Thread by @ncdave4life

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 3°C is the IPCC's estimate for ECS, but that's just one measure of climate sensitivity, and it's from an organization with severe credibility problems. Estimates of ECS based on real world measurements are generally lower, and TCR is only about 2/3 of ECS.

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1660390017187938305

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 We've already had 58.5% of the forcing (warming effect) we'd get from a full doubling of CO2, plus about half that much again from other GHGs. So the warming we've gotten should be about 88% of a doubling.

Best estimate of that is about 1.2°C.

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 Assuming it's ALL human-caused (which is unlikely):

1.2 / 88% = 1.36°C.

That's probably about halfway between TCR & ECS.

I hope it is obvious why so many scientists think it is obvious that the IPCC's climate sensitivity estimates are far too high!

sealevel.info/radiative_imba…

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert Bob D @bobathon, given that arithmetic, do you think the IPCC's 3°C estimate for ECS is defensible?

Even Berkeley Earth's data clearly indicates that ECS must be <2°C and TCR <1.5°C.

BTW, for anyone for whom those terms are unfamiliar, I have a glossary:
sealevel.info/glossary.html

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @elonmusk & @lindayacc, PLEASE end Twitter's SHADOWBANNING of replies — even replies to one's own tweets (tweetstorms). What good is a tweetstorm if you can't find the 2nd tweet while viewing the 1st?

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1591186871400660995

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