Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 22 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Russian Telegram channels are reacting to the Belgorod attack in a variety of ways

A thread that explains how Russia is responding to events in Belgorod /1
One narrative on Telegram is that the Belgorod attacks are an "information strike" rather than a military-strategic one

Ukraine is trying to disperse Russia's resources and to compensate for losing Bakhmut, while Russia is eliminating the threat /2
This narrative builds directly on comments from Dmitry Peskov, who blasted Ukrainian saboteurs as being behind the attack and emphasized the cogent FSB, National Guard and Russian military response

The Belgorod governor mirrored these claims too /3
Other commentators are more critical of Russia's response to the Belgorod attack

Alexander Kots is publicly decrying the weaknesses of Russian surveillance and lack of mining of areas of Belgorod to allow seamless progress
t.me/sashakots/39849
Rybar appears to be contradicting the Ukrainian saboteur theory and is acknowledging Kyiv's claims about Russian partisans

These partisans have been inspired by Ukrainian rhetoric about a Belgorod National Republic since April 2022
t.me/rybar/47421
Yevgeny Prigozhin is deploring bad governance as the cause of the attack and is warning of a broader threat to Belgorod and Kursk

The Bakhmut win hasn't silenced his attacks on the Russian Defence Ministry
t.me/Prigozhin_hat/…
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov is calling for strikes on decision-making centers in Kyiv, a push to annex Kharkiv and new waves of mobilization

This encapsulates the views of many Russian hardliners. Markov usually backs Prigozhin against the MoD
t.me/logikamarkova/…
Ultra-nationalists are even more critical of the Russian response in Belgorod

Wagner unit Rusich says that Russia has little to counter Ukrainian sabotage and openly mocks Defence Ministry reports of losses on then Ukrainian side/fire damage from Russia
t.me/dshrg2/918
Igor Girkin is interestingly not being as alarmist as many others despite his warnings of a Belgorod front

He is dismissing a Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun unless Ukraine's activities take shape in Donetsk and says fighting is only in 1 village of Belgorod
In general, the Belgorod attack will likely sharpen rifts between the Russian Defence Ministry and its rivals, and ensure that the frictions over Bakhmut continue to escalate

This by itself as a victory for Ukraine /END

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More from @SamRamani2

May 18
Russia's ultranationalist war hawks capture a lot of media attention

Do they pose a real threat to Vladimir Putin's power?

Find out more in this thread /1
Ultranationalist pressure on the Kremlin is not new

The hardline sentiments that inspired the 1991 coup against Gorbachev never truly disappeared

The LDPR's success in the 1993 Duma elections and the corresponding constitutional crisis posed a threat to Yeltsin's authority /2
The 2008 Georgian War and 2014-15 Donbas/Crimea War made hardliners vocal

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May 15
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Some more details and analysis /1
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BREAKING: Moldova withdraws from the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly
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Maia Sandu had also not attended a single CIS summit since taking power in 2020

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May 14
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A summary of its key contentions and what it covers /1
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My book focuses on another dimension: how Putin is using this war to remake Russia's identity /2
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Leaked documents reveal Zelensky's plans to extend the geographical scope of Ukrainian missile strikes

Some key details and analysis here /1
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May 13
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Some more details /1
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Mikhail Axel, an ideological partner of Zakhar Prilepin, in The National Bolshevik Party called the conference the start of a new patriotic political force

Axel said the force would be united around one idea: Victory for Russia /3
Read 7 tweets

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