Thread by @MarkGaleotti

.@Stanovaya is always well worth reading but I'm not convinced we're just talking about a 'messiah complex' + a genuine belief on his part that everything will work out. If anything, the opposite: he's least able to make decisions when they're hard 1/
carnegieendowment.org/politika/89826

Micromanaging the war and aspects of reconstruction are distractions from the intractable big issues (like drawing up a detailed revision plan rather than actually revising!), a comfort. When faced with big, hard decisions (eg, end Kyiv offensive, leave Kherson) he dithers 2/

So he tends to make hard decisions too late and too badly - delaying mobilisation until after the campaign season and when so many trainers and so much kit had been lost was a case in point. His apparent desire to hold off any more mobilisations until after Sept elex another 3/

Putin is simply not doing his job: resolving damaging elite conflicts (it's not just Shoigu vs Prigozhin), setting broad policy and supporting its execution, providing the nation an icon around which to cohere. Instead, he's hiding in his bunker(s) and... 4/

...indulging himself, Nero fiddling while Rome burns*. He believes things will magically work out because he has to, one some level, but I suspect - and of course this is just a guess, who can really crawl into his brain** - that deep down he fears otherwise, but 5/

...fears the alternatives (peace, full-scale war, etc) even more.
* yes, I know this is a myth, but it's a nice metaphor
** and who, frankly, would honestly want to go into such a dark, miserable place
6/end