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✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
@ncdave4life
May 24 • 12 tweets • 16 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Droughts are NOT getting worse. Globally, the trend is slightly down (better):

nature.com/articles/sdata…

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Not worse in the USA, either.

ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-preci… Image
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue Not worse in Europe, either.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…

wattsupwiththat.com/2022/08/20/deb…
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue What's more, as I've already told you, rising CO2 levels help mitigate drought impacts, by making plants more water-efficient. All major crops have been studied, and they all benefit from more CO2. It is settled science.

Here's a paper about wheat:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26929390
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue That's one of the reasons that catastrophic drought-triggered famines are fading from living memory.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue If you're too young to remember catastrophic droughts & famines, you might not understand what a Big Deal that is. For all of human history, drought & famine were a Damoclean sword hanging over mankind, the Third Horseman of the Apocalypse — until now. Image
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue For perspective...

● Covid-19 (at about 415 ppmv CO2) has killed about 0.1% of the world's population.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue ● The 1959-1961 Great Chinese Famine (at 317 ppmv CO2) killed about 1% of the world's population.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue ● WWII (at 310 ppmv CO2) killed about 2.7% of the world's population.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue ● The catastrophic 1918 flu pandemic (at 303 ppmv CO2) killed about 2% of the world's population.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue ● But the global drought and famine of 1876-78 (at 289 ppmv CO2) killed about 3.7% of the world's population, even though they had only 1/6 as many mouths to feed as we have today.

Thankfully, that doesn't happen anymore, and CO2 is one of the reasons.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue @threadreaderapp @rattibha @threaddotblue unroll

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More from @ncdave4life

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 25
@Badumtish97 ⟦1/7⟧ "In less than a lifetime," eh?

Have you ever wondered why all the harms from climate change are promised for the distant future, but the benefits are measurable, right now?


sealevel.info/Africans_go_ba… Image
@Badumtish97 ⟦2/7⟧ It's because the benefits are real, and the harms are not.

Thousands of rigorous peer-reviewed studies have confirmed the benefits. (You'll find them mostly in the agronomy literature, not the heavily politicized "climate science" literature.)
sealevel.info/negative_socia…
@Badumtish97 ⟦3/7⟧ All major crops have been studied. They ALL benefit from more CO2.

The benefits of CO2 for crops are long-settled science. That's why commercial greenhouses use CO2 generators to drastically raise daytime CO2 levels in greenhouses.
co2science.org/data/plant_gro… Image
Read 7 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 23
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 1/ That's complete nonsense.

Given the constraints of limited fossil fuels, negative carbon feedbacks (which remove CO2 from the air), and logarithmically diminishing warming effect, we might eventually get as much as 1°C of additional warming from CO2. Probably less.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 2/ 1°C is the temperature change ("climate change") you get from an elevation change of about 500 feet.
@MisinformNoMore @WeiZhangAtmos 3/ At mid-latitudes, 1°C is about the temperature change you get from a latitude change of just 60 miles.

How different are the flora and fauna 60 miles from where you live?
Read 11 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 23
@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 1/ Yes, he surely knows it. People like WowBagger tweet from anonymous IDs so that they can behave badly without personal consequences.
@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 2/ The Most Trusted Man in America™:
@AndreGrossza @Anvndarnamn5 @S_Metzeler @Mark_A_Lunn @C_R_O_M________ @ChadHenneman @FreeSpeech4U_Me @DenisDaly @SpiruSensei @Melinda15858273 @GreyCat45 @priscian @ScienceBlog3 @InspirallPE @BenKoby1911 @ChrisBBacon3 @Climatehope2 @Data79504085 @3GHtweets @PvtMcAuslan @EdwardRiffle @fischerfischy @Willard1951 @Veritatem2021 @AuroriaEn @Michael_D_Crow @JusticeTrudeau @judgementalbe1 @AristotleMrs @Coleski14 @wallytoms0 @LesserMegadeath @WernerReinhard5 @S_D_Mannix @ammocrypta @JimBlack48 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @Joeyd87745119 @Devonian1342 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 3/ The 1970s consensus that human activity was causing dangerous global cooling was taught as scientific fact in schools, promoted by leading climatologists like UEA CRU founder Hubert Lamb (Cronkite's source), and widely reported.
cru.uea.ac.uk/about-cru/hube…
Read 15 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 22
1/12》Many climate activists just PRETEND to be worried about #ClimateChange. They LIKE being alarmed.

