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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 27, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on #Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar052623 ImageImageImage
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). ImageImage
3/ A prominent milblogger claimed that Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka caused elements of the “Veterany” private military company (PMC) to retreat up to a kilometer from their previously held positions in the area.
4/ Milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces captured elevated positions along the E40 (#Bakhmut to Slovyansk) highway near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and that fighting is ongoing in the area. Image
5/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Klishchiivka and crossed the Siverskyi Donets Canal, possibly threatening to encircle the settlement and force Russian forces to retreat towards the east. Image
6/ Geolocated footage published on May 24 and 25 indicates that Russian forces likely regained limited positions west of Klishchiivka, however.
7/ ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may struggle to conduct a relief in place of #Wagner forces in #Bakhmut, and successful limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks will likely complicate their ability to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar052623 Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 19
Iranian President #Raisi and several senior officials were in a helicopter crash earlier today. What’s happening in #Iran and what does it mean for the future of the regime? 🧵 1/11
Iranian media reported earlier today that Raisi and several members of his administration including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian were in a serious helicopter crash in Iran. 2/11
It is unclear if any officials have died in the crash. Search and rescue teams have suspended unsuccessful aerial searches because of bad weather. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 19
Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast and near Hulyaipole and Robotyne in Zaporizhia Oblast. (1/4)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on May 17 and 18 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced east of Yasnobrodivka (west of Avdiikva) and southwest of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka).
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3/ Geolocated footage published on May 17 shows that Russian forces advanced north of Marfopil (southeast of Hulyaipole), and a Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces advanced in the area
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Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 19
Russian forces are likely preparing for the second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russian forces likely intend to launch following their anticipated seizure of Vovchansk. (1/4)
Image
2/ Available evidence indicates that Russian forces have so far only committed a limited amount of the prepared forces that Russia maintains in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts for offensive operations in the area. Image
3/ Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations in the international border area before they completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and will likely continue offensive operations in the border area in waves as the Russian military attempts to reinforce the grouping.Image
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 18
Frontline Updates 🧵(1/8)

Northern Kharkiv: Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi on May 17 and reportedly advanced near Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.Image
2/ Luhansk: Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna on May 17, although there were no confirmed changes to the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front.Image
3/ Bakhmut: Russian forces continued assaults near Chasiv Yar on May 17 but did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian forces also continued ground attacks in the Siversk direction near Spirne (east of Siversk), Vyimka (SE of Siversk), and Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) on May 17.Image
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 18
More Key Takeaways from the May 17, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (🧵1/9):

Zelensky stated that UKR forces have stabilized the front in northern Kharkiv Oblast and that RU forces have not reached Ukraine's "concrete" and "most powerful" line of defense in the area.
2/ Russian forces will likely be able to stretch Ukrainian forces along a wide front and fix Ukrainian troops in the international border area even as the tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast slows.
3/ Russian forces reportedly leveraged notable electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to support tactically significant gains during the first days of their limited offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 17
NEW: Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease. (1/4)Image
2/ Russian fixed-wing aircraft have increasingly targeted Kharkiv City and its environs with glide bombs and various missile strikes in recent weeks to degrade Ukrainian defenses and prompt residents to flee the city. Image
3/ Sufficient air defense coverage in the Kharkiv City area would allow Ukrainian forces to constrain Russian aviation operations, but only if Western countries permitted Ukraine to use the systems to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace since Russian aircraft can strike Kharkiv City without ever leaving Russian airspace.Image
Read 4 tweets

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