there's a threshold that's 0.67 SDs (10 points) above the higher-performing of two groups with equal variances who are separated by 0.97 d.
With simulated group sizes of one million persons each, the mean differences decline, and the SDs do too. The new gap is 0.412 d.
But we know that the 0.97 d gap is an underestimate due to range restriction.
Using MBE scores, it looks like the unrestricted gap should be more like 1.22 d. That leaves us with a 0.537 d gap above the threshold.
Do we have subsequent performance measures?
Yes! We have three:
- Complaints made against attorneys
- Probations
- Disbarments
For men, the gaps, in order, are 0.576, 0.513, and 0.564 d. For women, the gaps are 0.576, 0.286, and 0.286 d.
Men fit expectations and women apparently needed less discipline.
These gaps probably replicate nationally.
For example, here are Texas pass rates from 2004 - a 0.961 d Black-White first-pass gap. The 2006 update to these figures raised the gap to 0.969 d.
Those figures are basically in line with LSAC's national study of Bar exam pass rates.
And those are basically in line with New York's gaps.
And this should probably be expected, since tests measure the same things.
Since all of the people included in these statistics went to ABA-accredited schools, they all had the opportunity to learn what was required to perform well on these tests.
But just like the Step examinations for medical doctors, the gaps on the tests and in real life remain.
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At every age, the incidence of dementia is down. As a society, people are no longer suffering dementia nearly as often!
The world over, child mortality is way down. It's unusual for parents to experience the death of a child these days, where even a century ago, it was the global norm.
Each year, novel gene therapies are approved.
The number of gene therapies in the pipeline is also rapidly increasing. There is tons of progress to be made here, and the main issue is regulatory.
We have lots of low-hanging fruit in curing disease!
There's a common type of misunderstanding that sounds like this:
"If taller people tend to be more educated, and women tend to be shorter than men, how do you explain women tending to be more educated?"
The issue has to do with intercepts. Consider this plot:
You can see that, among Whites, women tend to be shorter than men, and they tend to have lower earnings.
But at the same time, to similar degrees in both sexes, taller people tend to have higher earnings.
Perplexed? You shouldn't be.
The fact is that there's more to this that differentiates men and women than height, so the intercept for women is shifted down, even though the slopes of the height * income relationship are fairly comparable.
Debate about the value of essays in college admissions missed a key point:
Essays are biased, so should not be used.
Here's an example: High-income people know 'what to write' to look good to raters, so they outperform on essays relative to their other qualifications.
This shows up by race, too, and that's why admissions departments use essays to infer race for the express purpose of discriminating.
Write that you're Black; that you grew up as a poor immigrant; that you're gay or a cripple.
The reason essays do not have a role to play in the admissions process is because they're biased. It's plain, it's simple, it doesn't need to be discussed any further.
And here's some good policy: Use tools that are not biased or lose public funding.
Happy Autism Awareness Day! I think too many people are 'aware' of autism.
Have you ever met someone who claims to be autistic, but they've never been diagnosed?
Self-reported autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is practically uncorrelated with real, clinician-diagnosed autism🧵
Sort self-reporters into those with high and low ASD scores, and you get the bars on the left. The "high-trait" self-reporters look like people with diagnosed autism (ASD column).
But they're more socially anxious (middle) and avoidant (right).
So far, the means of distinguishing diagnosed from self-reported autistics have been crude.
To get a more nuanced understanding of their differences, we have to look at behavior.
For that, we'll start with the social control task.