Thread by @RALee85

Russia achieved limited tactical gains at high cost over the winter. Ukraine correctly held back resources and spent time regenerating offensive potential to give itself a better chance of achieving operational-strategic level gains this summer.
19fortyfive.com/2023/05/sad-re…

If Ukraine had committed all of its resources to the front over the winter, Russia likely wouldn't have made any gains but Ukraine would have reduced its chances for achieving a breakthrough this summer.

I think some people assume that both sides commit all of their resources to the front line at all times and that wars are linear, but that isn't how it works. Ukraine has a much better chance of making serious gains this summer than Russia had over the winter.

I think the focus on Bakhmut has given some people the wrong perception of the war, conflating a tactical-level battle (Bakhmut) with the strategic level. There were several other battles over the winter and none were successes for Russia.

There are still important long-term questions about ammunition availability and other variables, but I'm more optimistic about Ukraine' chances after Russia's failed winter offensive and recent announcements of more capable weapons' deliveries from NATO members.

Russia made some slow and costly gains last spring before that offensive culminated. Similar arguments were made then about the war's trajectory favoring Moscow, but the attrition Russia sustained set the conditions for Ukraine's successful offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.

Russian equipment issues are growing, and they are increasingly relying on convicts to fight/hold their lines. I'm skeptical that Russia can restore sufficient offensive potential to make serious gains. The question is whether they can defend the territory they currently control.