In the next bull many things will change from tech, political, and user experience point of view
๐ฎHere're speculations from a #builder perspective
- Many more chains (L1/L2) will be "go-to" chains
- Devs'll have hard time serving users
- Market'll get fragmented
๐งต๐ชก A thread
2/ Back in 2017 bull run, everything was either:
- Launching on ETH or
- Launching completely new chains
Smart contracts were nascent that every idea was a fluff. Promises were made but not much materialized. ๐ซ
2/ Fast forward to 2021 bull run, things had progressed a lot in a positive way:
- EVM = a clear winner with billions of dollars secured
- DeFi started to shine, yields were real. Despite market being inflated, economic activities pushed toolings to be substantially more mature
3/ Coming into 2022 it was quite evident that no chains can easily break @ethereum moat.
The level of mind shares were unreal. Now most chains that's still alive are those that synergized well with $ETH like @0xPolygon@optimismFND@arbitrum
4/ Then 2023 is when A LOT of builders will fade away. Some will run out of funding due to bear market and the lack of funding. It's necessary capitulation for the industry to move forward.
This time is where the best infrastructure tools get build.
Here's why ๐
5/ It doesn't make sense to build great infra in the bull.
๐ฆWhen you're in bull, attentions go toward high-APY-next-guzzilian-dollar token.
๐ทโโ๏ธOften times great infra projects are built to last, not sexy. Only handful of builders stay true to their missions and keep going at it
Both are building for 10-20 year roadmap on enabling better DevUX for blockchain.
Here's how we see the short- and long- term future of the space.
7/ In short term, my best guess would be that 2024-2025 we'll be back to another bull run. This time is also different.
Since @ethereum was a clear winner in building scalable chain with all major protocol working there, it'll naturally grow to be prohibitively expensive, again.
8/ That doesn't mean it'll lose market leadership status though. On the contrary, $ETH would be a solid base layer for L2s and other scalability solutions.
That's where the nightmare for devs starts to begin.
9/ You see, with faster and more numerous blockchains coming into play, retails (and some degen institutions) will split their attentions toward 5-10 different chains. They'll be comfortable putting in $$$.
All of them will have legitimacies no less than BSC back in 2021.
10/ Many projects will be deploying on as many chains as possible to capture user's demands.
Projects with many users will expand their moat and protect their marketshare by being EVERYWHERE. ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
11/ Before this, maintaining dApps has never been a simple task.
๐คฏ It's about to be 10x more difficult in upcoming bull runs.
If I'm a project's dev team I'd be finding ways to optimize for the workflow that'd allow the team to ship things fast, and scale well across chains.
12/ Winning teams have to:
- ๐โโ๏ธ Generate a moat fast enough
- ๐จโ๐ฉโ๐งโ๐ฆ Scale the moat across chains
- ๐ Maintain absolute security
- ๐ฃ And remain quick on their feet to adapt to the ever-changing trends
That's a lot of work on any dev teams
13/ Best minds in the space are innovating solutions to tackle these problems - be it for their own teams, or as solution for others to scale.
Only the dev teams that best utilize the most cost-effective (time- and talent-wise, money is abundant) can capture the next bull run ๐ฏ
15/ โ๏ธ Instead of building fault-tolerant price feeds/oracle themselves, it's much more effective to rely on @BandProtocol for the decentralized oracle.
๐ It's been refined for the past 4-5 years, and has gotten quite affordable thanks to our amazing team @siree_fon@pzshine.
16/ โ๏ธ And instead of having your team build their own backend for aggregated smart contract data or custom blockchain ETL, devs can spend 10x less time that exact same thing with @blockpipe
1/12 A perk of being in the space for 8+ years (since 2013, buying my first ever $BTC on BTCe) is that I'm always bullish on crypto as a technology, even through extreme ups and downs.
And I always keep a long-term view of crypto I think will happen.
Here's my thesis, a ๐งต๐ชก:
2/12 Market comes and goes in cycles.
This is somewhat clichรฉ and something people have talked about a LOT, especially during a bear market. It's the ultimate copium used by most crypto veterans when things go south.
Guess what, it's 100% true. โ
3/12 For the change as big as crypto to be built and accepted, it'd take years.
Like how internet emerged from super niche group of engineers and scientists, crypto has to fight its way through in similar manner.