Crémieux Profile picture
May 21, 2023 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Changes to the Bar exam so far don't seem to have made a dent in the race differences in performance on it.

How large are these differences? In the latest year, 2022, the Black-White gap in California Bar pass rates was 0.97 SDs.

And this matters because we expect a threshold Image
to practice (the Bar exam) to reduce subsequent performance gaps.

But how much should those gaps be reduced?

Let's simulate to find out!

@_twolfram recently provided an estimate for British lawyers' IQs of 110.31: sciencedirect.com/science/articl….

Let's go ahead and assume
there's a threshold that's 0.67 SDs (10 points) above the higher-performing of two groups with equal variances who are separated by 0.97 d.

With simulated group sizes of one million persons each, the mean differences decline, and the SDs do too. The new gap is 0.412 d. Image
But we know that the 0.97 d gap is an underestimate due to range restriction.

Using MBE scores, it looks like the unrestricted gap should be more like 1.22 d. That leaves us with a 0.537 d gap above the threshold.

Do we have subsequent performance measures?

Yes! We have three:
- Complaints made against attorneys
- Probations
- Disbarments

For men, the gaps, in order, are 0.576, 0.513, and 0.564 d. For women, the gaps are 0.576, 0.286, and 0.286 d.

Men fit expectations and women apparently needed less discipline. Source: https://board.calba...
These gaps probably replicate nationally.

For example, here are Texas pass rates from 2004 - a 0.961 d Black-White first-pass gap. The 2006 update to these figures raised the gap to 0.969 d. Source: https://ble.texas.g...Image
Those figures are basically in line with LSAC's national study of Bar exam pass rates. Image
And those are basically in line with New York's gaps. Image
And this should probably be expected, since tests measure the same things. Image
Since all of the people included in these statistics went to ABA-accredited schools, they all had the opportunity to learn what was required to perform well on these tests.

But just like the Step examinations for medical doctors, the gaps on the tests and in real life remain.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Mar 31
I just updated one of my articles a second time.

It has to do with Justice Jackson's comments that when Black newborns are delivered by Black doctors, they're much more likely to survive, justifying racially discriminatory admissions.

We now know the study contained fraud🧵 Image
The original article claimed that, when Black babies are attended to by Black physicians, their infant mortality rates decline substantially relative to when they have a White physician.

Justice Jackson cited this in the Supreme Court, even though it was implausible. Image
A few months back, we learned that the original finding was driven by the authors failing to include a required control variable.

Not only that, but they seemingly knew they this variable was important.

Read 13 tweets
Mar 30
Thread of natural sources of different medications.

We can thank the Gila Monster for modern GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic Image
Image
Ziconotide is a powerful non-opioid painkiller used by people who have severe chronic pain that's resistant to other forms of treatment.

It was discovered in the venom of killer Cone Snails. Image
Image
Trabectedin is a chemotherapy drug that was isolated from an extract of sea squirts. Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
Mar 30
In case it's unclear, I think the mechanism here is likely to be preferentially enlarging productive firms.

In more competitive economies, more productive firms have larger market shares🧵

America is a stand-out example of this: Image
Prior to the fall of the Iron Curtain, markets in Eastern Europe were remarkably inefficient.

After its fall, market reforms occurred, and after they took place, they went from less efficient firms capturing larger market shares to the opposite: more efficient firms dominated! Image
The thesis is this:

America's stock markets are set up in a way that, incidentally, promotes more efficient firms capturing larger market shares.

There's not yet enough data to know if this is true, but time will tell if this possibility holds up.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
WHAT IF

@nyuniversity didn't engage in blatant racial discrimination when they were selecting the Class of 2028? The result would be

- Much higher average SAT scores
- Minimal racial differences
- Very different student demographics Image
Instead, the NYU we get is far more "diverse" than it has any right to be, because the admissions officers had their fingers on the scale.

We know what unbiased admissions would look like, and it's not this.

They're going to fall back on excuses, but nothing will work.
Their defenders might argue Asians do fewer or worse extracurriculars. The opposite is true.

Their defenders may argue Asians have worse personalities. They don't gather that data and it would be biased. Next?

They could argue Asians do less in athletics. OK, but small effect.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 22
Even when men and women are matched for the amount of muscle they have, men tend to be far stronger.

The case against sex-segregating sporting is the case for women only making appearances in sports with relatively equal performance, like archery. Image
This is true for the lower body too. Image
Elite female athletes even tend to be weaker than typical men.

The case against sex-segregated sporting is very clearly the case for eliminating women's participation in sport. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 22
We now know NYU violated the law by engaging in racial discrimination in their latest admissions cohort.

They should be punished severely.

In the meantime, NYU should also try to make amends by contacting all overlooked students and sending them admissions offers right now.Image
Image
Image
This data comes from today's hack of NYU's admissions department and website.

You can see an archive of what their website looked like an hour ago here: web.archive.org/web/2025032213…
Now, as a reminder, Trump has stated that his preferred punishment for universities that continue to engage in illegal racial discrimination is...

Confiscating their endowments, taking away their accreditation, and imposing severe damages on those responsible.

Godspeed. Image
Read 4 tweets

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