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Let's try that again! I’ve been asked recently on news channels for my thoughts on the coming Ukraine counter-offensive, so here goes on this... 1/9
2/9 Shape, fix, probe, strike. We’ve had the first three, expect some more as violence increases, then concentration on Id’d weak points + reinforce success. Remember these western tanks can outmatch Russia’s - we’ll see how they perform against their anti-tank wpns
3/9 The R defences make things more difficult but can be overcome with the right prep + supp. Deep fires on both sides will be v important + I think Ukraine will have the edge when they concentrate at a time + place of their choosing
4/9 They are getting excellent intel support to help them identify that time + place. Plan will have been tested. Logs key to sustain momentum
5/9 The big unknowns are how does UAF perform when attacking with western kit, + how do R un/recently trained R conscripts perform in defence?
6/9 Thus morale + cohesion will be really important (again). Little evidence R training, leadership or morale has improved. Opposite- they are increasingly reliant on “Guard” units behind frontlines to deter deserters. R soldiers mainly motivated by money, + ultimately, fear
7/9 Otoh Ukrainians deeply motivated by community, patriotism + values. Love over fear. That really matters. R defenders will have to endure intense bombardments designed to break their will… Ukrainians itching to drive them out
8/9 So it’s on this point that I’m optimistic for a Ukrainian success. I’m hopeful that somewhere - maybe after a few days - they will find a weak point + rip through it
9/9 I’m not sure how big it’ll be vis a vis Kharkiv or Kherson, but I reckon they’ll at least break the R line somewhere in a significant way. 🤞, good luck + #SlavaUkraini
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