Crémieux Profile picture
May 22 3 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Okay.

White kids are more likely to be bullied in schools where the population is less White.

Look in the paper for the other surprise (Fig. 1): the amount of bullying received by Black kids is unrelated to school ethnic composition. Link: https://link.springer...
Ethnic bullying differences hold up in the UK too.

Every other race is less likely to be bullied than Whites and almost every one is more likely to be bullies. Source: https://www.science...
Calling vouchers racist is clearly not a productive angle to strike from because there's an obvious response: Why would White parents parents want to segregate?

And when you realize safety is involved, you have to ask: Is it actually racist to value kids' safety?

Obviously not.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

May 22
A recent paper addressed the causality of this relationship with a set of interesting instrumental variables.

They used

- Cranial capacity
- Ancestry-adjusted UV radiation
- Numeracy in the 19th century

Here's what they found: national IQ differences affect growth rates. Image
The smarter the country's population, the faster the economy tends to grow.

You can use modern national IQ estimates to show this, or you can get similar estimates based on the sizes of those population's brains, a proxy for state history (UVR/distance from equator), or their
numeracy in the 19th-century.

It only takes a look at growth chart updates to see there's not major reverse causality between growth and cranial capacity, nor can there be with numeracy two centuries ago, and obviously UVR isn't caused by growth.

Smarts matter a lot.
Read 4 tweets
May 22
Let's check this out with some public datasets

- High School and Beyond (1980)
- The National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988
- The Education Longitudinal Study of 2002

First, the odds of obtaining a bachelor's degree, controlling for test scores (educational achievement). Image
Second, the odds of working in a prestigious occupation, controlling for test scores. Image
Third, household income (HSB/ELS) and personal income (NELS:88).

For this outcome, it appeared there were some bad differences that remained, but only for household income. Follow-up lengths here were 11 years, 11 years, and 9 years, so incomes were still somewhat unstable. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 21
Changes to the Bar exam so far don't seem to have made a dent in the race differences in performance on it.

How large are these differences? In the latest year, 2022, the Black-White gap in California Bar pass rates was 0.97 SDs.

And this matters because we expect a threshold Image
to practice (the Bar exam) to reduce subsequent performance gaps.

But how much should those gaps be reduced?

Let's simulate to find out!

@_twolfram recently provided an estimate for British lawyers' IQs of 110.31: sciencedirect.com/science/articl….

Let's go ahead and assume
there's a threshold that's 0.67 SDs (10 points) above the higher-performing of two groups with equal variances who are separated by 0.97 d.

With simulated group sizes of one million persons each, the mean differences decline, and the SDs do too. The new gap is 0.412 d. Image
Read 10 tweets
May 21
In light of findings from genome-wide association studies, I do not consider generally improved self-control to be an unsurprising side effect of Ozempic.

Consider this: BMI-related genes are primarily expressed in the brain and CNS rather than through hormones or digestion. Source: https://www.nature....
But we can be more specific: BMI-related gene expression is relatively extreme in the insula and the substantia nigra.

So what? Well, two things. Source: https://www.nature....
First, you may know the insula as the "hidden island of addiction".

There's a lot of human research on the role of the insula in cocaine, heroin, and cigarette addiction, and recently, in obesity. Because it's mostly not causally informative, I'm going to stick to animal models. Link: https://www.cell.com/...
Read 14 tweets
May 20
I've noticed a lot of people misinterpreting these sorts of graphs to mean that underperforming groups must be receiving some form of affirmative action

That may not be what they show. They primarily show two things

- Regression to the mean
- Threshold selection

Consider this: Image
If you have two groups with different means for variable X and you have a threshold for the level of X to get into a classification, the group with more people further out from that threshold will have a higher mean beyond it.

This is purely statistical.
But you see a similar pattern for groups stratified by their parents' education and income levels. This is because of two things.

First, parental SES is not a strong cause. The causal part of the relationship between it and kids' IQs is overstated.

Data:
Read 24 tweets
May 19
Everyone posts this picture, and it is compelling, but in this thread, I'm going to post replications. Check alt-texts for sources.

This is basically a graph repository.

I'll start with the SAT.

The picture posted by @monitoringbias is from the 2008 administration of the SAT. Source 1: https://www.jstor...
The results were the same in 1995. Source: http://www.lagriffe...
The results were the same in 2003. Source: https://journals.sa...
Read 26 tweets

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