Crémieux Profile picture
May 21, 2023 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Changes to the Bar exam so far don't seem to have made a dent in the race differences in performance on it.

How large are these differences? In the latest year, 2022, the Black-White gap in California Bar pass rates was 0.97 SDs.

And this matters because we expect a threshold Image
to practice (the Bar exam) to reduce subsequent performance gaps.

But how much should those gaps be reduced?

Let's simulate to find out!

@_twolfram recently provided an estimate for British lawyers' IQs of 110.31: sciencedirect.com/science/articl….

Let's go ahead and assume
there's a threshold that's 0.67 SDs (10 points) above the higher-performing of two groups with equal variances who are separated by 0.97 d.

With simulated group sizes of one million persons each, the mean differences decline, and the SDs do too. The new gap is 0.412 d. Image
But we know that the 0.97 d gap is an underestimate due to range restriction.

Using MBE scores, it looks like the unrestricted gap should be more like 1.22 d. That leaves us with a 0.537 d gap above the threshold.

Do we have subsequent performance measures?

Yes! We have three:
- Complaints made against attorneys
- Probations
- Disbarments

For men, the gaps, in order, are 0.576, 0.513, and 0.564 d. For women, the gaps are 0.576, 0.286, and 0.286 d.

Men fit expectations and women apparently needed less discipline. Source: https://board.calba...
These gaps probably replicate nationally.

For example, here are Texas pass rates from 2004 - a 0.961 d Black-White first-pass gap. The 2006 update to these figures raised the gap to 0.969 d. Source: https://ble.texas.g...Image
Those figures are basically in line with LSAC's national study of Bar exam pass rates. Image
And those are basically in line with New York's gaps. Image
And this should probably be expected, since tests measure the same things. Image
Since all of the people included in these statistics went to ABA-accredited schools, they all had the opportunity to learn what was required to perform well on these tests.

But just like the Step examinations for medical doctors, the gaps on the tests and in real life remain.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Crémieux

Crémieux Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @cremieuxrecueil

Apr 2
A new meta-analysis and systematic review on the effects of social media abstinence interventions on mental health has been published.

First result: No effect on positive affect: Image
Second result: No effect on negative affect. Image
Third result: No effect on life satisfaction in general. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 2
Happy Autism Awareness Day! I think too many people are 'aware' of autism.

Have you ever met someone who claims to be autistic, but they've never been diagnosed?

Self-reported autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is practically uncorrelated with real, clinician-diagnosed autism🧵 Image
Sort self-reporters into those with high and low ASD scores, and you get the bars on the left. The "high-trait" self-reporters look like people with diagnosed autism (ASD column).

But they're more socially anxious (middle) and avoidant (right). Image
So far, the means of distinguishing diagnosed from self-reported autistics have been crude.

To get a more nuanced understanding of their differences, we have to look at behavior.

For that, we'll start with the social control task.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 1
Ending Credentialism could mark the beginning of an era of American rebirth, with benefits for everyone🧵

For starters, it could mean young people get to enjoy more of their adult lives being adults: Image
Ending credentialism means affirmative action will become less harmful, and you can be more confident that your doctor is qualified rather than someone who replaced a qualified person in the pipeline. Image
Without credentialism, women's ability to select on educational credentials will be impaired, and they'll have to make better judgments.

Men aiming to leverage credentialism in the dating market in their favor will lose that edge, too. But that's good, because it's a lousy edge. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 31
I just updated one of my articles a second time.

It has to do with Justice Jackson's comments that when Black newborns are delivered by Black doctors, they're much more likely to survive, justifying racially discriminatory admissions.

We now know the study contained fraud🧵 Image
The original article claimed that, when Black babies are attended to by Black physicians, their infant mortality rates decline substantially relative to when they have a White physician.

Justice Jackson cited this in the Supreme Court, even though it was implausible. Image
A few months back, we learned that the original finding was driven by the authors failing to include a required control variable.

Not only that, but they seemingly knew they this variable was important.

Read 13 tweets
Mar 30
Thread of natural sources of different medications.

We can thank the Gila Monster for modern GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic Image
Image
Ziconotide is a powerful non-opioid painkiller used by people who have severe chronic pain that's resistant to other forms of treatment.

It was discovered in the venom of killer Cone Snails. Image
Image
Trabectedin is a chemotherapy drug that was isolated from an extract of sea squirts. Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
Mar 30
In case it's unclear, I think the mechanism here is likely to be preferentially enlarging productive firms.

In more competitive economies, more productive firms have larger market shares🧵

America is a stand-out example of this: Image
Prior to the fall of the Iron Curtain, markets in Eastern Europe were remarkably inefficient.

After its fall, market reforms occurred, and after they took place, they went from less efficient firms capturing larger market shares to the opposite: more efficient firms dominated! Image
The thesis is this:

America's stock markets are set up in a way that, incidentally, promotes more efficient firms capturing larger market shares.

There's not yet enough data to know if this is true, but time will tell if this possibility holds up.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(