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Holy, Cr*p...
thetimes.com/uk/defence/art… @larisamlbrown @SheridanDani @TomCotterillMoL @thepagey @MtarfaL @TotherChris @HamishDBG @nicholadrummond @JonHawkes275 @robfox45 @benmoores2 @BeaverWestminst @thinkdefence @AdjutantsDog @RoyalArmdCorps @DefenceHQ @DefenceHQPress @DefenceES @CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC

In and among the panic about possible US disengagement from European defence, more money for UK defence and the like, can I try to inject some reality(s)?

British Army will not be going back to 4 Armd/Mech divns; RN will not be going back to 50 escorts; RAF won't get 300 FJ... Further, my tried and tested "2 out of 3 Ain't Bad" ruler needs bringing out. This says:
1. MoD csn only "favour" 2 out of 3 Services.
2. Each Service (and the MoD) can only have 2 out of 3 of: size, range, capability.

Well, still a few states to call, but the consensus is that Trump has won. And this, as I will lay out, is the worst news to wake up to for Keir Starmer. No, not the "it'll be tough making up with Trump, tough keeping the Special Relationship going"... Rather, on this rather grey morning, Starmer is pretty much going to have to tear quite a bit of the Budget up.

Either Trump is going to tell Europe "bye, bye", in which case defence spending is going to have to rise, and rise big - so spending elsewhere will stay level or fall.

I spotted this aside in a Daily mail (@MarkNicolDM) article on the NHS and forthcoming reforms, on the back of the Lord Darzi report ().
A report about "saving the NHS", "the closest thing that the UK has to a religion", took nine weeks - read that again.. gov.uk/government/pub…
@MarkHookham @shashj @larisamlbrown @SheridanDani @Dannythefink @sylviapfeifer @edwardlucas @edwardstrngr @jeromestarkey @georgegrylls @nicholadrummond @DomNicholls @CommonsDefence @DefenceEye_news @CommonsPAC @LOS_Fisher @robfox45 @thepagey

OK, so UK will be in some form of peer shooting war within 5yrs. Bearing in mind RN ships are being tied up because of lack of crew (not just UK BTW), FF/DD generation is pretty dire, the Army cannot put a single credible armd/AI bgde into the field...
thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-str… The RAF is struggling to man the limited (and declining) number of fighters that UK has - and these are just salient points - what, in concrete terms, is @grantshapps doing, going to do to ensure that the UK Services are capable of facing up to the threats he is talking about?

Germany might *think* it can join GCAP, but...
1. There can be no entry of Germany without complete, explicit agreement of 🇮🇹🇯🇵 - UK cannot "force" this, nor can Germany.
2. What has Germany got to offer, technology-wise, which is not already covered by the 3 partners? Zip.

https://twitter.com/Kevin_T_Ryan/status/1719741660744085914

3. "But we need Germany's money!" Nope - Japan's entry solved that. And there are 2 extra partners in the wings, so Berlin's Bounty ain't what it was.
4. "But we need Germany's offtake!" Nope - US Sec AF says NGAD is economic at 200, pretty much what Tempest is looking at.

Hmmm... Have the planets just aligned in a manner that might see French aid to Ukraine go up a gear? French Defence Minister, @SebLecornu has just been in Kyiv to discuss supply of weaponry to Ukraine. He has "confirmed" that there have been talks, not just now, about supplying Mirage 2000s to Kyiv. But there have been *good reasons* why this has not happened to date: the M2000 fleet has taken the lead in Sahel operations, to free up Rafale for other missions.

OK, the Sheldon Report is fatally flawed for one simple point (actually, it is flawed from numerous points, some deliberately put in place by the @DefenceHQ): the analysis of "what went wrong" only starts in detail in 2017. The problem with this? The key problems started... Prior to the contract being awarded. An example required? Notes from 2010 say that a briefing General stating that Pizarro 2 was in service, low risk etc. So what? Well, it had actually been cancelled in Spain about a year earlier as a response to the global financial crisis...

@thinkdefence @UKDefenceJourn @harry_lye @RoyalNavy @Dominic2306 @DomNicholls @MarkNicolDM @MarkHookham @sylviapfeifer @SheridanDani @jeromestarkey @DefenceHQ @DefenceHQPress @JohnHealey_MP @rich_scott2 In the aftermath of @NavyLookout story on HMS Westminster... ...the mice are scurrying in all directions about the state of the RN escort fleet. I've now had half doz sources - all in the same capability area - coming up with the same thing in the aftermath of the de factor retirement of HMS Westminster. She's not the last to see this.

@sylviapfeifer @peggyhollinger @MarkNicolDM @jeromestarkey @shashj @nicholadrummond @CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC @JohnHealey_MP @RichardFoordLD @thinkdefence @UKDefJournal @Jack_Watling @benmoores2 @DefenceHQ A quick run through some of the Whitehall gossip about the White Paper Late Friday/this Monday have been v interesting as regards the quiet, background briefs that have been going the rounds about the Defence Command White Paper, especially what will happen to the Army.

Top Line: the White Paper will say previous version was absolutely fine...

My own take on the story about the UK "considering" (why not "do", rather than "consider"?) sending Challenger 2 MBTs to Ukraine. @nicholadrummond @TotherChris @JonHawkes275 @haynesdeborah @SkyNews @georgegrylls @LOS_Fisher @UKDefJournal @thinkdefence
news.sky.com/story/uk-consi… @benmoores2 @BritishArmy @DefenceHQ @DefenceU
Now, Ukraine will be thankful for pretty much anything that they get. But recent statements suggest that they want 2-300 MBTs, 600+ MICVs, 00s of arty. So, let's be honest, what is the use of "up to 10 CR2"?

