Thread by @MarkHertling

Yesterday, I posited that the attack by the "Russian Volunteer Corps" or "Liberty of Russian Legion" into Belgorod/Bilhorod Oblast was likely a raid.

A raid is doctrinally defined as a type of limited attack for a specific purpose. 1/6

While not having additional intelligence on this incursion into Russia, I still believe it is a raid.

Raids are used to threaten or seize a limited objective, they cause movement by the enemy to defend against the raid & they are usually short in duration with a small force. 2/

Raiding forces sustain themselves (no need for a logistics supply line), and after achieving their objective(s) they usually quickly withdraw.

A raid surprises the enemy, throws the enemy off their plan, and causes confusion. 3/

Without additional intel, I still believe this is was a quick and limited raid.

I believe they will
1. Stay in place for between 48-96 hours, then withdraw
2. Sustain themselves while in place with (no resupply operations)
3. Attempt to limit casualties. 4/

If this was a raid, they achieved ALL their objectives:
1. Surprised Russian border guards & defense ministry
2. Scared sh*t out of local Russian citizens
3. Sent a message to Putin
4. Achieved greater distance w/ few casualties.
5. Caused relocation of Russian forces 5/

Telltale indicators of this being a raid will be if/when the force withdraws back to Ukraine.

There may be other such raids/feints/
demonstrations to gather more information about Russian force dispositions and reinforcement priorities.

Well done! 6/6