Today, a story about religions, bugs, mountains, deserts, trade, wars, slaves & more
Here's a challenge. Look at this map and make a guess: what do the red/green/yellow colors represent?
If you thought religions, congrats! These are the *majority* religions in Africa
Green is Islam
Red is Christianism
Yellow is other
But have you ever wondered *why* it's like this?
Hint: who brought these religions here?
Look at Islam in North Africa, the big green blob. Where does it stop? It reaches the Sahara and stops in its south, when forests start, close to the Gulf of Guinea (the big gulf that narrows Africa in the middle)
Why does Islam stop there?
For that, we need to understand first how Islam got there. Look at this historic political map of Africa. For thousands of years there's just Egypt, somewhat connected to the Middle East. Then, the Roman Empire for centuries. And then, in less than 100 years, it becomes Muslim
During all that time, North Africa was connected to Europe and the Middle East.
Because North Africa is closer geographically to Eurasia than to sub-Saharan Africa.
Same latitude, same climate, no impassable barriers
But the Sahara was impenetrable
Until the Muslim Arabs brought the domesticated camel with their conquests in the 7th century.
With it, they could start venturing south, to do what everybody did at the time: trade, including slavery
Over centuries of trade and slavery, Islam slowly progressed south
But these were desert people. It was much harder to adapt to the savanna, and then the jungle, and then the coast
This shows an inescapable fact of Africa's geography: its north-south axis slowed down any transmission, be it of technology, animals, plants, or kingdoms.
Look at all the climate changes!
Compare them to Eurasia (North Africa should be included in the Eurasia map)
These barriers are huge. Arab empires couldn't span across the Sahara for example. Slavery came from raids... and trade with local kingdoms.
And empires, which arose in the only place that could host them—the shores of the Niger River, around what's today ~Mali and Niger
These empires, of course, participated in the slave trade too
Slavery was common across the world for the longest time, from America to Europe, Africa, Asia...
You beat an enemy? You enslave it.
Look at this population density map
Empty desert. Humans appear as soon as the climate makes regions habitable
The populations just south of the desert hosted these empires
Mauritania also illustrates this north-south border, like Mali and Niger
Why is the capital Nouakchott?
• A village when chosen capital in 1958
• Had to be on the coast (most trade potential, most ppl)
• The 2 most powerful cities were Nouadhibou in the north coast and St Louis, near the Senegal River, in the south coast
• Nouakchott was a compromise between the 2 groups
If you're paying attention, you saw that the map above showed slave trade in northern Africa... but also on the east.
Do you see the overlap with Islam?
Africa's majority Muslim populations are those that traded with the Muslim world for centuries
This is not a unique feature of Africa: Muslims traded in the Indian Ocean for centuries (and sometimes conquered), and brought Islam with them. Compare the maps of trade and Islam
It's not just slave trade though, it's any type of trade. The most long-lasting in Africa was slaves, but also gold and ivory (we'll talk another day about why, and why it matters). Some others include salts, woods, animals, resins..
But the influence of Islam on the east coast doesn't go as far inland as in the north. Why (aside from climate)?
Mountains and bugs
1st, mountains: the Rift is a huge range crossing East Africa. An impassable natural barrier. See how altitude compares with religion
2, Bugs: Malaria
Notice how Malaria follows a north-south gradient too
It stops Muslim traders in the north, but also in the east
The transition zone between Islam & Christianity also has strong local beliefs.
And the maximum level of malaria on the east coast
Where Muslim traders (and raiders) could reach, they did.
There, they traded—mainly gold, ivory, slaves.
Who did they trade with or raid? The local kingdoms and chiefdoms, who also traded the same things
OK so that's why Islam is in the green area in Africa:
• Sahara-based trade/raids in the north
• Indian Ocean-based trade/raids in the east
There, Muslims couldn't penetrate far inland, so their presence is more coastal
What about Christianity?
It's the same principle
Except Europeans came much later to sub-Saharan Africa
The 1st ones were the Portuguese in the late 1400s.
They spent centuries unbothered by other Europeans
They didn't conquer inland because they couldn't. And only wanted trade—including slaves
So they established trading posts
Over the centuries, as other European powers on the Atlantic caught up, they did the same thing:
• Stay on African coasts because of malaria & power of local kingdoms
• Fight for access to trade
This is the period during which most of the slave trade happens: when foreigners are in control of the coasts, and trade with African kingdoms
European demand for slaves, along with the weapons they brought, instigated conflict—and hence death & destruction—in Africa
And then, in the 19th century, during Europe's industrial revolution and max power, it discovers quinine. European death rates from malaria drop from 90% to 17%
This is the result: the Scramble for Africa. A matter of decades.
(Details in the link) unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/why-european…
So this is why the south and west of Africa is more Christian:
• Little Muslim influence
• European (Christian) influence for 500 years
• They reached farther inland after quinine & Scramble for Africa
• The Sahel & Rift mountain range mark the border of their influence
OK running out of tweets again
If this is still interesting, LMK.
Anything I forgot?
Next up, West Africa.
Anything I should include?
I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."