Thread by @ukraine_world

What are the peculiarities of Gagauzia and what consequences can elections there have for 🇺🇦 and 🇲🇩? UkraineWorld asked Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Regional Initiatives and Neighborhood Program Director at the “Ukrainian Prism”. Key points — in our brief. #UkraineWorldAnalysis 1/15

The Gagauz autonomous polity (the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, or simply Gagauzia) was established within Moldova in the early 1990s. They also have communities in the southwestern part of Odesa Oblast. 2/15

The political orientation of Gagauzia is distinctly pro-Russian. The population’s sentiments are shaped mainly by Russian narratives and Russian media, which is facilitated by the fact that the population is mostly Russian-speaking. 3/15

Like Transnistria, Gagauzia followed a path of separatism. Negotiations made it possible to keep Gagauzia within Moldova, but with broad powers as an autonomous territorial unit. It has its own parliament - the National Assembly, and its head - the bashkan. 4/15

On May 14, Gagauzia held the second round of its elections. Yevgenia Gutsul, a representative of the populist pro-Russian Shor party of oligarch Ilan Shor, was elected the head of Gagauzia with 52% of the votes. 5/15

What does this have to do with 🇺🇦? The bashkan is a member of the 🇲🇩 government 👇 6/15

Even though bashkans have for the most part not used their position in the central government and have mostly preferred keeping themselves to Gagauzia, they still have the potential to be a pro-🇷🇺 voice in the government. 7/15

Gagauz people belong to the Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (OCMP). Amid the reformation of the ecclesiastical order currently underway in 🇺🇦 and the decreasing influence of the OCMP, there is some speculation among Gagauz in Odesa Oblast. 8/15

They are about whether their parishes will switch from the Moscow Patriarchate to the Kyiv one. This speculation will be supported by the Gagauz from the Moldovan side, where Orthodoxy and government authority are closely related. This can have a negative effect. 9/15

Moldova may face problems with its European integration process. But we must be aware that any tactics which succeed there may be replicated by Moscow in Ukraine, as well. 10/15

Public opinion about Russia's war against Ukraine is negative towards Ukraine. Russia is sometimes even more supported there than it is in Transnistria. But surveys clearly show that no one wants to take part in hostilities, neither in Transnistria nor in Gagauzia. 11/15

The majority of Gagauz people trust the 🇷🇺 mass media. Most Gagauz people believe that Ukrainians and the West, rather than 🇷🇺, are to blame for the war. They hold that 🇷🇺 was provoked and had no other choice. 12/15

The situation is unlikely to change radically after the elections. These sentiments will remain, and we must work with the Gagauz, but this will require significant resources which unfortunately neither Ukraine nor Moldova currently have. 13/15

As for the Gagauz in Odesa region, it is essential to ensure they have more diverse sources of information. Launching a Russian-language channel where we tell the truth isn’t enough. Russian propaganda permeates all TV products, including TV series and entertainment shows. 14/15

If an ordinary Gagauz is given a choice between watching a 🇷🇺 show or a 🇺🇦 news program, they will choose the 🇷🇺 show and continue to remain under 🇷🇺’s information sway. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in Russian-language infotainment, but with the right narratives. 15/15

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