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If you test positive for Covid in the UK on an official reported test right now, what do you think your chances are of dropping dead within the next four weeks?
Right now, it's 1 in 25. 
4%
The moral of this story:
Don't get tested, and you won't die of Covid.
You'll just be one of the tens of thousands of 'excess deaths'.
That graph is the number of people who have died within 28 days of a reported positive covid test in a rolling 7 day window, over the number of people who tested positive in the 7 day window ten days earlier.
If you're wondering what it is that this graph shows...
It's mostly that testing has decreased by far more than deaths have decreased.
It's mostly that testing has decreased by far more than deaths have decreased.
So among the possible explanations are:
The people choosing who to test have become excellent at spotting who is going to die.
There are a lot more people dying from Covid, but we're not spotting them because we're not testing.
The people choosing who to test have become excellent at spotting who is going to die.
There are a lot more people dying from Covid, but we're not spotting them because we're not testing.
I know which one I think it is.
And I will tell you this for absolutely certain:
There are a lot more people dying within four weeks of a covid infection in the UK than are recorded in that data.
There are a lot more people dying within four weeks of a covid infection in the UK than are recorded in that data.
Like Trump said:
If you stop testing, you'll stop finding people dying of Covid.
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