(1) That this is a question & (2) That I should “answer Elon’s question”
My reply:
(1) That’s not a question! (2) Every time Twitter is asked by a government to censor something they have a choice about whether to comply
It is certainly possible that if Twitter took an anti-censorship stance in response to government requests to do censorship that the censoring government would retaliate by banning Twitter or in some other way. It’s also possible that the censoring government would back down.
Elon Musk is a much more accomplished businessman than I am, and he surely knows better than I do that “invariably back down when faced with threats” is a questionable negotiating strategy.
But beyond that, the whole issue here is I poked fun at his claim to be an “absolutist.”
If Elon wants to say “it turns out that standing up against censorship comes with downsides and trade offs and I don’t think it’s categorically worth doing” that seems like a plausible business claim.
But then you’re not an absolutist.
Lots of people are not “free speech absolutists.” You might instead be a “profit-seeking businessman” or a “pragmatist who looks to a balance of considerations.”
But if you proclaim yourself to be an absolutist and then do a lot of censorship, people will poke fun at you.
That is my complete answer: I have no answer whatsoever to the question “how should @elonmusk run Twitter.”
It’s his company and he can do whatever he wants with it.
But I will continue to make fun of the absolutist thing as long as he deserves it, as is my right.
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If data centers were an important driver of rising electricity prices wouldn’t you expect Virginia, which has far and away the most of them, to have an unusually large increase rather than a small one?
Eyeballing the chart:
— Biggest hikes are in CA (wildfires) and ME (ice storms) physical infrastructure was destroyed
— Lowest hikes are in Plains and Southwest where wind/solar resources are abundant
— VA & TX added the most data centers and have unremarkable price trends
There’s been 25% overall price inflation during this time, so there’s arguably nothing at all to explain about increases of the scale we’ve seen in AZ/CT/MS/NH and many other states on this map — buying stuff and paying people just got more expensive.
I agree with all the points Tim is making here, but I also do think the relative price shifts and skewed technological progress are making everyone a bit crazy because a large fraction of the increased prosperity since 1995 takes the form of more digital entertainment.
If you took a 2025 person and subjected them to 1995 levels of phones, low-def linear television, FM radio and buying CDs, movies on VCR etc they would find it awful.
But also sitting at home, alone watching YouTube is not living the good life.
30 years ago there was enormous, totally sincere optimism about the internet and the potential for an “information superhighway” to change the world for the better and it’s largely turned out to just be supercharged television-watching.
I think if you want to understand what the minority of senate Dems who are supporting this deal are thinking, you actually do have to set the politics aside — they are concerned about the harm the shutdown is doing and high-mindedly want to bring it to an end.
I would say it’s true that the shutdown is causing harm, but the public is blaming Trump and he is crashing out and picking intra-party fights about the filibuster to try to save his ass.
But Dems don’t necessarily all believe their own story about blame and feel guilty.
I respect that perspective and want to somewhat reserve judgment until I understand more of the details of what’s in the appropriations bills, but this seems soft-minded to me and a little bit oblivious about the stakes.
I think the question of ~affordability~ is being conceptualized a bit incorrectly by the political system because of reluctance to acknowledge that inflation is primarily a macroeconomic phenomenon that needs macro solutions.
The rate of inflation has slowed a lot from its peak but not only has the price level failed to revert (probably impossible) the inflation rate itself has not fallen to the Fed’s target.
Solving this requires either higher interest rates (which nobody wants) or fiscal austerity (which they want even less) so there’s a lot of interest in diagnosing a distinct ~~affordability~~ problem that would have some other solution.
Really interesting new paper — while Americans *wages* are very stable from month-to-month their actual *earnings* show incredible fluctuations because hours worked are highly variable.
There are a lot of different potential sources of variation in hours worked, but the authors show that the dominant one is on the demand side — many employers like a "just in time" labor model where the workforce has unpredictable schedules.
There's a lot more detail and analysis in the paper (which frankly could have been multiple papers) but I think key results are that workers struggle to smooth consumption across this instability and their behavior suggests they really dislike the instability.
Key point in here from @Noahpinion — even if the AI tech turns out to be exactly as promising as the bulls think, it’s not totally clear whether this would mean high margin businesses.
A slightly random example but passenger jetliners have definitely worked out as a technology, tons of people use them and they are integral to the whole world economy.
But the combined market cap of Boeing + Airbus is unimpressive.
Jetliners seem a lot more important and impressive than the idea of a big box building supply store, but in terms of market cap Home Depot > Boeing + Airbus.
Technology is hard but then business is also hard.