Allow me to introduce a new thread featuring our defenders, who agreed to share their experiences and answer questions. I hope that my readers can gain a deeper understanding of the ongoing war. Today, I'm pleased to present Shootnik, @Shootnick_14 - a national guardsman
Hi! Could you tell a little bit about yourself?
Hello! Before the war, I was a sociologist who enjoyed traveling in Ukraine and abroad. Computer games, whiskey, and TV series were my pastimes. Now, I have a deep interest in studying new weapons and tactical medicine.
Tell us about your initial encounter with the enemy
The initial enemy encounter involved an 82mm mortar. As we reached our positions, it took 15 minutes before we found ourselves in a mortar exchange. In the first week, we faced tank, artillery, MLRS, and air force bombardments.
How has the enemy changed since then?
In my experience, the enemy increased the quantity and quality of drones. Frontline soldiers encounter various small drones, including those with thermal imagers. Russians know how to fight, improve and mitigate identified weaknesses.
Are tanks obsolete in modern warfare? What's your opinion?
Those who say so lack battle experience. Tanks are deadly, powerful, and fearsome weapons. Even the outdated Russian tanks on secondary and tertiary defense lines pose a serious threat. Not to mention their upgraded tanks
Your favorite Western weapons used?
I've only used the Matador, AT-4, and NLAW grenade launchers. I highly appreciate them, especially the Matador for its simplicity and functionality. I also use a c7a1 rifle, which I like for its accuracy, despite its longer length.
Top-3 issues in our military?
Key challenges are limited weaponry and ammo, lack of communication, and personnel with a Soviet mindset. While the first problem can be tackled physically, the 2nd and 3rd demand changes through novel training methods and fostering a military ethos
Your thoughts on civilian volunteers in the war?
They are the force that helps us to survive and safeguard our people. They provide vehicles, medicine, surveillance tools, and protection that we urgently require. Without their assistance, we would have suffered greater losses.
Does international aid make a noticeable impact at your level?
As a fire support soldier in an NGU brigade, I especially appreciate the support from Eastern European countries. Our unit received Bulgarian, Polish, and Czech variants of soviet weapons, for which I am grateful
Did the war reveal any new aspects about Ukrainians for you?
If the army reflects society, then I've truly observed the essence of Ukrainian society: its pros and cons would require a long thread. The key point I can make is that Ukrainians are very distinct and unique people.
Your vision for Ukraine's post-war future?
After the war, I expect challenging city and town rebuilding phase. Social challenges are expected to arise as well. Limited Western response to russia necessitates our preparedness for Ukraine's next defense as long as Russia exists.
Could you provide a list of your favorite places in Ukraine that you would recommend visiting?
Stokhid River, Volyn. Lychakiv Cemetery, Lviv, Carpathian Mountains, Black Sea. My favorite cities are Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Chernivtsi.
If you found this thread enjoyable, please remember to follow and share. I apologize for the concise format of questions and answers due to Twitter's limitations. Nevertheless, I plan to continue and expand this format in the future🇺🇦
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Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
🧵Thread:
2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic