The Ukrainian Air Force says Ukrainian forces shot down 52 of 54 Shahed/ Geran-2 drones launched overnight. This is the most Russia has launched in one night. facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/p…
The Ukrainian Air Force says 9 Russian Tu-95MS bombers launched up to 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, of which 37 were shot down, and ~35 Shahed/ Geran-2 drones, of which 29 were shot down. An ISR UAV was also shot down. facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/p…
Russia achieved limited tactical gains at high cost over the winter. Ukraine correctly held back resources and spent time regenerating offensive potential to give itself a better chance of achieving operational-strategic level gains this summer. 19fortyfive.com/2023/05/sad-re…
If Ukraine had committed all of its resources to the front over the winter, Russia likely wouldn't have made any gains but Ukraine would have reduced its chances for achieving a breakthrough this summer.
I think some people assume that both sides commit all of their resources to the front line at all times and that wars are linear, but that isn't how it works. Ukraine has a much better chance of making serious gains this summer than Russia had over the winter.
Tough report about Ukraine's 28th Mechanized Brigade southwest of Bakhmut, "The major...told me that in Kherson his mortar teams had fired about three hundred shells a day; now they were rationed to five a day. The Russians averaged ten times that rate." newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
The above section is about fighting in January and the journalist embedded with the brigade in mid-March.
"Pavlo estimated that, owing to the casualties his unit had sustained, eighty per cent of his men were new draftees."
Important to emphasize that the 28th Brigade and other Ukrainian units held the SW flank of Bakhmut and prevented a encirclement, which meant the southern road could be used to reinforce and resupply Ukrainian units in the city.
The Deep State map indicates that Wagner forces have taken the western part of Bakhmut. It appears only the SW corner where the MiG-17 monument was located is still help by Ukrainian forces. deepstatemap.live/en#16/48.5758/…
.@CentreAST wrote about the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on future Russian military-technical cooperation and international arms demand. bmpd.livejournal.com/4689552.html
They think that, under the most optimistic conditions for Russia, Russian's international trade situation will not normalize until 2027-2028 at the earliest, which means Russian arms exports will remain constrained until then as long as sanctions are in place. 2/
They note that the ability of both sides to conduct maneuver became exhausted quickly, which led to a transition to positional combat. But they say it isn't clear if this was unique to this war or is representative of changes in warfare more broadly. 3/