@JohnHealey_MP @spellar @JohnnyMercerUK @ShadowDefence @RishiSunak @Jeremy_Hunt @CommonsDefence @commonslibrary @CommonsPAC @sylviapfeifer @MarkNicolDM @jeromestarkey @thinkdefence @BritishArmy @AdmTonyRadakin_ @DefenceSenseUK @ReutersAero @timhepher @NATO @nicholadrummond A thread about an intriguing story that came via Reuters on 3 January about leadership of the NATO Very high-readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). The core (original) story? Germany, the current VJTF leader, was being asked to extend this role into 2024...
reuters.com/world/europe/g…

@georgegrylls @LOS_Fisher @haynesdeborah @bealejonathan @Diplo1 @jeromestarkey @MarkNicolDM @sylviapfeifer @CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC @commonslibrary @nicholadrummond @wavellroom @thinkdefence @UKDefJournal @ArmyCGS @AdmTonyRadakin_ @BritishArmy
A thread following CGS's podcast Overall, a very interesting listen, with some very good points made, especially such things as the fact that the UK is a maritime, not a continental power, and that the Army should not, and never has aimed to be the largest.

But there are a few things I'd like to pick up on...

OK, off the back of 2-days of work on anti-ship missiles, I have a question to which I look to naval-minded Twitteratti...

In land ops, you have the concept of K-kills and M (mobility) kills, possibly interchangeable with suppression. Depending on the circumstances, either can be entirely acceptable - K-kill might be seen as the acme, but just depends.

When it comes to Anti-ship operations, is there the same concept? OK, you might want to see the enemy ship just blow up, but might an M-kill be "good enough"?

Now, most will suppose that the UK MoD's National Shipbuilding Strategy is "just" about warships and auxiliaries. But eh March 2022 Refresh talked about a "30yr Cross-Govt Shipbuilding Pipeline", so not just MoD...
nlb.org.uk/news/northern-… @SteveT_Unite @ianwaddell_CSEU @JohnHealey_MP @brianrjohnso @rich_scott2 @UKDefJournal @thinkdefence @DefenceHQ @BWallaceMP @peggyhollinger @jeromestarkey @commonslibrary @CommonsDefence @NavyLookout

OK, back onto one of my hobby horses: Foreign Exchange rates, and the impact for UK defence. The chart here is what has happened to the £/$ rate over the past year: basically a 20% decline. So what? Well, there is a serious UK MoD exposure to FOREX fluctuations... This chart shows what % of the EPP is spent on US OTS-supplied equipment. It takes the in-year spends on programmes such as F-35, E-7, AH-64E etc, and calculates this against the brute EPP figure. It excludes deterrent costs, which are opaque - but are on top of these.

@Rotorfocus @GarethJennings3 @sylviapfeifer @BAESystemsAir @BAESystemsplc @Leonardo_UK @LDO_Aircraft @Saab @jmcollingridge @benmoores2 @shashj @JAPANinUK

News filters to mine ears - well, the kids are back at school, so I can now listen properly... ..that LM is on a pretty hefty campaign across Whitehall and Westminster. The target, the aim? To rubbish Tempest! "Too expensive", "won't succeed", "we know how much these things cost", "better to buy more F-35s" all messages being put over.

@AirbusHeli @Leonardo_UK @Sikorsky @DefenceHQ @DefenceES @wavellroom @thinkdef @UKDefJournal @Rotorfocus @GarethJennings3 @CommonsDefence @sylviapfeifer @larisamlbrown @SheridanDani @JohnHealey_MP @benmoores2
News out of the to-and-fro of the New Medium Helicopter (NMH)... Lockheed has put in a bid saying that Blackhawk would be assembled in/on Leonardo's line at Yeovil, thus giving Social Value to a bid that otherwise lacks it.

Only one wee problem: LM hasn't actually negotiated with Leonardo about this deal! So, they've put a bid into MoD...

@AirbusDefence @Dassault_OnAir @Stephane_Fort @DefAeroNews @Rotorfocus @GarethJennings3 @Armee_de_lair @Armees_Gouv OK, I'm going to call it: SCAF is a goner.
opex360.com/2022/07/02/sys…
augengeradeaus.net/2022/07/merkpo… It might be difficult to imagine, but the "old" Franco-German defence relationship is now just over. Like a relationship where the partners slowly fall out of love with each other, well, that's what we are seeing. It's not personal, but Macron and Scholz aren't Kohl/Mitterrand.

@RoyalAirForce @DefenceHQ @larisamlbrown @SheridanDani @sylviapfeifer @Peggy @jeromestarkey @CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC @Meg_HillierMP @Rotorfocus @GarethJennings3 @benmoores2
So, good progress being made on E-7 Wedgetail, no? As ever from a curmudgeon like me, no...

https://twitter.com/RAF_ISTAR/status/1542780483033042944

@thinkdefence @UKDefJournal @bealejonathan @nicholadrummond @JohnHealey_MP

@CommonsDefence @CommonsPAC @benmoores2 @BWallaceMP @JonHawkes275 @JohnHealey_MP @nicholadrummond @UKDefJournal @DefenceES @shashj @larisamlbrown @sylviapfeifer @thinkdefence @wavellroom As "things" start to flood in, a thread about Morpheus... I'm sure we've all seen this meme, and laughed. And I am equally sure that the reaction from many inside the management and scoping of the programme will be circling the wagons, and trying to assure everyone that nothing is wrong with Morpheus, or the wider LETacIS...