Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org.
241 subscribers
Mar 13 4 tweets 2 min read
MORE: Reuters reported on March 12 that senior Russian sources stated that a deal on the temporary ceasefire would have to "take into account" Russia's advances on the battlefield and "address [Russia's] concerns."

▪️ Bloomberg reported on March 12 that sources familiar with the Kremlin's thinking and the situation stated that Putin will "stretch the timeline" for agreeing to the temporary ceasefire in order to ensure that his stipulations "are taken into account."

▪️ A source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire but did not specify whether such a halt would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine or only those from select countries.

▪️ Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would "formally" give a "positive response" to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand "impossible conditions" to which Ukraine cannot agree.Image 2/ Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin them.
Feb 28 8 tweets 4 min read
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials continue to reject US negotiating terms and demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not occupy. Details⬇️(1/3)

▪️ Putin stated in his February 27 address to the Federal Security Service (FSB) board that Russia will continue to strengthen FSB operations in Donbas and "Novorossiya." Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed on February 27 that Donbas and "Novorossiya" are an "integral" part of Russia.

▪️ Putin and other Russian officials have previously defined "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts), although its precise borders are disputed among Russian ultranationalists.

▪️ Putin has previously demanded that Ukraine surrender all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts even though Russian forces do not occupy large parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

▪️ Putin and other Russian officials have routinely indicated that they aim for territorial conquest beyond the administrative boundaries of these four illegally annexed oblasts.

Renewed official Russian statements that the invented region of "Novorossiya" is part of Russia indicate that Putin maintains his maximalist territorial ambitions and is unwilling to offer territorial concessions.Image 2/ Russian forces currently occupy a small portion of Kharkiv Oblast and the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and are attempting to advance to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Image
Image
Image
Feb 21 8 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Ukraine Fact Sheet - February 21, 2025

Link to PDF w/ full details and references⬇️Image 2/ isw.pub/UkraineFactshe…
Jan 15 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW: The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's future membership in NATO. (1/3)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev rejected the suggestion that Russia could be willing to cede any occupied territory to Ukraine in future negotiations during an interview with Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda published on January 14 and stated that this idea is "not even up for discussion."Image
Jan 9 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Sources close to the Japanese government assess that the PLAN and CCG likely conducted a joint maritime blockade drill in the Miyako Strait for the first time on December 22. The drill involved three PLAN vessels and three CCG vessels. (1/7) Image 2/ The PLAN ships circumnavigated the southern tip of Taiwan and Japan’s Sakishima islands before entering the strait, which is located between the islands of Okinawa and Miyako in Japan’s Ryukyu island chain.
Dec 24, 2024 6 tweets 2 min read
NEW: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempts to recapture SDF-held ground on the west bank of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge.

Syria Key Takeaways 🧵(1/6):Image
Image
2/ Unspecified sources reportedly told Syria-based al Khabour News that the YPG threatened to cut off bread supplies to Hasakah if the people did not demonstrate in support of the group.
Dec 14, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read
Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. 🧵(1/8)

(📸: @Maxar) Image
Overview of the northern section of Russian Hmeimim Air Base on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Overview of the Russian naval base at Tartus on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
2/ Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 13 that an unspecified source familiar with the matter stated that Russia is currently negotiating with unspecified new Syrian "authorities" about maintaining Russia's military presence at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus. Image
Dec 14, 2024 7 tweets 5 min read
NEW: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.

Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️🧵(1/7)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
Dec 13, 2024 4 tweets 3 min read
.@Maxar collected new satellite imagery this morning (December 13th) of the two primary Russian military bases in Syria—Khmeimim airbase near Latakia and the port/naval base at Tartus. Details ⬇️🧵(1/4) Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ At Khmeimim, @Maxar imagery shows two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at the airfield—both with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load equipment/cargo. Image
Image
Dec 11, 2024 8 tweets 5 min read
NEW: Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.🧵(1/X)Image
Image
Image
2/ Russian forces have advanced in western Novyi Trud and along the E50 highway south of Dachenske, narrowing the small pocket west of the E50 highway and south of the Novyi Trud-Dachenske line. This advance places Russian forces about 6km south of Pokrovsk. Image
Dec 11, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read
🧵(1/8)

Sentinel-2 imagery from Dec. 10 collected by @kromark shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. x.com/kromark/status… x.com/TheStudyofWar/…Image 2/ @MT_Anderson identified 4 Russian ships within this radius as of Dec. 10—the Adm. Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Adm. Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, & the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.
Dec 9, 2024 5 tweets 3 min read
The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 🧵(1/5) Image
Image
Image
2/ Russia has leveraged its Tartus naval base to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO's southern flank, and link its Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean Sea. Image
Dec 5, 2024 6 tweets 5 min read
NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2024: Mounting evidence continues to personally implicate Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials in the forced deportation and "re-education" of Ukrainian children in Russia. 1/6 Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ The US Department of State and Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab published a report on December 3 that states that Putin maintains primary control over and is the main decision-maker for Russia's deportation program.

Tonight's Report: isw.pub/UkrWar120424Image
Image
Image
Image
Dec 4, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term.🧵(1/7)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Satellite imagery from December 3 via @MT_Anderson showed that Russia removed three frigates, a submarine, and two unnamed auxiliary vessels from the base — amounting to all of the vessels that Russia had stationed at Tartus.
Dec 2, 2024 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation. (🧵1/5) Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Kremlin-affiliated Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev told the Financial Times that Putin will likely reject any plan for peace negotiations that US President-elect Donald Trump puts forth unless the plan accounts for Russia's "security concerns."
Nov 27, 2024 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good-faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks. 🧵(1/5)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin claimed on November 26 that Russia is open to negotiations but stated that Russia "categorically rejects" any "freezing" of the current frontline or the creation of a demilitarized zone.
Nov 25, 2024 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. Russian forces have been making gradual, tactical advances in southeastern Ukraine since Fall 2024. 🧵(1/7)Image 2/ The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023.
Nov 24, 2024 4 tweets 3 min read
NEW: The Russian MoD likely attempted to cover up the recent removal of the acting commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Colonel General Gennady Anashkin following widespread accusations within the Russian information space that Anashkin's subordinates submitted false frontline progress reports to superiors. (1/4)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Ukrainian military officials denied claims of North Korean personnel's presence in Kharkiv Oblast amid new unconfirmed reports that North Korean "technical advisers" are operating in occupied Mariupol. Image
Image
Nov 23, 2024 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. (🧵1/7)Image 2/ Iran is responding to the IAEA Board of Governors passing a censure resolution submitted by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on November 21. The resolution condemns Iran for failing to fully cooperate with the IAEA.
Nov 22, 2024 8 tweets 2 min read
NEW: The Houthis have become a major strategic threat with ties to multiple US adversaries. The US has sought to “avoid escalation” in response to Houthi actions since Oct 2023 with half-measures that have failed to materially degrade Houthi military capabilities. (🧵1/8) Image 2/ The Houthis are undeterred and have collected significant insight into US defenses against their attack systems of all varieties. The Houthis will almost certainly exploit this insight to improve the efficacy of their own attacks and provide it to other US adversaries.
Nov 22, 2024 4 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified his reflexive control campaign aimed at Ukraine and its Western partners by conducting an ostentatious ballistic missile strike against Ukraine that used multiple reentry vehicles on November 21. 🧵(1/4)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Putin explicitly threatened that Russia may attack Western countries that support Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia and rhetorically connected the November 21 ballistic missile strike to Russian nuclear capabilities — a marked intensification of an existing Russian information operation that aims to use explicit threats and nuclear saber-rattling to discourage continued Western military support for Ukraine.