Thread by @Mylovanov

Jeffrey Sachs new article: The War in Ukraine Was Provoked.

He claims that the war was provoked by NATO expansion and started in 2022 with the US-sponsored violent coup.

Again all his arguments are false, but they should be taken seriously and must be refuted. 1/

Let's start with the NATO expansion. It is true that Ukraine applied to integrate with a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008. But nothing happened, there was no roadmap, there was no feasible path forward for Ukraine to join NATO. 2/

In fact, if NATO membership was granted then, there would be no war today.

But let's get back to the facts and the timeline. In 2010, Yanukovych put a stop on the Ukrainian aspirations to
join NATO. There were no protests. Not many Ukrainians cared at the time. 3/

But in 2013, Yanukovych refused to sign a trade deal with the EU. This time the protests followed. Yanukovych tried to suppress them, and the revolution took place. 4/

The key here is that the protests and the revolution happened over association with the EU, not NATO.

The conflict with Russia and the war has never been about NATO. NATO was never a realistic prospect. But it is the desire to move closer to the EU that angered Russia. 5/

Also, if Jeff is right and Russia was provoked by the NATO expansion to Ukraine, then Russia should not have tried to grab Ukraine's land prior to 2008, the year when Ukraine applied to NATO membership plan. But it did. 6/

In 2003, 11 years before Crimea annexation, Russia tried to grab a small island in Kerch straight between Russia and Crimea by building a dam towards it. Ukraine resisted, there was a conflict, military got involved, but eventually Ukraine kept the island. 7/

Who provoked Russia then? NATO?

Then, 11 years later, Russia grabs Crimea. Is it NATO's fault? Was NATO expanding to Crimea or Ukraine at the time? Why annex Crimea and support the separatists in the East of Ukraine by training them, sending in troops, providing ammunition? 8/

So, the argument about NATO expansion as a provocation to Russia does not hold.
1. there was no NATO expansion despite Ukraine's aspirations in 2008.
2. Ukraine's aspirations got put to rest in 2010.
3. Russia tried to grab some Ukrainian land way before the NATO application.

Let's move claim 2: "the U.S. role in installing a Russophobic regime in Ukraine by the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian President, Yanukovych, in February 2014. The shooting war in Ukraine began with Yanukovych’s overthrow nine years ago, not in February 2022" 9/

Who shot first? Yanukovych's police. They killed over 100 protestors after failing to disperse the crowds. But Ukrainians would not have it and the government fell. Yanukovych flew to Kharkiv where he tried to create a separatist republic. 10/

That plan failed bc the local elites refused. And so he fled to Russia. So, yes, the war started in 2014 by the pro-Russian president who refused to move to wards Europe, killed protesters, tried to split the country, and fled to Russia. How is the US or NATO at fault? 11/

Was it NATO who started the protests? What is the US who violently overthrew Yanukovych? Or may be the US orchestrated the protests and misled Ukrainian public? No.

This argument robs the Ukrainians of agency and assumes that the will of people is shaped in Moscow or Washington.

But it is not the case. Ukraine has demonstrated this so many time during this war. It is the will of the people that determines the event in Ukraine, not some politicians in other countries. Jeff overestimates the importance and influence of Washington on Ukrainians 12/

But let's look at the facts. The revolution started by a FB post by Mustafa Nayem who asked people to come out to the streets and stay there to protest Yanukovych's decision to pull out from the EU association agreement. 13/

Many people came, mostly students. But the protests were not massive until the police beat up the students. Was it NATO or the US who recommended the government to brutally crack down on the students? No! It might have actually been Moscow, but we do not know for sure. 14/

Only then the protests became massive. Then, the government made the next fatal mistake by shooting protestors. After that, the revolution started.

The US and NATO did not create the revolution. The government and the people of Ukraine did. 15/

Jeff's arguments assumes a simplistic worldview where a few powerful people in DC and Moscow shape the fate of the world. But no one is that powerful and the evidence speaks to the contrary. 16/

Jeffrey then puts forward multiple quotes and sources that try to convince us that NATO enlargement was a major issue leading up to the war. Yes, in the Russian propaganda narrative, but not in reality.

Here are three examples. 17/

He quote a US cable that says that "Russia is worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene". 18/

But there was no civil war in Ukraine and definitely not about NATO. It is Russia who manufactured fake civil war by bringing troops in and taking over control in Donetsk and Luhansk. 19/

Jeff says "the U.S. worked covertly to overthrow Yanukovych, as captured vividly in the tape of Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt planning the post-Yanukovych government weeks before the violent overthrow of Yanukovych"

Well, this is not what the tape says. 20/

The tape discusses the possible composition of the government as a part of the deal with Yanukovych not as a part of overthrow of him. At the time, the parties were negotiating a deal that would included some members of the opposition to become a part of the govt. 21/

Jeff also cites "former Zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych declared in a 2019 interview “that our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia.”

Well, Arestovych has made so many and so outlandish claims that you can find any quote you want. And he was not Zelensky's advisor

Jeff creates a plausible sounding argument, but it collapse when you look at the facts.

NATO expansion was not the reason for the war. But the war might achieve just that - NATO expansion. Why? Because Russia threatens and attacks neighboring countries, while NATO doesn't. 23X

Here is the source: commondreams.org/opinion/the-wa…