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Fellakommando Südost 🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture Sue Strong @strong_sue@mastodon.sdf.org 🇺🇦 Profile picture Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture 🇺🇦🐱 https://mas.corq.co/@rogue_corq 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦 Profile picture Perpetual Mind Profile picture 221 subscribed
Jul 26 4 tweets 3 min read
Map Updates 🧵(1/4)

Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City amid continued assaults north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 25. Geolocated footage published on July 24 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Hlyboke.

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2/ Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Geolocated footage published on July 25 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Slavna Street within northern Zalizne (southeast of Toretsk) and along Zaporizka Street in central Zalizne.
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Jul 26 8 tweets 2 min read
The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time. 🧵(1/8)Image 2/ The Russian military has extensively relied on refurbishing stocks of Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, particularly armored vehicles, to sustain the tempo of its offensive operations in Ukraine.
Jul 26 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.
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2/ Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.
Jul 25 4 tweets 2 min read
Russia's ongoing force-generation efforts have allowed Russian forces to sustain their current tempo of offensive operations and maintain their current personnel replacement rate in Ukraine. (1/4)
Image 2/ Russian force-generation efforts so far have not enabled Russian forces to build up a significantly larger force in Ukraine and the Russian military remains incapable of conducting significantly intensified large-scale Russian offensive operations.
Jul 25 6 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Syrskyi told UK outlet The Guardian in an interview published on July 24 that Russian forces currently have 520,000 personnel committed to the war in Ukraine and that the Russian military aims to have 690,000 personnel committed to the war by the end of 2024.
Jul 24 10 tweets 3 min read
NEW: The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with a separate Chinese-mediated proposal for a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. 🧵(1/9)
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2/ The US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip. The Beijing proposal would amount to an Israeli defeat, if implemented.
Jul 23 4 tweets 2 min read
More:

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and a military air base in Rostov Oblast on July 22. (1/4)
Image 2/ Russia is taking steps to codify terms broadly expanding the Russian official definition of prosecutable extremism as part of its ongoing effort to criminally prosecute and stymie domestic opposition to the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine.
Jul 23 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russia and North Korea are pursuing increased cooperation in the judicial sphere. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea and met with his North Korean counterpart Kim Chol Won on July 22, marking the first time that a Russian Prosecutor General has visited North Korea.
Jul 20 6 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on July 19 and discussed an end-state to the war in Ukraine. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Zelensky stated that he agreed to talk with Trump about steps that will produce a fair and truly lasting peace at a future personal meeting. Trump stated that both Russia and Ukraine will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the war.
Jul 18 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade. (1/5)Image
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2/ Russian officials continue to seize on diplomatic meetings with European states to create the impression that Russia is normalizing its relations with the West and claim that there is limited Western support for Russia.
Jul 17 5 tweets 2 min read
Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian air defense systems in occupied Ukraine and in Russia’s border areas to set conditions to field F-16 fighter jets following their anticipated Summer-Fall 2024 arrival to Ukraine.

More key takeaways 🧵(1/5)
Image 2/ The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov from pre-detention on July 15 and placed him under house arrest until October 11.
Jul 17 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.”🧵(1/7) Image 2/ The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not officially confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Israeli journalists reported that the IDF assesses that the likelihood Deif survived the July 13 strike is “extremely slim,” however.
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Jul 13 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on the morning of July 13. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Russia and Iran continue to signal their commitment to deepening bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation.
Jul 13 7 tweets 2 min read
More Key Takeaways (🧵1/7):

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area

The US Department of Defense announced on July 11 a military aid package for Ukraine worth $225 million.



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2/ Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a phone call with US SecDef Austin to reiterate standard Russian threats intended to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-makers.
Jul 13 6 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. (🧵1/6)Image
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2/ UKR forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and UKR forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid.
Jul 11 4 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk. 🧵(1/4)


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2/ Russian forces recently crossed the Vovcha River into central Vovchansk amid continued fighting north and NE of Kharkiv City. Geolocated footage published on July 7 shows that Russian forces crossed the Vovcha River and hold positions on Kharkiv Street in central Vovchansk.
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Jul 8 6 tweets 3 min read
Map Updates 🧵(1/6)

Ukrainian forces recently advanced during tactical counterattacks north of Kharkiv City amid continued fighting north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 7.

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2/ Geolocated footage published on July 6 shows that Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Hlyboke while counterattacking in the area, and available satellite imagery suggests that Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack in the area between July 3 and 6.
Jul 8 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast on the night of July 6 to 7.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.Image
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2/ Satellite imagery confirms that the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a successful strike against a reported Russian regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast in late June 2024, likely with Western-provided weapons – further demonstrating how Ukraine could disrupt Russian offensive operations should the West continue to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
Jul 6 5 tweets 2 min read
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the soundest course of action for degrading Putin's confidence in and commitment to his desired end state for his war of aggression against Ukraine. (🧵1/5)

2/ Putin's rejection of any ceasefire indicates that he is increasingly confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by continuing creeping advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
Jul 6 7 tweets 2 min read
Putin is demanding both the surrender of a significant portion of Ukraine's territory and people to Russian occupation and Ukrainian military capitulation in advance of any negotiations on an end-state to the war. (🧵1/7)

2/ Putin called for the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from "Donbas and Novorossiya" as a prerequisite for ending the war during his press conference with Orban.
Jul 6 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood. (🧵1/4)Image
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2/ Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement on July 4 in a departure from his usual feigned interest in negotiations, and Putin notably outright rejected any negotiated ceasefire in a July 5 press conference w/Orban.