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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Institute for the Study of War
@TheStudyofWar
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: https://t.co/FO1PVyOnYB
Fellakommando Südost 🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture Sue Strong @strong_sue@mastodon.sdf.org 🇺🇦 Profile picture Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture 🇺🇦🐱 https://mas.corq.co/@rogue_corq 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦 Profile picture Perpetual Mind Profile picture 201 subscribed
Apr 18 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: A Russian victory is an Iranian victory. Those concerned with the growth of Iran’s military power, ambitions, and aggression in the Middle East must recognize the degree to which Iran’s fortunes rise and fall with Russia’s. (🧵1/9)Credit: The Presidential Office of Ukraine. Originally posted: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/sogodni-mi-zgaduyemo-vignannya-nacistiv-nablizhayuchi-vignan-78753 2/ Russian and Iranian military forces have been fighting alongside one another in Syria for nearly a decade.
Apr 18 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City on April 17. (1/4)

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Image 2/ Geolocated footage published on April 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along a railway line SE of Ocheretyne (NW of Avdiivka). Geolocated footage published on April 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within western Orlivka (west of Avdiivka). Image
Apr 17 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Senior Iranian officials emphasized that Iran would strike Israel again “faster and stronger” if Israel retaliated to Iran's April 13 missile and drone attack.

Key takeaways from the 16 APR Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats ⬇️Image 2/ @washingtonpost reported on April 15 that 17 Iranian officials visited a Russian air defense system factory in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in March 2023. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Apr 16 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8)Image
Image 2/ The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine.
Apr 16 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City as of April 15. 🧵(1/6)


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Image 2/ Geolocated footage published on April 9 indicates that elements of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] Army Corps [AC]) advanced northwest of Vesele (northeast of Bakhmut and south of Siversk). Image
Apr 15 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
2/ Russian forces have experimented with cruise missile, ballistic missile, and drone strikes of varying sizes and combinations, and are now routinely conducting large, combined strikes against targets in Ukraine. 3/ Iran’s similarly large, combined strike package was far less successful than recent Russian strikes in Ukraine, however, with Israeli air defenses intercepting almost all of the roughly 320 air targets except several ballistic missiles.
Apr 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2024

Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes. (1/4)Image 2/ The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
Apr 14 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. 🧵(1/9)Image 2/ The strike package was modeled on those the Russians have used repeatedly against Ukraine to great effect.

The strike consisted of approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.
Apr 14 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The Russian military command likely assesses that Ukrainian forces will be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in or the permanent end of US military assistance. 🧵(1/8) 2/ Though Russian forces likely lack the ability to conduct more than one simultaneous effective large-scale operational effort as they have throughout the war, Russian forces are now able to use multiple alternating offensive efforts to stretch Ukrainian defensive capabilities amid Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages.
Apr 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force launched a large-scale drone and missile attack from Iranian territory that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on April 13 - the first time Iran has targeted Israel directly from Iranian territory. (1/5)Image
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Image 2/ Members of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” appear to have conducted attacks targeting Israel simultaneously with Iran’s first wave of attacks.
Apr 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: Tonight's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment considers several most dangerous courses of action (MDCOAs) that could occur if Ukrainian forces continue to suffer from critical shortages in essential artillery, air defense, and other munitions and systems. (1/4)Image
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Image 2/ ISW is not currently forecasting that these MDCOAs will occur, and, on the contrary, assesses that they are very unlikely to occur if additional US and Western aid is rapidly forthcoming.
Apr 14 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: The composition of the ongoing Iranian attack on Israel is similar to that of strikes that Russia has repeatedly conducted against Ukraine in efforts to determine the optimal package to penetrate Western-style air- and missile defenses. 🧵(1/8)Image 2/ The Iranian drone and missile attack into Israel shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel and the US.
Apr 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
More Key Takeaways from the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance. 2/ Russian forces are domestically producing and fielding a new air-to-surface subsonic cruise missile against Ukraine designated the Kh-69 as part of continued efforts to improve strike packages and penetrate Ukraine’s degraded air defense.
Apr 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia’s ongoing strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities aims in part to devastate the Ukrainian defense industry. (🧵1/5)Image
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Image 2/ Putin's statement confirms ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity.
Apr 12 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses due to delays in resuming US aid to Ukraine and improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to the increasing effectiveness of Russian strikes against Ukraine w/o an increase in the size or frequency of such strikes. (🧵1/5)Image 2/ Russian forces have inflicted increasing and long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure this spring. The increased effectiveness of Russian strikes does not appear to result from the use of more missiles and drones in each strike.
Apr 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reported that EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the “chronic threat” that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO. 🧵(1/6) 2/ Cavoli stated during a briefing to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on April 10 that Russia poses a “chronic threat” to the world and warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to limit or stop his aggression at the borders of Ukraine.
Apr 11 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 🧵(1/6)Image
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Image 2/ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense batteries to protect both Ukraine’s population centers and frontline areas.
Apr 10 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Russian forces recently advanced west of Avdiivka and likely captured Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka) as of April 9. Additional geolocated footage published on April 9 shows that Russian forces advanced in fields northeast of Netaylove (immediately west of Pervomaiske). (1/5)

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Image 2/ Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on April 8 shows that Russian forces made gains along Vatutin Street in southeastern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City) following a mechanized assault with roughly two platoons. Image
Apr 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
IRGC Navy Commander Rear Adm. Ali Reza Tangsiri implicitly threatened the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during an interview with Lebanese Hezbollah-controlled media on April 9, likely to pressure the UAE to sever ties with Israel.

More key takeaways ⬇️(1/7)
Image 2/ Tangsiri separately endorsed the strategy of “strategic patience” in response to the April 1 Israeli airstrike that killed seven IRGC officials in Damascus.
Apr 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: US, Israeli, and Iranian officials told the @nytimes that Iran is operating a smuggling network through Jordan to arm Palestinian fighters in the West Bank. (1/4)Image
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Image 2/ US and Israeli officials said that the Iranian-backed networks are specifically involved in moving small arms, anti-tank missiles, and RPGs.

Iran’s smuggling network in Jordan could enable already motivated militias in the West Bank to attack Israeli targets.
Apr 10 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Key Takeaways:

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on April 9 that it transferred roughly a brigade’s worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on April 4. 🧵(1/9) 2/ The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is likely responsible for a drone strike against the Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast overnight on April 8 to 9.