Late Friday/this Monday have been v interesting as regards the quiet, background briefs that have been going the rounds about the Defence Command White Paper, especially what will happen to the Army.
Top Line: the White Paper will say previous version was absolutely fine...
...all assumptions deductions totally right, Ukraine has changed nothing, because 2021 version had foreseen it!
However, Army White Paper Top Line: the briefings say a cut to 60,000.
Yes, the "line to take" is 60,000 - the previous total talked up was 72,000...
...so going from current 80k-ish, 60k would be nearly a 30% cut.
However... I can't remember whether it was "Yes Minister" or "Yes Prime Minister", but one of these had the Whitehall strategy that you leak some dire cut, but when the actual announcement comes, it isn't as bad.
Soooo....While the talk is for a cut of over 20,000 Army troops to 60k, I'm hearing a secondary line which is that the "actual" cut will "only" be to 65,000, so not that bad!
Well, a 20% cut is still pretty heavy - it'd almost look like a punishment beating.
And when other equivalent Western European armies such as France are actively recruiting to grow their forces, a UK cut would look strange. And let's not talk about what the Nordic/Baltic States are doing with their armies' manpower...
Even if the eventual cuts are to "only" 68,000, it'll still be a pretty serious hit to the British Army. And one key issue: if the cut is this heavy, what does this do to what "The Country" expects from the Army?
It's pretty obvious that you cannot expect the same from a 64,000 Army as you do from an 82,000 one. And with all the talk of expanding the Royal Artillery, likely at the expense of the infantry and Royal Armoured Corps, how does this work with a 15-20,000 personnel cut?
One massive problem for @BritishArmy: it has cut itself off from the wider population, so it can be cut and reduced with very little political downside. When was the last time(s) that the Army actively invited a broad media pool to come and see things?
The Army's "message" has been lacking as the Service doesn't know how to communicate, though it parrots about "information manoeuvre". Well, even if such exists (it doesn't), Andover has been comprehensively out-manoeuvred in the White Paper game, and has seemingly lost, badly.
Time will tell, but there is significant preparation of the ground for serious cuts to the Army. I'm not convinced that there will not be some cuts to the other two Services as well - they will just seem lesser ones compared to what could look like a bloodbath for The Khaki.
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@benmoores2@BritishArmy@DefenceHQ@DefenceU
Now, Ukraine will be thankful for pretty much anything that they get. But recent statements suggest that they want 2-300 MBTs, 600+ MICVs, 00s of arty. So, let's be honest, what is the use of "up to 10 CR2"?
It's not even a squadron in NATO parlance - it's not a coherent unit, it's just a handful of tanks. Now, it might be that 10 is all that can be brought up, which the UK can then give to Ukraine without denuding the Army of armour...
A thread about an intriguing story that came via Reuters on 3 January about leadership of the NATO Very high-readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). The core (original) story? Germany, the current VJTF leader, was being asked to extend this role into 2024... reuters.com/world/europe/g…
So what? Well, in theory, the UK takes over the role as of 1 January 2024. Berlin being asked to extend by 3-4mths, minimum, suggests that the British Army is finding itself in a position where, for whatever reasons, it cannot generate a formed Bgde HQ...
Overall, a very interesting listen, with some very good points made, especially such things as the fact that the UK is a maritime, not a continental power, and that the Army should not, and never has aimed to be the largest.
But there are a few things I'd like to pick up on...
"£30bn cut from the Army since 2015": REALLY? CGS needs to show workings on this... Does this include, say, the fact that there are fewer troops, so the pay bill has fallen? As will be seen later, if there is a claim of £30bn cut from kit, this is not supportable...
OK, off the back of 2-days of work on anti-ship missiles, I have a question to which I look to naval-minded Twitteratti...
In land ops, you have the concept of K-kills and M (mobility) kills, possibly interchangeable with suppression.
Depending on the circumstances, either can be entirely acceptable - K-kill might be seen as the acme, but just depends.
When it comes to Anti-ship operations, is there the same concept? OK, you might want to see the enemy ship just blow up, but might an M-kill be "good enough"?
By M-kill, I mean a hit(s) that doesn't blow a ship up, doesn't immobilise it so it just floats, helplessly, but causes it to stop fighting actively, as damage control takes precedence, or that it has to depart the scene of action to deal with its damage.
Now, most will suppose that the UK MoD's National Shipbuilding Strategy is "just" about warships and auxiliaries. But eh March 2022 Refresh talked about a "30yr Cross-Govt Shipbuilding Pipeline", so not just MoD... nlb.org.uk/news/northern-…
And here's a screen grab from the NSS Refresh, page 21, which puts the Northern Lighthouse Board ships as part of the Cross-Govt Shipbuilding Pipeline. And yet the Department for Transport has placed the contract overseas... And who is the Shipbuilding Tsar? None other than...
OK, back onto one of my hobby horses: Foreign Exchange rates, and the impact for UK defence. The chart here is what has happened to the £/$ rate over the past year: basically a 20% decline. So what? Well, there is a serious UK MoD exposure to FOREX fluctuations...
This chart shows what % of the EPP is spent on US OTS-supplied equipment. It takes the in-year spends on programmes such as F-35, E-7, AH-64E etc, and calculates this against the brute EPP figure. It excludes deterrent costs, which are opaque - but are on top of these.
Basically, you see a 20% fall in the £ v $, you WILL have to spend more on your $-denominated programmes. "Oh, but the MoD hedges its FOREX position!" A) look back to see what people were forecasting re £:$ a year ago: no-one was punting on £1:$1.11 (and it might yet go lower)