✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 22 • 12 tweets • 6 min read Twitter logo

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1/12》Many climate activists just PRETEND to be worried about #ClimateChange. They LIKE being alarmed.

The proof is in their reactions. When a "worse than we thought" story hits the press, they're gleeful. But when you show them good news, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

2/12》If the good news comes from a conservative source, they disparage it, regardless of the strength of the evidence. If it's from "their side," like this NASA article & video, they pretend it away.
nasa.gov/feature/goddar…

Either way they're angry.

3/12》They LIKE believing their dark delusions, and they actively avoid learning anything that might offer hope. If you try to show them balanced information, or balanced debates between experts on both sides of the issue, they won't even look at it.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

4/12》If they claim to be worried about sea-level rise, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't relieved, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

5/12》If they've heard the false claims that #ClimateChange makes droughts worse, and you show them evidence like this, or show them the agronomy studies proving that elevated CO2 mitigates drought damage, they aren't encouraged, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

6/12》If they think that climate change is worsening forest fires and brushfires, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't relieved, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

7/12》If they've heard that recent warming is "unprecedented," and you show them studies documenting dozens of natural Dansgaard-Oeschger events, in which warming was >10× as rapid — with no catastrophic consequences — they aren't relieved, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

8/12》If they blame climate change for hurricanes, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't relieved, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

9/12》If they blame other kinds of storms on climate change, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't relieved, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

10/12》No amount of peer-reviewed scientific evidence will move them. If they think climate change is bad for agriculture, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't encouraged, they're angry.
sealevel.info/negative_socia…

11/12》If they claim to be worried about world hunger, and you show them evidence like this, they aren't glad to learn it, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

12/12》Such people are willfully delusional. They insist on believing depressing lies, in defiance of all facts and evidence, because they WANT to be alarmed.
Frankly, it is pathological.
sealevel.info/keynes_quote02…

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✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 24

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Droughts are NOT getting worse. Globally, the trend is slightly down (better):

nature.com/articles/sdata…

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Not worse in the USA, either.

ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-preci…

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Not worse in Europe, either.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…

wattsupwiththat.com/2022/08/20/deb…

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 23

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 1/ That's complete nonsense.

Given the constraints of limited fossil fuels, negative carbon feedbacks (which remove CO2 from the air), and logarithmically diminishing warming effect, we might eventually get as much as 1°C of additional warming from CO2. Probably less.

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 2/ 1°C is the temperature change ("climate change") you get from an elevation change of about 500 feet.

@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 3/ At mid-latitudes, 1°C is about the temperature change you get from a latitude change of just 60 miles.

How different are the flora and fauna 60 miles from where you live?

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 23

@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 1/ Yes, he surely knows it. People like WowBagger tweet from anonymous IDs so that they can behave badly without personal consequences.

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1655976339076153348

@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 2/ The Most Trusted Man in America™:

@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 3/ The 1970s consensus that human activity was causing dangerous global cooling was taught as scientific fact in schools, promoted by leading climatologists like UEA CRU founder Hubert Lamb (Cronkite's source), and widely reported.
cru.uea.ac.uk/about-cru/hube…

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 22

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 3°C is the IPCC's estimate for ECS, but that's just one measure of climate sensitivity, and it's from an organization with severe credibility problems. Estimates of ECS based on real world measurements are generally lower, and TCR is only about 2/3 of ECS.

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1660390017187938305

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 We've already had 58.5% of the forcing (warming effect) we'd get from a full doubling of CO2, plus about half that much again from other GHGs. So the warming we've gotten should be about 88% of a doubling.

Best estimate of that is about 1.2°C.

@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 Assuming it's ALL human-caused (which is unlikely):

1.2 / 88% = 1.36°C.

That's probably about halfway between TCR & ECS.

I hope it is obvious why so many scientists think it is obvious that the IPCC's climate sensitivity estimates are far too high!

sealevel.info/radiative_imba…

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 20

@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition Billy, nobody claims that nearly all heat transport is via IR. The so-called "greenhouse warming" effect doesn't depend on such a claim. In my 1500-word comment I noted that water cycle / latent heat transport (70-88 W/m²) cools the surface more than net LW IR flux (52-60 W/m²).

@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition GDwarf, I wish NASA would not omit the confidence intervals from their energy/ERB diagrams (including the one Tom Shula used). Note that I've included guesstimated confidence intervals in the figures I've cited. They're from comparing various sources, and from the NCA4 diagram.

@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition My annotated NCA4 diagram:
sealevel.info/NCA4_global_en…

Note the parenthesized confidence intervals in small print beneath each of their flux estimates: e.g.,
161 (154, 166) for "solar absorbed surface"

When NASA gave estimates outside those CIs, I used expanded CIs to include them.

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton

@ncdave4life

May 18

@Michael_D_Crow @FreeSpeech4U_Me @ChadHenneman @Veritatem2021 @DenisDaly @BenKoby1911 @SpiruSensei @Anvndarnamn5 @EdwardRiffle @S_Metzeler @WernerReinhard5 @AndreGrossza @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @Michellesince66 @priscian @C_R_O_M________ @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @AuroriaEn @JusticeTrudeau @Mark_A_Lunn @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 1/3》Feldman measured downwelling LW IR from CO2 at ground level, under clear sky conditions, for a decade. They found that a 22 ppmv (= +5.946%) CO2 level increase (+8.333% forcing) caused a 0.2±0.06 W/m² increase in LW IR from CO2. That's +2.40 ±0.72 W/m² per CO2 doubling.

@Michael_D_Crow @FreeSpeech4U_Me @ChadHenneman @Veritatem2021 @DenisDaly @BenKoby1911 @SpiruSensei @Anvndarnamn5 @EdwardRiffle @S_Metzeler @WernerReinhard5 @AndreGrossza @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @Michellesince66 @priscian @C_R_O_M________ @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @AuroriaEn @JusticeTrudeau @Mark_A_Lunn @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 2/3》But ≈22.6% of solar radiation is reflected away, without reaching the surface or being absorbed in the atmosphere. Adjusting for having measured at the surface, rather than TOA, yields 1.29 × (2.40 ±0.72) = 3.10 ±0.93 W/m² at TOA per doubling of CO2.
sealevel.info/Radiative_Forc…

@Michael_D_Crow @FreeSpeech4U_Me @ChadHenneman @Veritatem2021 @DenisDaly @BenKoby1911 @SpiruSensei @Anvndarnamn5 @EdwardRiffle @S_Metzeler @WernerReinhard5 @AndreGrossza @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @Michellesince66 @priscian @C_R_O_M________ @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @AuroriaEn @JusticeTrudeau @Mark_A_Lunn @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 3/3》From 1972 to 2022 CO2 level rose from 327.46 to 418.56 (91.1 ppmv = +27.82%), causing a radiative forcing increase equal to 35.4% of a doubling of CO2. 35.4% of (3.10±0.93 W/m²) = 1.10 ±0.33 W/m².

+1.1 W/m² should yield 0.3 to 0.5 °C of warming.
sealevel.info/Radiative_Forc…

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