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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: https://t.co/FO1PVyOnYB
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Nov 18 6 tweets 4 min read
NEW: Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints.

Special Report: The Ukrainian Defense of Pokrovsk Has Compelled Russia to Change Its Approach in Eastern Ukraine 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Russian forces launched offensive operations intended to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast during Spring 2024 at the moment of greatest constraints on Ukraine's manpower and materiel following the suspension of US assistance in Fall 2023. Image
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Nov 17 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints.
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2/ Zelensky said during an interview that Russian forces are currently advancing along the frontline due in part to decreased Ukrainian morale exacerbated by delays in staffing & equipping new Ukrainian brigades and granting frontline Ukrainian defenders necessary rest/rotation.
Nov 15 5 tweets 2 min read
1. Putin modified compensation promised for Russian servicemen wounded while fighting in Ukraine — a clear indicator that the Kremlin is trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of the war and restore balance to the Russian economy. 🧵(1/5) Image 2/ Putin originally introduced the policy offering all wounded Russian servicemen three million rubles to incentivize military recruitment after he had decided against declaring general mobilization in Spring 2022.
Nov 14 5 tweets 2 min read
ICYMI: Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. If we lean in and surge, Russia loses. (🧵1/5)Image 2/ The notion that the Ukraine war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate.
Nov 10 7 tweets 2 min read
Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains. 🧵(1/7) 2/ ISW previously observed data indicating that Russian forces have lost at least five divisions' worth of armored vehicles and tanks in Pokrovsk Raion alone since October 2023.
Nov 9 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin's interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return. 🧵(1/5)Image
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2/ Putin stated during his November 7 Valdai Club address that he is open to discussions meant to "restore" US-Russia relations but that the United States must initiate these negotiations...
Nov 8 6 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to shape US President-elect Donald Trump's foreign policy and achieve another Russia–US reset on Russia's terms. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Putin addressed the 21st annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club on November 7 and advocated for a reset of US–Russia relations. Putin implied that Trump’s presidential campaign expressed a "desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis" and later noted that Russia is open to the "possibility of restoring relations with the United States."
Nov 8 4 tweets 2 min read
Iranian Retaliation Against Israel: Recent statements by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders suggest that the IRGC may conduct a direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory in response to the October 25 Israeli strike targeting Iran. Iran may conduct a smaller-scale direct attack on Israel than it did in April and October 2024 to preserve its diminishing long-range missile stockpile.Image 2/ Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described the features a future supreme leader should embody during his first public meeting with the Assembly of Experts on November 7.
Nov 6 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW: The PLA maintained a high number of incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone in October, consistent with the new normal it established since ROC President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration. (🧵1/4)Image 2/ Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ 370 times in October. The PRC increased ADIZ incursions significantly after Lai’s inauguration in May, with over 300 incursions every month since.
Nov 6 7 tweets 4 min read
Key takeaways from the latest Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats:

Post-War Control in the Gaza Strip: Fatah is attempting to extend its control over the Gaza Strip after the October 7 War, but Fatah’s lack of pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated military forces in the Gaza Strip will make this extremely difficult. Fatah likely views the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ weakened military position as an opportunity to confront Hamas over Hamas efforts to maintain control in the Gaza Strip.Image
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2/ Israeli Military Operations in the Gaza Strip: Israeli forces are conducting a major clearing operation across the northern Gaza Strip to disrupt militia reconstitution efforts. Palestinian militia elements could continue attacks in Jabalia after the IDF withdrew there in May 2024, though it was unclear how effective the Hamas military organization in Jabalia would continue to function. Hamas’ military wing has probably attempted to rebuild itself where possible in Jabalia since May 2024. It is unclear how successful these efforts would have been, however, given Hamas’ inability to resupply its fighters and attrition during Israeli operations in May.
Nov 6 8 tweets 6 min read
Map Updates 🧵(1/8)

Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne.

Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.Image
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2/ Kharkiv/Luhansk: Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Kreminna amid continued Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 4 and 5. Geolocated footage published on November 4 and 5 indicates that Russian forces advanced west of Novoselivske (southeast of Kupyansk) and to a windbreak in northern Terny (northwest of Kreminna).Image
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Nov 5 6 tweets 2 min read
In essence, Moscow was asking Ukraine to willingly give up its military, its offensive and defensive capabilities, its land, a significant portion of its population and economic capacity, and cease protecting its language, history, and culture. 🧵(1/6) Image 2/ The Kremlin has been incessant in its claims that it set out to negotiate in March 2022 (after illegally invading Ukraine) but that it was Ukraine and the collective West that destroyed the prospect of negotiations.
Nov 4 7 tweets 3 min read
More Key Takeaways 🧵(1/7)

West Bank: The Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Iran is “pouring everything [it] can” into the West Bank, indicating that Iran will very likely attempt to pursue a different strategy when rebuilding Hamas to fight Israel again.Image 2/ Syria: The IDF captured a Syrian man who was collecting intelligence on Israeli border arrangements during a ground raid in southern Syria. This Iranian-led intelligence effort is likely an attempt to gather information on Israeli border security that Iranian-backed militias could use to undertake small-scale infiltrations into the Golan Heights.Image
Nov 1 8 tweets 2 min read
Key Takeaways from our new report (🧵1/8):

The implications of a long-term alignment between Russia and North Korea extend far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine and may have long-term impacts on the stability of the Korean Peninsula and Asia-Pacific region. 2/ The war in Ukraine will change the character of all future wars, and Pyongyang has evidently identified this fact as a vital learning opportunity for its forces.

North Korea's military has not experienced large-scale conventional combat since 1953 and understands that its doctrine is unprepared to fight in a modern war, especially against a sophisticated adversary such as South Korea.
Nov 1 9 tweets 2 min read
NEW REPORT: North Korea has deployed a contingent of troops to Russia in support of Russia's war in Ukraine —the latest development in intensified cooperation between the two countries since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (🧵1/5)Image 2/ The Kremlin is likely to leverage North Korean manpower to support its ongoing offensive efforts and offset requirements of Russia's domestic force generation capacity.
Oct 31 6 tweets 2 min read
The Ukraine war is demonstrating dramatic changes in the character of war in five main ways (🧵):

1) The effectiveness of integrated air/missile defense (IAMD) against even intensive and complex air/missile attack (a phenomenon also visible in Iranian attacks against Israel); 2) The ability of enormous masses of tactical drones—millions of drones used on both sides—to create partially transparent battlefields and constrain combat to positional forms;
Oct 31 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Western intelligence officials reportedly stated that North Korean troops are in an unspecified area in occupied Ukraine. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ @CNN, citing two unspecified Western intelligence officials, reported on October 30 that a small number of North Korean personnel are in occupied Ukraine but did not specify their location — the first such confirmation from Western sources.
Oct 30 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent w/ positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver—emphasizing how generally stagnant Russian advances have been after over two and half years of war. 🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Recent Western reporting linking the Russian rate of advance in September 2024 with Russian advances at the start of the war is highly misleading.
Oct 29 4 tweets 2 min read
MORE: Unspecified sources within the Israeli defense establishment reported that Israel’s attack destroyed all of Iran’s long-range surface-to-air missile batteries and long-range detection radars, leaving Iran with only domestically produced short-range defense batteries.

Western reporting has confirmed damage at a storage unit within the Abadan oil refinery in Khuzestan province and a TIECO oil and gas machinery factory in Tehran province, among others, following the IDF strikes. 🧵(1/4)Image 2/ Unspecified Iranian sources told Israeli media that Israel also targeted and breached Iranian radar systems in Syria before launching its attack on Iran. The sources noted that the radar screens in Iran’s defense systems “froze“ before the IDF strikes. CTP-ISW previously reported that the IDF likely targeted Iran’s early detection network in Syria and Iraq which would have given Iran advanced notice of the incoming Israeli attack.
Oct 28 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25. 🧵(1/7)Image 2/ The IDF struck three or four S-300 sites, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran.[2] Three unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times that the IDF strikes have caused major alarm among Iranian leaders.
Oct 28 7 tweets 2 min read
Special Report: Possible Russian Gains in Georgia & Moldova 🧵1/7

The Kremlin continues to pursue its longstanding hybrid warfare efforts to regain effective control of the territories of the former Soviet Union even as it seeks to gain control of Ukraine through military force.Image
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2/ The Russian invasion of Ukraine is supporting Russian hybrid warfare efforts in former Soviet states, particularly Moldova and Georgia, as pro-Russian local political leaders and influencers benefit from the implicit threat of Russian aggression against their states.