Patricia Marins Profile picture
May 27 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵1/6
If Russia destroyed 5 Patriot Batteries, why they didn't released the sattelite images?

I don't care about how many batteries were destroyed, but I want to talk about the failures of Russian sattelites over Ukraine.

What happened with the Russian space program? Image
2/6
Today, RU military satellites orbiting the Earth include 25 GLONASS satellites, 47 communications satellites, 6 satellites of the ECS missile warning system, 7 satellites of the Liana marine electronic reconnaissance system, some topographic, radar-location...
How many work?
3/6
Their yearly budget would be like USD 1.6 billions. Of these, (about USD 400−430m) went to GLONASS, (USD 100−150m) to the Plesetsk military space launching site, and near USD 1bn to other military projects in outer space.
Later more $1.5Bi for the GLONASS 2021−2030 program
4/6
RUaF has serious problems with space communications, despite formally 100 Military birds and the possibility to use the state civilian satellite systems Gonets and Express, as well as Gazprom’s satellite communications system. The main reason for these problems is unclear.
5/6
However, three attempts to launch a new generation of optical reconnaissance satellites in 2021−2022 were unsuccessful, and each of the launched birds quickly became off.

The RU space technology is becoming obsolete, lacking research investment. See the ASPII rank: Image
6/6
The UAF are using commercial satellite services from SpaceX, Planet Labs, Maxar and ICEYE for communication and operational target detection. Paradoxically, in doing so, they have a qualitative advantage over Russia, which has more than 160 satellites in orbit.
Note:
The intervals of images from Russian satellites are probably taking many days, probably 2 per week.

My opinion? Russia started to suffer from resource syndrome, as any oil/gas country who don't invest in research and become obsolete, ineffective until become a tech buyer. ImageImage
Note 2:
I did try GLONASS 8 years ago, the military and civilian versions. It loaded fastly in the systems. But a military space program is much more than positioning.

Corruption? It's a naive speech. Every army has corruption.
The problem there is much bigger: Deep Scrapping.

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More from @pati_marins64

May 23
🧵1/9
New players emerging in arms market.

Sometime ago I wrote about how expensive the western equipment became and, how new countries are emerging as defense exporters.
For example, I was explaining about some Turkish equipment costing just 35-50% of western equivalent. Image
2/9
From almost one decade RU is losing global market share of defense export.

In 2009-2013 RU had 27% of the global market;
In 2014-2018 this number was 21%;
And in 2017-2021 it reached just 18.6%;
My opnion? The quality isn't a problem for their equipment, but the post sales. ImageImageImage
3/9

Other countries are growing not only on the russian vaccum, but they will also take western clients.
Turkey is one of them. The Turkish defense industry became a global player, with air, ground and sea products.
The most inportant: They have price.
They will become a top 5. ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
May 23
🧵1/9
From last years, 6 countries emerged as competitive players in this market: India, Iran, Turkey, North Korea, China and Sweden. These countries have a variety of weapons and capacity to research, develop and manufacture.
But one even under sanctions, grew considerably:Iran.
2/9
Among them, the Iran deserve a deep analysis.
Iran didn't just bought it's technology from other countries. Their development involve some reverse engineering, but specially a heavy investment in research.
Second the ASPII TECH tracking, Iran is top 4 on some fields Image
3/9
Today The Iranian missile industry is recognized for the efficiency in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
How can a sanctioned country become leader in important technologies? The Persian relation to the sciences, can't be broken by few decades of sanctions.
nytimes.com/2020/02/19/us/…
Read 13 tweets
May 22
1/3
Recently I was talking to someone from an Arab defense company, who told me about the recent improvements in Iranian Air Defense systems. In fact Iran alone has more ADs than all EU together.

Differently from what people think, it's not just based on Russian technology. Image
2/3
The Iranian air defenses took the best from US Navy AD systems and the best from RU missiles to build their own systems.

I'm not sure but I think their radars are working with GaN. It's very similar to the AN/TPY 2 long range radar.
3/3
I've decide to study the development of Iranian Air defenses and I will make a thread to next days.
My perception from what I already know? Quietly Iran has already beaten the RU ADs, but it's just a feeling.
I want to see their reaction time. Software can be a limitation.
Read 7 tweets
May 21
🧵1/5
The new deliveries can give new capabilities for Ukraine.

During the entire war, Ukraine received mostly taxis for its troops. Were more than 4.500 APCs, MRAPs, Infantry Mobile Vehicles and others light vehicles. (like 75%)

Now it's different. Ukraine has combined arms.
2/5
Ukraine is getting near 100 heavy Tanks and 250 relatively modern Infantry Fight Vehicles.
Before Ukraine was receiving mostly outdated vehicles.

For the first time after exhausting it's tochka-u, the Ukrainian army can employ combined weapons, including 300km missiles.
3/5
The weak point keep being the artillery, including ammo. But nobody can deny a great improvement of Ukrainian forces for a probable counter-offensive.

The perspectives about the F-16 for me have a lower weight than 250 IFVs+100 Tanks.
I still believe this is a ground war.
Read 6 tweets
May 20
🧵1/9
Semiconductors for military proposes aren't a limitation for any country.

From many months the western media keep spreading the idea about semiconductors shortage being responsable for Russian low production.

This is just partially true.

Let see some examples:
2/9
A bit about RU chips:

"Marking this new era in Russia are recent manufacturing process implementations in: 130 nm and 90 nm, and eventually 65 nm; project announcements for 45 nm technology, dramatic escalation of Russia’s nanotechnology industry"

semi.org/en/About/SEMIG…
3/9

130/90/65nn are Obsoletes, but not for military use.

The HIMARS for example use a 90nm processor, what is perfectly normal. These systems aren't iphones or modern notebooks. Tit doens't need to process complex graphics or complex tasks.
They can be efficient with 90nm. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 18
🧵1/5
The insignificant cost of the decoys!

The use of decoys became a nightmare for the ADs from both sides.

At a rate of 100-150 decoys per week, the AD missile stockpiles can least to 6-8 months. But I assume that this would be a high rate even for decoys. ImageImage
2/5
We are talking about perfect copies of original missiles regarding size, speed and flight characteristics. This is enough to confuse the AD signatures.

My estimate cost for a decoy is something like $5k-$10k.

To understand better this, we need to know a missile structure.
3/5
We can consider:

Seeker Assembly - seeker, gimbal, radome...

Guidance Assembly - GPU, wiring, batteries.

Motor Assembly - rocket motor, fins, TVC system, etc.

Control Assembly - actuators, control fins, attitude control thrusters, autopilot, controllers

Warhead - ImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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