The Rational Walk Profile picture
May 25 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The litmus test for giving government power that could be irreversible is NOT what you think of those currently in power when you like them. It’s what your worst enemies would do with the same power because eventually they’ll gain access to it. #CBDC
If you’re progressive, imagine what Trump or DeSantis would do with CBDCs.

If you’re a conservative, imagine what Biden, Harris, or Newsom would do with CBDCs.

It’s not difficult to think these scenarios through. You must be ok with your political enemies having the power.
Government has no right to know what free people spend money on and who they associate with on a daily basis. Such invasion of privacy should require a warrant. With CBDCs, everything will be tracked. And if you think govt can be trusted, you haven’t been paying attention.
America is currently run by two corrupt and authoritarian parties. Different beliefs and goals but authoritarian in nature and attitude. Neither one can be trusted with unchecked power and unlimited information. They will abuse it as surely as water flows downhill.
If I choose to do so, I can walk out my door without a phone. I can pay cash for public transit, pay cash for lunch, pay cash for a coffee and a book, and spend my day reading in a way unknown to anyone. I doubt this will be possible in 2030. And there is inherent value in this.

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More from @rationalwalk

May 27
A successful business career used to be a strong qualification for public service and politics. Today, public service is a ticket to wealth and power in business.

wsj.com/articles/lazar…
I would rather see a long and successful career in business followed by retirement to pursue public service than a long and successful career in politics followed by a business career.
Should only rich people serve in politics? Of course not. But an independently wealthy individual with decades in business who pursues politics potentially has wisdom and understanding of how the world works and is less corruptible.
Read 4 tweets
May 27
Inflation erodes trust in society but is good for the textbook private equity model of using massive debt to buy up companies, asset stripping, and increasing margins. Why? Debtors escape the real value of their obligations and real wages are quickly eroded. Fed's got your back.
The idea that inflation helps the poor is complete and total hogwash. As we have seen over the past two years, nominal wages go up but not enough to cover the higher cost of living.

Is this about heroin or ZIRP?

Newsflash: The Fed doesn't care about the poor. Not even a little bit.

rationalwalk.com/the-high-cost-…
Read 6 tweets
May 25
“When the ac­qui­si­tion closed, I would say it was anal­o­gous to be­ing tele­ported to a plane that was plung­ing to the ground with its en­gines on fire [and] the con­trols don’t work.”

— Elon Musk (aka Bizarro World Buffett)

wsj.com/articles/elon-…
But he’s probably right about this:

“Over a 20- to 30-year time frame, I think things will be trans­formed be­yond be­lief,” Musk said. “You prob­a­bly won’t rec­og­nize so­ci­ety in 30 years.”
My baseline assumption is that human freedom declines and government power increases in irreversible ways over the next 30 years as privacy becomes nonexistent. We only have a few years to apply the brakes to prevent this from happening.
Read 4 tweets
May 25
I have no problem tipping 20%, but the deal is that it is in exchange for doing something beyond handing over a coffee or snack over a counter. Espresso drink? Sure. Drip coffee? No. Bagel with cream cheese? Sure. Handing over a plain, uncut bagel? No.
wsj.com/articles/why-t…
I used to tip 15% with 20% for excellent service. During Covid, I bumped it up to 20-25% and that’s fine. It doesn’t make a difference to me and makes a difference to the server. But I am tired of the shakedowns for handing something over a counter.
And don’t get me started on takeout (pick up, not delivery). There’s a difference between waiting on someone for an hour and handing over a bag of food. I tip 10%, not 20-25%, on takeout. Of course, I despise takeout and never get delivery so this is rarely an issue.
Read 4 tweets
May 25
I have no sympathy for companies caught up in the “culture wars” or shareholders who allow this to happen. Allowing pressure groups with agendas and no skin in the game to infiltrate the boardroom has consequences. These companies are playing a losing hand.
They go too far on one side, creating an enormous backlash they cannot ignore. Then they walk back partially, pissing off the pressure groups that prompted the initial decision and failing to placate the other side. Talk about a stupid lose-lose proposition. Everyone hates you.
No one with skin in the game will do such stupid things. Pressure groups will happily use the capital of absent and compliant shareholders to immolate brand value and cause billions of dollars of harm. They aren’t harmed. It’s someone else’s capital.
Read 4 tweets
May 25
You have a choice between having a net worth of $10 million and being completely unknown or $1 billion and being a celebrity who is recognized in public more often than not.

Which do you prefer?
The answer to the poll depends on whether you’d have any need or desire to spend more than the enormous sum of $300K every year in perpetuity. If not, the answer is easy. If so, is the reduction of privacy worth it.
The main differences between eight figure wealth and 9-10 figure wealth are more expensive homes and private aviation. I’m sure netjets is nice and a Central Park view penthouse apartment plus a 10,000 acre ranch somewhere would be great but I doubt any of it buys happiness.
Read 5 tweets

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