Thread by @minna_alander

Excellent “how to deal with Russia” programme by @bctallis.

Discussions on EU-Russia relations tend to go round in circles along the lines “Russia is our neighbour” and “we can’t change geography”. Some thoughts from me to add to Ben’s thread:

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1660896948897869825

As a Finn it’s borderline gaslighting to hear these statements from esp Germans and French, as Russia *actually* is our neighbour (which it is not, contrary to popular belief, to Germany or France) and we very well know that we can’t change geography.

Precisely because geography can’t be changed and Russia is our neighbour, much of Finnish history is about how to best deal with Russia - which includes to a great extent how to protect ourselves from it. That’s why Finland never stopped preparing for a war.

Even in the optimistic early 2000’s, and despite Finland’s great efforts (including a good amount of bending over backwards) to have as good as possible neighbourly relations with Russia, the possibility of armed aggression against Finland was never excluded in govt reports

It wasn’t politically correct to openly talk about the threat Russia potentially posed, so it wasn’t spelled out in so many words, but it was always clear that the armed aggression would come from the east (or, as the army joke goes, if it comes from the west, it’s flanking)

I was astonished to hear a senior 🇫🇷 diplomat say at #lennartmericonference that this is the first time EU enlargement is used for geopolitical purposes. It’s always been - the eastern enlargement very much so and also Finland joined for geopolitical and security reasons in -95.

We urgently need a better shared understanding within the EU of how joining the union has been very geopolitical for countries close to Russia and membership has served primarily a security purpose, and secondly the common market and all the rest that is nice to have.

Joining the EU has meant to show Russia that you clearly choose NOT to belong to it’s sphere of influence. Now you can ask about Orbán’s Hungary, but in the end he’s also only able to play his games with the Kremlin *because* Hungary is an EU and NATO member.

Now back to how to deal with Russia. Going forward, the EU needs to avoid the “reward trap”: a pattern in EU-Russia relations where Russia creates a problem and then expects

a) others to solve it and clean up (sometimes literally)
b) to be rewarded for stopping being the problem

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1658109619162554369

That’s why this point Ben makes is so important: we should expect and demand Russia to change. But we can’t do it for them (unless somebody is prepared to completely militarily defeat and occupy Russia like Germany after WWII. Nobody ? Didn’t think so)

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1660896964198772736