Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ An analysis of social media messages by relatives of Wagner Group members fighting in Bakhmut shows that January 2023 was likely the deadliest month for the mercenary organisation. At least 502 are confirmed to have died, though the real figure is likely many times more. ⬇️

2/ The independent Russian media outlet Verstka has analysed tens of thousands of social media posts by relatives of Wagner members with the daily reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar), and has found clear correlations with specific operations.

3/ They include "messages in which the authors indicated the date of death, or provided supporting documents – a death certificate, an extract from the registry office, copies of posthumous award letters and letters of thanks indicating the place of death of their loved one."

4/ From this data, Verstka judges that Wagner began sustaining heavy casualties in and around Bakhmut from October 2022. Messages reporting the deaths of loved ones were infrequent in August and September, when the front line had not yet reached Bakhmut.

5/ Verstka says that 55% of the total reported Wagner fatalities in October occurred on just two dates – 24 and 27 October. This correlates with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks on a concrete plant and areas around Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1584555571012784130?s=20

6/ In November 2022, the number of reports of dead Wagner members increased by more than 250% as they were sent on suicidal assaults against Ukrainian positions. Verstka says that reported "deaths in the first two weeks of the month are evenly distributed on almost every day".

7/ 12.5% of reported Wagner deaths in November occurred on 19 November, with another spike on 21 November, when its members sought to capture Klischiivka and Ivanhrad south of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1589230611885350917?s=20

8/ Reported Wagner fatalities increased by another 250% in December, 13.1% of them happening on 8 December as Wagner was seeking to take the village of Yakovlivka. An assault on eastern Bakhmut between 13-18 December caused another spike in casualties.

9/ At least 1,000 Wagner members are said by the US to have died in December alone. In January 2023, fatalities jumped by another 300%. The second and third weeks accounted for 54% of all reported Wagner fatalities in the entire battle, correlating with the capture of Soledar.

10/ By this point, Wagner had sustained so many fatalities that it was reported to be having problems in removing all the bodies. It was said to be having to "run around the market with the corpses" to find drivers and trucks so they could be repatriated.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1609535244402659331

11/ During February 2023, the number of reported fatalities dropped by almost 35%. More than 18% of fatalities during the month occurred on 4 and 24 February, correlating with attempts to encircle Bahkmut from the north, east and south.

12/ Another drop occurred in March 2023. The reported death toll was about 35% below the February level and 58% below the January figures. About 73% of all reports of the death of Wagner members occurred in the first half of March, by when about 50% of the city had been captured.

13/ A further fall in reported fatalities occurred in April 2023, but Verstka notes that this may be distorted by Wagner being slow to inform relatives of the deaths of their loved ones. By this point, Wagner was fighting towards the city centre.

14/ It hasn't yet been possible for Verstka to do an analysis of May's reported fatalities, but frontline reports suggest the month has been "extremely tense and bloody." Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin posted a video showing the bodies of dead fighters.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1654349700563103744?s=20

15/ By now, as Verstka notes, it's likely that Russia has sustained tens of thousands of fatalities in and near Bakhmut. A disproportionate number are likely to have been poorly trained 'disposable troops' recruited from prisons. /end

Source:
verstka.media/bitva-za-bahmut