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The Institute for the Study of War is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. |
RobinK 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture 🇺🇦🐱🖤 🏳️‍🌈🐱🇺🇦 Profile picture The Pauler 🌻🇺🇦 Profile picture giovanni dall'olio 🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture 125 subscribed
Jun 2 4 tweets 3 min read
Geolocated footage published May 31 indicates that #Russian forces made marginal gains SE of Masyutivka (13km NE of #Kupyansk) in #Kharkiv Oblast.

The UKR General Staff’s mention of attacks west of Masyutivka likely indicates that Russian forces captured it on an earlier date. ImageImage 2/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka as early as May 15.
Jun 2 7 tweets 4 min read
Russian officials and milbloggers’ responses to the limited raid in #Belgorod Oblast are indicative of continued heightened anxiety within the Russian information space regarding the war in #Ukraine.🧵 2/ #Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on June 1 that #Putin constantly receives information about the situation in #Belgorod Oblast, and that Putin awarded Shebekinsky Raion Head Vladimir Zhdanov the Order of Courage for his response to the situation along the border.
Jun 2 9 tweets 3 min read
Geolocated footage published June 1 shows alleged Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) personnel operating near Novaya Tavolzhanka and LSR and Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) personnel striking RU positions near the settlement as well as Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast 2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian Border Guard Service and Federal Security Service (FSB) officers thwarted two motorized infantry companies reinforced with tanks that attempted to ”invade” Russian territory near Shebekino and Novaya Tavolzhanka.
Jun 2 7 tweets 4 min read
.@washingtonpost reported today that #Iran has been building and training forces to target and kill US personnel and expel US forces from #Syria, according to classified documents leaked on the Discord messaging platform:…⬇️ 2/ The article notes one document revealed that #Iran is training Iranian-backed forces to construct and use explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) against US forces in #Syria.
Jun 1 4 tweets 4 min read
Southern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces continue to concentrate in southern Ukraine. 1/4 Image #Ukrainian #Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that #Russian forces are replacing old and worn equipment — including T-72 and T-62 tanks and air defenses — in southern #Ukraine. 2/4
Jun 1 6 tweets 4 min read
The Kremlin may be attempting to reintroduce Kadyrovites as the main offensive force following the culmination of #Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines. 2/ ISW had previously assessed that Russian President Vladimir #Putin had been attempting to pressure #Kadyrov into increasing the role of Chechen fighters in combat operations since at least Putin's public meeting with Kadyrov on March 13.
Jun 1 4 tweets 4 min read
#Kadyrov claimed on May 31 that #Chechen forces received a new order and assumed responsibility over the #Donetsk Oblast frontline. 1/4 #Kadyrov noted that the #Russian military command ordered Russian, Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard), and #Chechen Akhmat forces to begin offensive actions along the frontline in #Zaporizhia and #Kherson oblasts as well. 2/4
May 31 6 tweets 3 min read
Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:

1/ Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs, which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in #Russia. 2/ The Russian MoD is reportedly continuing to recruit prisoners from regional penitentiaries. An independent RU outlet reported that Russian Penitentiary Service employees opened recruitment points in prisons and are recruiting prisoners who committed less serious crimes.
May 31 5 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in southern #Ukraine on May 30.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck objects across the southern axis. ImageImage 2/ #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on May 30 that Ukrainian forces are striking roads and bridges in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and struck the road connecting Russian-occupied Vasylivka and Dniprorudne. Image
May 30 6 tweets 5 min read
Eastern #Kharkiv/Western #Luhansk axis:

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of #Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 29. ImageImageImage 2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and did not conduct offensive operations in the Kreminna area. ImageImage
May 30 4 tweets 4 min read
#Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to #Belarus on May 28. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control. ⬇️ 2/ The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a video on May 28 showing a train with S-400 systems deploying to an unspecified area in #Belarus. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control.
May 29 4 tweets 4 min read
#WagnerGroup financier #Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in-place operation in #Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline & last until June 5. The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low.

Other toplines: 🧵⬇️ Image 2/ #Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s authority and regime. Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing #Bakhmut.
May 29 6 tweets 5 min read
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined #Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s authority and regime. 1/ Prigozhin responded to a journalist’s question about 🇷🇺 state media banning any discussions re: Wagner forces ... then gave advice to an unnamed official: “If you are starting a war, please have character, will, & steel balls—& only then you will be able to achieve something.” 2/
May 28 4 tweets 2 min read
Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:

The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group “Council of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to #Russia's ongoing and future force generation efforts. 2/ The “Council of Mothers and Wives” routinely advocated for their relatives serving in the Russian military by reaching out to local officials following the start of partial mobilization in late September 2022.
May 28 7 tweets 6 min read
Southern #Ukraine:

1/ Russian forces continued to target southern Ukraine with artillery, drone, and air strikes on May 27. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces’ primary tactic in southern Ukraine is counterbattery fire. ImageImage 2/ Ukrainian forces continued to strike rear logistical nodes in #Zaporizhia Oblast on May 27. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Polohy and #Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast on May 27. Image
May 28 4 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of #Kupyansk and south of #Kreminna on May 27. Geolocated footage published on May 26 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced NW of Bilohorivka, #Luhansk Oblast (12km south of Kreminna). ImageImageImage 2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka and Masyutivka, #Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk).
May 28 5 tweets 5 min read
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor #Girkin accused #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership. 2/ #Girkin openly accused #Prigozhin of planning to conduct a coup amid the upcoming Ukrainian #counteroffensive and of continuously violating Russian censorship laws against the discreditation of the Russian army and military command.
May 28 5 tweets 4 min read
The Russian military command may be transferring #Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve #WagnerGroup forces in #Bakhmut city, which may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. 2/ ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command has heavily committed a variety of DNR elements to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline. Russian attacks around Avdiivka-Donetsk City area appear to have been decreasing in recent days, which may be connected to the……
May 27 9 tweets 6 min read
The #Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to discourage continued Western aid to #Ukraine and to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to #Russia ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.🧵 2/ The #Kremlin claimed on May 26 that #Putin expressed “the openness of the Russian side to dialogue on the political and diplomatic track, which is still blocked by #Kyiv and its Western sponsors” in a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio #Lula da Silva.
May 27 7 tweets 4 min read
Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on #Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut. ImageImageImage 2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). ImageImage
May 26 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces continue to hand over positions in #Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense and withdraw from the city.

Our latest: ImageImageImageImage 2/ Prigozhin claimed on May 26 that the MoD is fulfilling its agreement by actively deploying regular Russian units to Wagner-held positions in Bakhmut city.