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Rich Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
May 19 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
We have seen (unsurprisingly) a major difference in support by "mode" of collection. Trump always does worse in live interviews (mid-high 40s) and DeSantis does the best (low-mid 30s).

It's the only mode in which Trump never hit 50%.

This is tonight.

It's going in the wrong… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
It means DeSantis has now fallen into the 20s even among live interviews, and if the online and SMS were to even remain the same, he'd fall to about 15% or lower.

It's ugly, folks. Ugly.
Also important to explain those are just "raw" unweighted results we are importing from live interviews. Among those 157 interviews, this is their education, which is clearly very, VERY, educated for a GOP primary.

My followers/viewers knows what this means. But that's not what… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Interestingly, @VivekGRamaswamy is at 5% no matter the mode. He has surpassed @NikkiHaley and Tim Scott in all modes.

As Charlie Kirk observed, it's such a difference in the Republican electorate, the base movement. Incredible change because it's younger and less white.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Rich Baris
May 20
The DeSantis strategy 'he's the anti-lockdown champion' isn't working for a few reasons, the biggest being 1) voters aren't stupid and 2) it's not true.

As @barnes_law correctly pointed out, he was still threatening businesses 2+ months after Trump said, "the cure cannot be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
And let's not get started on masks and the vaccine. He was faster than most governors, but not exactly clean on this issue.

Here he is SUPER stoked to JAB this World War II Veteran with the Pfizer Shot.

He died shortly after.
foxnews.com/health/world-w…
Point being, politics are politics, and that's the nature of the game. But why are these angles not working for DeSantis AND, moreover, why are they dug in like ticks pretending nothing is wrong?

They attack everyone, and conduct ZERO introspection. It's rather pathetic.
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
May 13
Astonishing how few pollsters and pundits are explaining to people the significance of a candidate being at or above 50%.

Yes, even this "early in the process".

We spent a lot of time on it on the show today, i.e. Historical & Polling Stats 101.

Omission is misleading people.
Yes, even this early in the process, at this point:

No candidate has lost the nomination with 60+ endorsements from NTL and Gov elected offices, in the modern era.

No candidate has lost the nomination polling at or above 50%, in the modern era. peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3986033/w…
For the lazy who reply to tweets without having the intellect or attention span to read the article outlining an argument in great detail, let's walk you through what you missed.

1. This is not 2016. The NeverTrump/Anti-Trump vote has never been a "majority". Meaning, the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 7 tweets
Rich Baris
Apr 13
Ron DeSantis, who would have lost in 2018 if not for the president, had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Vote for whom you want, folks. Seriously. But I absolutely can’t tolerate bullshit.

Trump’s policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, coupled with his outreach, bonus… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The “Old Southern White Democrat” registration shift from DEM to REP was over before Barack Obama left office.

State-to-state migration, specifically from NE USA and California, sent Florida a ton of REP voters who settled in the Tampa Area, and South.

During his… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Those of you who have watched Inside The Numbers since before 2020 know full well what I am talking about and know this is a bullshit talking point.

Lastly, gubernatorial elections are the least predictive indicator for future presidential performance.

Everyone serious knows… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 28
Exactly right. This is a mental health issue and it's been known for decades how media play a contagion role. It used to be referred to as the "Columbine Effect". Sadly, the media-inspired events to follow are almost always more deadly.

They hate the Second Amendment and simply… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This might come as a surprise now, but @MotherJones did fabulous work covering the Columbine Effect, specifically @markfollman and @kbeccaandrews.

Absolutely fantastic work.
motherjones.com/politics/2015/…
Follman also has done great work on "How the Media Inspires Mass Shooters".

But unfortunately, as an industry, media care more about the anti-Second Amendment agenda than their own role in inspiring the mentally unstable to commit these acts. motherjones.com/politics/2015/…
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 28
Here's the @nypost doing an expose on how badly we polled in 2020. In the next thread, I'll include the link for another review via The Epoch Times re: 2016, who hired us to give them a Biden +4 even though we're garbage. nypost.com/article/the-re…
And here it is. It hurts to share this review of our 2016 record. Honestly, I cannot believe they hired us to do their national polling, which was final Biden +4, for 2020.

It was a miracle.
theepochtimes.com/young-polling-…
Wait, folks, wait... It's not fair to leave out that we also had a final poll for the Georgia runoff. Consider, it was December 11, 2020, so sorry, but it was the best we could do.

Here's what we got...

Ossoff: +2
Warnock: +5
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 6 tweets
Rich Baris
Mar 21
Two Myths of Empire for Senator Cornyn in a single day!

@MZHemingway is right. You really need to read a few books. For starters, Chamberlain caved when Germany had the potential to make a run at hegemony.

Russia has no such advantage in either latent or military power.
Here is the first Myth of Empire Cornyn invoked earlier today. It's of course the same myth used to muster support for the Iraq Invasion, arguably the biggest foreign policy blunder in U.S. history.

We got Domino Theory and Offensive Advantage in one day!… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
For those who aren't familiar with Snyder and have no idea what the Hell I'm talking about, he identifies recurrent "myths of empire" that lead to overextension, and ultimately, demise.

By the way, myth-believing societies, which we are in the U.S., are dangerous and reckless.
Read 5 tweets

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