sides to conduct maneuver became exhausted quickly, which led to a transition to positional combat. But they say it isn't clear if this was unique to this war or is representative of changes in warfare more broadly. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 16
The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 6 Kinzhal missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft, 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, 3 S-400 or Iskander-M missiles, and 6 Shahed / Geran-2 drones over night, all of which were successfully intercepted.
facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/p… Image
They also say they shot down 3 ISR UAVs, including an Orlan and a, cough, Supercam. Clearly, Russia launched a diversity of missiles and drones from different directions to try to confuse Ukrainian air defenses. 2/
3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 13
The Russian Air Force lost a Su-34 Bomber, Su-35S fighter, and two Mi-8 helicopters today (one was a Mi-8MTPR-1 with a Rychag-AV) over Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.
t.me/milhelipilot/1…
t.me/voenacher/44520
t.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/bazabazon/17634 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
All 9 crew members of the aircraft were killed. Kommersant says they were likely part of a single group preparing to strike Chernihiv with the Mi-8 providing EW/CSAR support. Their experts suggest this was likely an ambush with air-to-air missiles. 2/
kommersant.ru/doc/5985387
The Fighterbomber channel notes this is the Russian Air Force's worst single day of losses since March 2022. The Helicopter Pilot channel is incredulous that they put a Mi-8MTPR-1 anywhere near the front calling it "idiocy". 3/
t.me/milhelipilot/1…
t.me/fighter_bomber… ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 12
A building at the Machine Building Factory 100 in Luhansk was struck today. Russian channels speculate that it was targeted either by a Grom-2 ballistic missile, GLSDM, or Storm Shadow cruise missile.
t.me/milinfolive/10…
t.me/milinfolive/10…
t.me/milinfolive/10… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Russian sources also say that the wreckage of an ADM-160B Miniature Air-Launched Decoys was found. The 3rd photo allegedly shows debris from the missile used in the strike. 2/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/e…
t.me/milinfolive/10…
t.me/rian_ru/202605
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImage
3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 11
A # of Russian telegram channels believe Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun with successful advances NW and SW of Bakhmut and Soledar. They warn of fighting/movements near Maiorsk, Kupyansk, and Hulyaipole.
t.me/wargonzo/12459
t.me/epoddubny/15910
t.me/sashakots/39713 ImageImageImageImage
Plenty of criticism from Wagner-linked accounts of the retreats by Russian MoD units. Of course, poor MoD-Wagner coordination is one reason why a counterattack in the Bakhmut area makes sense. 2/
t.me/yaremshooter/1…
t.me/notes_veterans…
t.me/rybar/46916 ImageImage
Girkin earlier predicted that Ukraine's main effort would be in Zaporizhzhia with secondary efforts in Kherson and maybe Donetsk. He says MoD units sent to defend Bakhmut's flanks were only equipped to man rear area checkpoints.3/
t.me/strelkovii/4798
t.me/strelkovii/4796 ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
May 5
Video from Bakhmut presumably after bombardment by Russian incendiary munitions.
t.me/Bakhmut_2022/2…
2/
Video of Bakhmut from Ukrainian SSO. 3/
t.me/ukr_sof/528
Read 4 tweets

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