there's a threshold that's 0.67 SDs (10 points) above the higher-performing of two groups with equal variances who are separated by 0.97 d.
With simulated group sizes of one million persons each, the mean differences decline, and the SDs do too. The new gap is 0.412 d.
But we know that the 0.97 d gap is an underestimate due to range restriction.
Using MBE scores, it looks like the unrestricted gap should be more like 1.22 d. That leaves us with a 0.537 d gap above the threshold.
Do we have subsequent performance measures?
Yes! We have three:
- Complaints made against attorneys
- Probations
- Disbarments
For men, the gaps, in order, are 0.576, 0.513, and 0.564 d. For women, the gaps are 0.576, 0.286, and 0.286 d.
Men fit expectations and women apparently needed less discipline.
These gaps probably replicate nationally.
For example, here are Texas pass rates from 2004 - a 0.961 d Black-White first-pass gap. The 2006 update to these figures raised the gap to 0.969 d.
Those figures are basically in line with LSAC's national study of Bar exam pass rates.
And those are basically in line with New York's gaps.
And this should probably be expected, since tests measure the same things.
Since all of the people included in these statistics went to ABA-accredited schools, they all had the opportunity to learn what was required to perform well on these tests.
But just like the Step examinations for medical doctors, the gaps on the tests and in real life remain.
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It has to do with Justice Jackson's comments that when Black newborns are delivered by Black doctors, they're much more likely to survive, justifying racially discriminatory admissions.
We now know the study contained fraud🧵
The original article claimed that, when Black babies are attended to by Black physicians, their infant mortality rates decline substantially relative to when they have a White physician.
Justice Jackson cited this in the Supreme Court, even though it was implausible.
A few months back, we learned that the original finding was driven by the authors failing to include a required control variable.
Not only that, but they seemingly knew they this variable was important.
Prior to the fall of the Iron Curtain, markets in Eastern Europe were remarkably inefficient.
After its fall, market reforms occurred, and after they took place, they went from less efficient firms capturing larger market shares to the opposite: more efficient firms dominated!
The thesis is this:
America's stock markets are set up in a way that, incidentally, promotes more efficient firms capturing larger market shares.
There's not yet enough data to know if this is true, but time will tell if this possibility holds up.