Gaurav Sabnis Profile picture
May 20 17 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Occam's razor.

There's no way babus who cleared UPSC didn't think of this very basic question themselves before issuing this order.

The confusion is by design. To keep everyone occupied in these worries instead of real issues.

Modi govt has weaponized ambiguity in compliance.
It's been nine years of this and a full year remains.

They issue some order that shakes up the equilibrium and puts the populace at work with compliance. That drags on in chaos cos there's too much ambiguity. A dozen or more clarifications. More confusion.

Next election comes.
This is something I read about in a book on late 20th century Latin American politics, which was full of authoritarians who took over in the name of "development" and/or national security.

"Keep your population standing in lines for some reason and rule forever."
The reason 21st century Latin America is mostly full of democracies is that the 20th century "banana Republic" phase was almost entirely the creation of the CIA & KGB.
The basic cultural DNA of Latin America is very democratic.

Red tape was central to the authoritarian phase.
Be it right wingers in Chile or left wingers in Mexico or even reactionary clueless Chavez-Maduro types, a tool used by authoritarians in those very historically bureaucratic societies, was keeping their populations busy in compliance. Keep them on their toes, scared.
A few years ago, I took an undergrad class to Chile. Some students were libertarian types who loved Milton Friedman so had somewhat mixed views about Pinochet. That they had only read on American blogs and such. The kindest view of Pinochet possible.
The view being that of course violent crackdowns and executions and political prisoners are wrong, but didn't he usher in economic growth that eventually made Chile wealthy? That's the view US libertarians, AEI, Heritage, Breitbart etc will sell you.

Actual Chileans told em, nah
Chilean experts in Santiago told them that the economic growth in Pinochet years was all natural resources based and would have happened no matter who ruled. Those years were not nice to live in. Students asked

"So how did he rule almost 20 years?"

"He made us stand in lines!"
Most Chileans remember spending a lot of time in lines in the 70s & 80s for some compliance reason or another, often to even hold on to your own home. The "ease of doing business" only existed for pals of Pinochet. The common small business was weighed down by red tape.
It eventually took the systemic rot and discontent over 15 years to reach even the Chilean elites, the wealthy, the ones looking to be the Switzerland of South America.

That the promised "development" had been restricted to just the top & the circle was shrinking.
I'm old enough to remember 80s India and also Manmohan India in great detail.

Manmohan India is when India almost never stood in pointless lines.

80s India often stood in pointless lines.

Modi India has to always keep standing in pointless lines. #NewIndia
Modern India and 20th century Latin America are similar in the sense that there is a baseline respect for government and authority. From 1800s, our ancestors grew up in colonial & then post colonial modern states. So a basic level of obedience is baked in.
If the gormint says stand in line, Latinos and desis will, more often than not, stand in line.

Authoritarians exploited this cultural obedience in 20th century Latin America.

And Modi is doing it to India as we speak. Keep us busy complying, obeying, standing in lines.
The happy lesson from Latin America is that there is an expiry date to these tactics.

Eventually the red tape starts affecting economic growth. The rich start feeling the squeeze. And there's a shakeup and return to a democratic republic for all, not just a few.
An Ecuadorian friend recently said "every Latin American country is so multi colored mixed and with revolutionary history that only democratic socialist can work here. We flirt with dictators once in a while, but a place this diverse has to gravitate to lefty democracy."
I daresay India is also extremely multi colored and with revolutionary history, so I hope that just like our Latino cousins faraway, we too eventually gravitate towards a lefty democracy, cos yeah, no way can Hindu Rashtra work without historic bloodshed.

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More from @gauravsabnis

May 20
Let me start by saying that this situation is so unprecedented that no one really knows what will happen. And anyone who says they know is just selling you something.

Here are the political, constitutional, and business realities as I see them.

There's the US constitution. Image
The 14th amendment of the constitution literally says, the public debt of the US shall not be questioned.
Also, nowhere in the constitution is Congress given the explicit power over the debt the way it has been over spending.

Why Dem senators say, just invoke that!
Because remember, this is a made up crisis, entirely made up by the Republicans.
They raised the debt ceiling AND spending 3 times under Trump. They keep growing the Pentagon budget.

Biden can and should just say, 14A, I raise the debt ceiling to uphold my oath, over to SCOTUS.
Read 18 tweets
May 20
Also don't ignore the sleazy "Sindhu Saraswati Sabhyata" phrasing.

Indus valley civilization is a legit historic civilization with ever growing archaeological evidence.

"Saraswati" the river as well as supposed civilization is sanghi imagination + myth+ propaganda.
This Sindhu-Saraswati obfuscation was once a sanghi concoction on the fringes of the Internet, even in Vajpayee and Advani years.

Modi has given it govt sanction. Cos the hastily concocted reactionary myth is central to the Hindu Rashtra ideology.

Aap chronology samjhiye.
The ideological progenitor of brahminical sanghism was B.G. Tilak who actually had a pretty reasonable theory of the Vedas being written in the Arctics!
Back in the day, caste Hindus were cool with the Aryan immigration from Caucasus to India theory. Made us quasi white!
Read 10 tweets
May 20
Oh, the BJP palace intrigue will start soon too. We've seen Modi and Shah use press based intrigue to get rid of the old guard a decade plus ago. A bunch of mini-me's like Bisht & Fadvya will start doing the same. Sanghism is a brahminical order after all.
Within sanghi circles, succession talk has already started, with Modi in his 70s and Shah looking like he's in his 70s and Jay Shah having the personality of an aluminum bowl.

And of course the contenders are almost exclusively brahmin.
Read 4 tweets
May 19
In #Galapagos, you experience surreal things like a penguin at equatorial mangroves just swimming by your boat.

These mangroves were so strangely low on biodiversity cos of their young age & remote location. Almost like a Dubai recreation of mangroves lol.
No no, they were not artificially created.

But they are very young and out in the ocean, and so if you've been to continental mangroves like Sunderbans or Everglades, they *feel* a bit artificial.

And that's more evidence for evolution.

So compared to the mangroves in Florida or Trinidad that I've visited, I noticed that the Galapagos mangroves had way fewer creatures & species. No tree snakes or water snakes. Very few bugs. The water was a lot clearer, not muddy. All explained by geology & biology.
Read 9 tweets
May 18
I'd wondered never looked up why Hawaii's volcanoes (1) don't have pretty cones like Mt Fuji (2).

Asked guide at Galapagos volcanoes (3) why they are flattish but Ecuador mainland Cotopaxi (4) is conical.

"Excellent question!" he said making this prof beam with joy! 😁 ImageImageImageImage
Fuji, Cotopaxi, are continental volcanoes. Magma has to cross the entire thickness of the continental crust to erupt. Usually through just one weakness or fissure, where the pressure is concentrated. This means the magma is thickish, it oozes slower, like a chocolate fountain.
The high viscosity, single narrow fissure, and the slower rate of flow post eruption makes gravity slowly form that conical shape.

But Hawaii & Galapagos Islands are oceanic volcanoes. Where the crust under the pacific is weak. Many weak spots, not just one.
Read 8 tweets
May 18
Oh wow, can't wait! Do read the book too.
Yes, but in a way than the first wave oppression.

Like the Tulsa attacks showed that even becoming educated & rich didn't stop black people from being attacked & killed.

Osage showed the same for American first nations.

Plus birth of FBI!

Reading this book, you have to keep reminding yourself, it's all true, not a Tarantino fiction.

TLDR: After oil was discovered in Texas-Oklahoma, the Osage Nation fought in court and won rights to drill the oil and make money themselves. White people said nah, & murders start. Image
Read 10 tweets

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