Thread by @GoForGrubes2

This was excellent, and I wanted to delay posting prior to getting a chance to digest.

$BTU now has a MC of $2.7B and share price has steadily fallen since the 'Shareholder Returns' announcement.

With $1.3B of cash and Q2 likely to meet/exceed Q1 FCF - AND - 90%+ production

https://twitter.com/LeftskewedIM/status/1660383827410182144

Sold out for '23, I want to remind that BTU is not a proxy for a play on Coal Indexes.

The opaque nature of their sales, has pointed to multi-year agreements, which underperform indexes in 'up' markets - and might overperform indexes in 'down' markets.

The Mkt is now pricing

BTU at 2021 levels when Indexes were lower, the Company was burdened with high debt loads, they had little cash, and 'future' liabilities would be dealt with FAR into the future - assuming they would be dealt with at all.

That said, I think we are massively oversold here and I'm

now nibbling around the edges again.

Also, I believe that the Company is in active Share buyback mode based on very overwrought language w/IR.

I assume they will announce the extent of buybacks timed with Q2 earnings late July.

$159M of buybacks are like $250M of buybacks in

Q4 and Q1 share price. This should not be overlooked and will be an interesting metric to track.

The longer shares can be bought back under $20, the better for the LT health of the Co - and the share price.

Some Random Thoughts:
- I HATE the Shareholder Returns program and the

Prepaid ARO liabilities. This is BAD Capital Allocation.

#1 - A 30c Dividend is pointless and I'd rather see no dividend paid until the share price has a floor in the high 20's.

#2 - 65% of 'Adjusted' FCF are going to Buybacks. I'd like to see an adjustment to remove adjusted

From this measure. 60% of all FCF would be fine.

#3 - Recognizing the shareholder disgust at this price action, I'd like to see a 'new' $50M-$100M of cash utilized for immediate buybacks - as 'they realize that the extraordinary opportunity by the selloff' in the stock.

#4 - This Company LOVES sitting on cash. Q2 earnings are already 'baked'.

I'd like them to start deploying buyback Capital in advance of 'earnings' when earnings are known and the price is depressed.

I'd like to see urgency to hoover up as many shares under $20 as possible.

#5 - The Old Surety deal was backed by an untapped $300M LOC and liens on equipment.

The New Surety deal (so we are told), required $700M of liquidity on hand plus a prepay of all ARO obligations?

I don't buy this at all. This is the worst deal in History - and yet, will help

The Company IF they're aggressive with buybacks now.

#6 - Being debt free sounds great. But in my (tremdously spot on) Aug '22 Debt Threads, I suggested the Company take $500M of '28 or '29 Term Debt.

With ARO being pre-funded (big CF boost) and Retirement obligations also

Pre-funded, then the lack of 'proper' debt for the Company is...STOOOOOOPID

I'd take take $500M and earmark half for Buybacks and the other half for the North Goonyella re-start.

The excess cash yielded from Buybacks would pay for themselves during this period.

Final Thought

The Company is now actively shorted on downwards momentum and is likely to bounce soon.

If the Company can simply communicate Buyback actions/intentions - they can also cause a tremendous amount of short covering.

We will see a bounce and many will speculate about a new buyer,

When the actual case is simply a short who ended a great run.

Lastly, sentiment is completely bombed out.

Our top 'proponents' now ACTIVELY denegrate the stock.

If you ever called for BTU to be over $50-$70 on this site and now actively hijack threads about the company, with

Increasingly dire price targets, you not only are an unethical fuck head, but likely deserve a knock on the door from the SEC.

I would bet an appendage, that one of these people - who did the exact thing in Summer '22 - when I was one of 5 people reading his posts - has been

Actively short in large size, after calling for runs to $50 - $70 in early '23.

I would suggest leaving #coaltwitter immediately.

Tweets - even the deleted ones, are permanent.

For now, I'm going to root for big heat and a #hotcoalSummer