Thread by @Rsherlock

1/ I attended Hezbollah's military exercise at one of its bases in southern #Lebanon. It was definitely one of the more bizarre press trips by the group. It felt like all the press corps (local and foreign) were invited. Eleven buses took us south from Beirut.

2/We arrived at a military base for the group not far from the Israeli border. In case you should forget who backs Hezbollah, giant portraits of Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader and Ayatollah Khomeini were set up at either side of the entrance.

3/ Hezbollah is both an Iranian supported and influenced group and a Lebanese entity, with a powerful role in Lebanon's domestic politics. The tensions between these two position may be one of the reasons behind the military exercise they laid on today.

4/ In its biggest public show of force in at least a decade, inside the base not far from the Israeli border the group simulated attacks on an Israeli settlement using snipers, artillery, rocket propelled grenades and drones.

5/ They also karate-chopped terracotta tiles, engaged in carefully choreographed hand to hand combat, and performed stunts- while armed - on dirt bikes. All in front of us, the audience.

In recent years Hezbollah has been very risk averse when it comes to attacks on Israel from Lebanon. It hasn't wanted to invite a war with Israel that would devastate the country. So this is one way of showing force and maintaining its anti-Israeli credentials with less risk.

7/ Could they be doing this to appease Iran? A way of showing Tehran it is still supports the "resistance" without escalating - already high - tensions with Israel? (See thread by @RichardJSpencer)

8/ The group might also have to reinforce its public show of defiance against Israel as part of its recently tightened alliance with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian groups. (Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh was in Beirut to meet Nasrallah last month.)

9/ And as veteran Hezbollah expert Nick Blanford told me this is also to send a message to Lebanese. For it's supporters; that Hezbollah is strong (has gained a lot of experience in Syrian war) and the same to its Lebanese critics.

10/ For all the rhetoric of the military exercise (at one point fighters smashed through a wall made to represent the one that divides Lebanon and Israel) -- the speeches emphasised "deterrence" and suggested that as regards Israel, Hezbollah now is not in the market for a war.

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