Russian Telegram channels are reacting to the Belgorod attack in a variety of ways
A thread that explains how Russia is responding to events in Belgorod /1
One narrative on Telegram is that the Belgorod attacks are an "information strike" rather than a military-strategic one
Ukraine is trying to disperse Russia's resources and to compensate for losing Bakhmut, while Russia is eliminating the threat /2
This narrative builds directly on comments from Dmitry Peskov, who blasted Ukrainian saboteurs as being behind the attack and emphasized the cogent FSB, National Guard and Russian military response
The Belgorod governor mirrored these claims too /3
Other commentators are more critical of Russia's response to the Belgorod attack
Alexander Kots is publicly decrying the weaknesses of Russian surveillance and lack of mining of areas of Belgorod to allow seamless progress t.me/sashakots/39849
Rybar appears to be contradicting the Ukrainian saboteur theory and is acknowledging Kyiv's claims about Russian partisans
These partisans have been inspired by Ukrainian rhetoric about a Belgorod National Republic since April 2022 t.me/rybar/47421
Yevgeny Prigozhin is deploring bad governance as the cause of the attack and is warning of a broader threat to Belgorod and Kursk
The Bakhmut win hasn't silenced his attacks on the Russian Defence Ministry t.me/Prigozhin_hat/…
Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov is calling for strikes on decision-making centers in Kyiv, a push to annex Kharkiv and new waves of mobilization
This encapsulates the views of many Russian hardliners. Markov usually backs Prigozhin against the MoD t.me/logikamarkova/…
Ultra-nationalists are even more critical of the Russian response in Belgorod
Wagner unit Rusich says that Russia has little to counter Ukrainian sabotage and openly mocks Defence Ministry reports of losses on then Ukrainian side/fire damage from Russia t.me/dshrg2/918
Igor Girkin is interestingly not being as alarmist as many others despite his warnings of a Belgorod front
He is dismissing a Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun unless Ukraine's activities take shape in Donetsk and says fighting is only in 1 village of Belgorod
In general, the Belgorod attack will likely sharpen rifts between the Russian Defence Ministry and its rivals, and ensure that the frictions over Bakhmut continue to escalate
This by itself as a victory for Ukraine /END
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BREAKING: Moldova withdraws from the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly
Moldova's withdrawal was expected as Maia Sandu had previously alluded to exits from selective CIS institutions
Moldova Parliamentary President Igor Grosu's description of the assembly as "useless" underscores just how tense relations with Russia are currently
Maia Sandu had also not attended a single CIS summit since taking power in 2020
Russian media is amplifying the views of pro-Russian former President Igor Dodon, who warned Moldova would not survive without engaging with Russia, the CIS and the EAEU
My new book Putin's War on Ukraine explains the long road to war and Russia's uncertain future
A summary of its key contentions and what it covers /1
Russia's invasion has been explained by many factors: fear of NATO expansion, Putin's ill health and regime security concerns, distraction from a declining economy amongst them
My book focuses on another dimension: how Putin is using this war to remake Russia's identity /2
Under Putin, counter-revolution became a key component of Russia's foreign policy identity that unites all generations of Russians
A war to overturn the Euro-Maidan Revolution builds on this identity consolidation project
Putin's War on Ukraine is also a war on liberalism /3
Russia's Angry Patriots Club held a conference to attack the Kremlin's handling of the war
It featured many of the leading hardline critics of the war effort
Some more details /1
MH-17 perpetrator Igor Girkin led proceedings by blasting the stagnant frontline and claiming that the Russian Armed Forces are ill-prepared/incapable of decisive actions
Girkin warns of a 1917 revolution scenario as Russia's leaders remain feckless /2
Mikhail Axel, an ideological partner of Zakhar Prilepin, in The National Bolshevik Party called the conference the start of a new patriotic political force
Axel said the force would be united around one idea: Victory for Russia /3