Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on #Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar052623
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ A prominent milblogger claimed that Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka caused elements of the “Veterany” private military company (PMC) to retreat up to a kilometer from their previously held positions in the area.
4/ Milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces captured elevated positions along the E40 (#Bakhmut to Slovyansk) highway near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and that fighting is ongoing in the area.
5/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Klishchiivka and crossed the Siverskyi Donets Canal, possibly threatening to encircle the settlement and force Russian forces to retreat towards the east.
6/ Geolocated footage published on May 24 and 25 indicates that Russian forces likely regained limited positions west of Klishchiivka, however.
7/ ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may struggle to conduct a relief in place of #Wagner forces in #Bakhmut, and successful limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks will likely complicate their ability to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar052623
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NEW: Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
More Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/7)
2/ Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukrainian forces can leverage tactical and technological advantages to offset Russian materiel advantages.
3/ US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on August 23.
NEW: Ukrainian forces marginally advanced throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 22.
The Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, possibly in an effort to stabilize the lines and improve command and control (C2) over Russian conscripts. 🧵(1/5)
2/ The scale of the redeployment of the 56th VDV Regiment is unclear from available information in the open source but is consistent w/ ISW’s observation that Russia has been pulling forces from less critical sectors of the frontline such as Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
3/ ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military will likely continue prioritizing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine – namely in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
NEW: Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Iranian security establishment may calculate that a continued delay will generate operational surprise while forgoing strategic surprise, though the continued Iranian delay has also enabled the United States to move more assets into the theater to defend against an attack.
3/ Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 14 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 21. Hezbollah launched two separate one-way attack drone attacks targeting IDF surveillance infrastructure Jal al Alam and Israeli forces at Kiryat Shmona. Hezbollah also launched Katyusha rockets targeting Israeli forces in Ramot Naftali, northern Israel.
Exploiting Russian Vulnerabilities: A Strategy of Persistence and Momentum
The Kremlin is cognizant of its vulnerabilities and Western opportunities to exploit them. US persistence and momentum are key to denying Russia the ability to sustain its war against Ukraine. 🧵(1/5)
2/ Western strategy should focus not only on imposing multiple dilemmas on the Kremlin but also on imposing the most painful ones.
First, Russia’s military failures are a lynchpin that makes other actions to degrade Russia’s military capability more effective.
3/ Helping Ukraine restore maneuver to the battlefield, building on momentum afforded by Ukraine’s operation in Kursk, and reinforcing the already successful efforts to demilitarize Crimea are therefore strategic, not only operational, priorities.
2/ Ukraine's Special Operations Forces posted footage on August 21 showing Ukrainian strikes on several pontoon bridges and staging areas along the Seim River in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the current Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
3/ Geolocated footage published on August 21 shows drone operators of Russia's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade striking Ukrainian forces in and around Vishnevka, confirming that Ukrainian forces have likely advanced into and beyond the settlement.
Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. 🧵(1/5)
2/ Russian forces advanced east and southeast of Toretsk amid continued offensive operations in the area on August 20. Geolocated footage published on August 20 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Tsentralna and Molodizhna streets in northwestern and western Pivnichne (east of Toretsk).
Additional geolocated footage published on August 14 and 18 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northwestern and western Zalizne (east of Toretsk) and have seized the Artem Mine's waste heap (on the western outskirts of Zalizne).
Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that sources within the leadership of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Toretsk direction stated that Ukrainian forces still "control" around 20 percent of Niu York, but that Russian forces are advancing in the area.
Russian milbloggers reiterated claims that Russian forces cleared Ukrainian forces from Niu York (south of Toretsk), completely seized Niu York, and advanced towards Nelipivka (just north of Niu York and south of Toretsk), although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.
3/ Russian forces recently marginally advanced east of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations in the area on August 20. Geolocated footage published on August 20 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within southeastern Hrodivka (east of Pokrovsk).