The proof is in their reactions. When a "worse than we thought" story hits the press, they're gleeful. But when you show them good news, they're angry.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
2/12》If the good news comes from a conservative source, they disparage it, regardless of the strength of the evidence. If it's from "their side," like this NASA article & video, they pretend it away.
nasa.gov/feature/goddar…

Either way they're angry.
3/12》They LIKE believing their dark delusions, and they actively avoid learning anything that might offer hope. If you try to show them balanced information, or balanced debates between experts on both sides of the issue, they won't even look at it.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
Read 12 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 22
@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 3°C is the IPCC's estimate for ECS, but that's just one measure of climate sensitivity, and it's from an organization with severe credibility problems. Estimates of ECS based on real world measurements are generally lower, and TCR is only about 2/3 of ECS.
Image
@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 We've already had 58.5% of the forcing (warming effect) we'd get from a full doubling of CO2, plus about half that much again from other GHGs. So the warming we've gotten should be about 88% of a doubling.

Best estimate of that is about 1.2°C.
@AlanPeery @gargantuandwarf @Anvndarnamn5 @bobathon @BenKoby1911 @Devonian1342 @DenisDaly @glinch72 @priscian @Rebecca74083947 @DaleGribble_666 @TopAlliedAceWW1 @ejwwest @Climatehope2 @JayDee64861546 @Willard1951 @MarshallCd @FredHikes @ammocrypta @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @Michael_D_Crow @safcpete67 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @fischerfischy @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @ChrisBBacon3 @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 Assuming it's ALL human-caused (which is unlikely):

1.2 / 88% = 1.36°C.

That's probably about halfway between TCR & ECS.

I hope it is obvious why so many scientists think it is obvious that the IPCC's climate sensitivity estimates are far too high!

sealevel.info/radiative_imba…
Read 5 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
May 20
@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition Billy, nobody claims that nearly all heat transport is via IR. The so-called "greenhouse warming" effect doesn't depend on such a claim. In my 1500-word comment I noted that water cycle / latent heat transport (70-88 W/m²) cools the surface more than net LW IR flux (52-60 W/m²).
@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition GDwarf, I wish NASA would not omit the confidence intervals from their energy/ERB diagrams (including the one Tom Shula used). Note that I've included guesstimated confidence intervals in the figures I've cited. They're from comparing various sources, and from the NCA4 diagram.
@gargantuandwarf @TopAlliedAceWW1 @MarshallCd @Michael_D_Crow @NotAHoax @fischerfischy @ChrisBBacon3 @DaleGribble_666 @FredHikes @Willard1951 @Mark_A_Lunn @adlrope @ejwwest @Devonian1342 @priscian @ammocrypta @Anvndarnamn5 @safcpete67 @Climatehope2 @BJChippindale @S_D_Mannix @DenisDaly @JimBlack48 @AndersBrunstad2 @periodicaudio @JusticeTrudeau @andrewmac71 @WernerReinhard5 @glinch72 @Jaisans @stitchnstab @CarrudoDon @Veritatem2021 @LiveLifeBK24 @BenKoby1911 @TheDisproof @AristotleMrs @Joeyd87745119 @Data79504085 @Hji45519156 @waxliberty @SuperFoxyLoxy @JaapTitulaer @wjack76995 @Rocky35418823 @NobaconEgbert @balls95652097 @JustThi30117912 @CO2Coalition My annotated NCA4 diagram:
sealevel.info/NCA4_global_en…

Note the parenthesized confidence intervals in small print beneath each of their flux estimates: e.g.,
161 (154, 166) for "solar absorbed surface"

When NASA gave estimates outside those CIs, I used expanded CIs to include them. Image
Read 7 tweets

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